Daily Times

India, Pakistan’s next door neighbour, can rightly take pride in being an electoral democracy where relatively free and fair elections are held quite regularly though with the exception of the emergency years of Indira Gandhi. The last general elections in India were held in 2014 in which the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) outperformed the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) by winning 336 out of 543 seats. The latter only obtained 58 seats whereas the BJP secured 282 seats on its own.

Such a landslide victory enabled the BJP-led coalition partners to form government in more than a dozen of India’s 29 states as well as the union. Moreover, the BJP though witnessed increase in its vote share in South India, the local and regional political parties held sway in, for example, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Odissa. Similarly, in India’s capital, the Aam Aadmi Party kept the ruling alliance away.

Political scientists, especially from India, ascribed the BJP’s massive electoral win to various factors such as the party’s economic agenda, the disenchanted youth, Modi’s campaign skills, RSS’s organizational and religious outreach, the upper class’s effective use of lower caste (of which Modi is a part), regional parties’ organizational issues and Congress’s abysmal performance. All of these variables, in my view, should be summarized as the incumbency factor which has, over the years, become the hallmark of Indian general elections where the party-in-power, with minor exception, is replaced by the opposition party/alliance at, at least, the national level.

The recently concluded state elections in UP, Uttarkhand, Goa, Manipur and Punjab have surprised many pundits. According to the latest results, the BJP has won massively in UP (324 seats out of 403) and Uttarkhand (57 out of 70 seats). Surprisingly, however, the Indian National Congress (INC) staged a comeback by winning more seats as compared to the rival BJP in Manipur (28 out of 60), Goa (17 out of 40 seats) and Punjab (77 out of 117). Indeed, the INC shocked many by turning the tables on the ruling Akali Dal-BJP alliance in Indian Punjab.

The massive win of the BJP can be attributed to multiplicity of variables including its staunch stance on the county’s economic development, consolidation of Hindu vote and its effective use of the (social) media. Interestingly, though Modisarkar ignited anti-Pakistani rhetoric to move the voters in its fold especially in Punjab, that borders Pakistan, the anti-Pakistan mantra did not succeed all the time.

The BJP’s recent win carries certain implications not only for the party in the next general election, India’s domestic policy agenda but also for India’s foreign relations particularly with neighboring Pakistan. To begin with, since its victory in the general elections, the Modi-led BJP has adopted a revisionist policy towards Pakistan. This policy approach is in contrast with that of the Congress under Manmohan Singh. Being structurally and ideologically influenced by the RSS, the BJP has projected Pakistan and the (Indian) Muslims as part of India’s problems. Little wonder, communal violence against the Muslims is on the rise in the BJP-led states along with an increase in the incidence of skirmishes at the LoC and the Working Boundary. This is not to argue Pakistani state does not view India as an enemy. Indeed, Pakistani side too takes a revisionist view of India-1971 is a case in point.

Since the Modi government relied on military means to win elections especially in Punjab, the former is most likely to continue with this strategy in the future for purely electoral reasons by putting the Congress government under pressure. A heated LoC would also serve as tactical check in the neighboring state of Jammu and Kashmir where the BJP has a troubled coalition government. Moreover, as the general elections approaches in India by 2019, anti-Pakistan sentiment is likely to be further whipped up via the rightist media outlets.

This means until there is Modi-led BJP in power, peace with Pakistan is not even a possibility. There is further possibility on the behalf of the Modisarkar to take a tough stance on, for example, the 1960 Indus waters treaty. However, given the life and structure of this treaty, along with India’s record of treaty obligations, I do not see any unilateral breach of the treaty. In addition, India under Modi is likely to project Pakistan as terror-sponsor state regional and extra-regionally.

In the past, Pakistan has countered India’s move to isolate Pakistan. This is why the Islamabad is trying to diversify its foreign policy choices. The recently held Pakistan-Russia military exercise is a case in point. China, too, is most likely to support Pakistan diplomatically and financially. The Saudis and some Gulf states are also approaching Pakistan for defense and business reasons. Hence, in this age of economic regionalism, it is hard to isolate Pakistan with a history of alliances with one major power or another. Indeed, Pakistan’s bilateral relationship with the United States is yet not over.

It is a pity that the stalemate in India-Pakistan relations is likely to continue especially when we need regional cooperation on a number of issues. Modi and RSS’s stance on Pakistan bolsters establishment’s perspective of India as the greatest security risk to the country. In these difficult times, the media and civil society have a role to play. They must not give up the idea of enhanced people-to-people contact, cultural exchanges and challenging the state narratives.

The writer is a political scientist by training and professor by profession. He is DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright Fellow. Currently, he is a visiting scholar at Institute of International Studies, UC Berkeley. He tweets @ejazbhatty