Daily Times

There is a huge shift occurring in the power base of Pakistan. And, all elements of power as well as governments, past and present, have brought this about. Not to mention the fact that no aspirant to political leadership, currently on our political horizon, inspires any degree of confidence in me.

Moreover, I have long held that the Sharif brethren and their party have done my country least damage; over the last year circumstances have forced me to change my mind. Despite the fact that PML(N) has been less corrupt and has contributed to a modest economic recovery, I now hold the view that Nawaz Sharif has catapulted himself to qualify as the single most dangerous person to Pakistan.

Nawaz may shout himself hoarse about Judicial Martial Law; in my view he merely uses the term as an oblique accusation against the army’s announced support to the judiciary. I am in no position to verify or deny the army’s active participation in the political horse trading that has occurred and might still be ongoing. However, its support to the judiciary in anti-corruption is an announced position.

Judicial activism of a particularly intrusive kind is certainly the order of today. I am not sure if Iftikhar Muhammed Chaudhry, a previous CJ and strong practitioner of activism has mentored Saqib Nisar, our present CJ. But there is little doubt that Justice Nisar has outdone Chaudhry in all respects and has redrawn judicial lines well within the political arena.

In defense of Justice Nisar, I am compelled to add that all matters which he has taken up, including payments to sugarcane planters by sugar mill owners,  were those wherein political exploitation to foster corruption were involved and the governments were, at the very least, indifferent, if not colluding as beneficiaries. All of these might also be considered as political compulsions for better governance. And, unlike Chaudhry, Nisar has been careful not to sully his reputation.

The free and powerful Pakistani media seems to have become another deliberate casualty of this political strife for turf expansion. Geo TV’s mysterious disappearance for some days has successfully muzzled the entire media

Nonetheless, he too exceeds his limits. Ahsan Iqbal’s Iqbal might not be too elevated but, in my view, he is, for this occasion, well within his rights in demanding that, if there is wrong-doing on his part, the court should try him under law. No one, least of all, a judge and, least of, the least of all, the CJ should level derogatory accusations against any individual, which are not proven.

But there is far more going on in this multi-ringed circle that is our political arena. I cannot but appreciate the Machiavellian maneuverings executed by Zardari. A party that was considered ‘down and out’ a few months back has, not merely repositioned itself as the one in command of the senate; he has, while helping engineer the split within PML(N), recreated space for PPP within Punjab, where it was previously in a hopeless position.

All political parties have been developing schisms within. Some more than others. PML(N) has been particularly vulnerable since Nawaz’s ouster from power. And, developments since, have only exacerbated matters.

Consequently, it seems increasingly that the next elections will result in a hung parliament. Were that to happen, a coalition government will be necessary, irrespective which returns as the party with most seats. A coalition is, by definition, weak; necessitating repeated compromises; the last thing that Pakistan needs at this juncture.

From recent and prevalent events, it seems to me that this result is being sought by those engineering this situation. If that be so, the matter with all complications and consequences must have been discussed threadbare before concluding that this is our best option.

I, nonetheless, fear for the future. If we have a weak government and, if in the normal course of events, the CJ and COAS are replaced on completion of tenures, how will this politico-judicio-military hotchpotch work? Will the ingress that judiciary has made in the political arena be permanent? After all, the precedent for it has been set and the ingress continues to increase. Will the army’s non-interventionist policy in political spheres, but support for judicial ingress in political matters continue?

I must admit that, coupled with the bleak regional situation and the bleaker politico-judicio-military relations, I am not too hopeful for the next five years. However, I continue to pin my faith on 2023, our next elections. I hope a party of the youth emerges by then — a vibrant, dynamic, energetic party which awards tickets only to individuals below 45 years of age. Those who have a stake and an interest in the future of this country and people who can take ‘calculated’ risks in the collective interests of the peoples; not themselves.

The free and powerful Pakistani media seems to have become another deliberate casualty of this political strife for turf expansion. Geo TV’s mysterious disappearance for some days has successfully muzzled the entire media too. I miss Babar Sattar’s well-reasoned arguments in The News.

As I approached the conclusion of this piece, as a casual student of political science, I was struck by how Pakistan might be redrawing the pillars of state. Hitherto, conventional wisdom identified three: the legislature, executive, and the judiciary.

It appears that Little Pakistan has created fresh pillars of state and has created a new Hybrid Democracy. Wherein the judiciary, strengthened by the army and (slightly) muzzled media becomes the weight-bearing central, strongest pillar while the legislative and the executive will necessarily need to combine, to balance the most powerful strut to this democracy.

The writer is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)

Published in Daily Times, April 29^th 2018.