Daily Times

Ever since the Prime Minister during his visit to Bahawalpur on April 14 talked about creating consensus among political parties for the formation of new provinces, one can observe unleashing of debate on conceiving a new provincial map of Pakistan. It is the second time in the last five years that the debate on creating new provinces has been launched before the holding of general elections in July 2018.

Earlier, before 2013 general elections, proposal to create the province of Southern Punjab was submitted and approved by the parliament but couldn’t get through because of lack of two third majority in the Punjab Assembly. The resolve of eight breakaway law makers of PML (N) on April 9 this year to struggle for the creation of a new province of South Punjab and their formation of South Punjab Front is another indication of fresh drive to break Punjab and carve out a new province.

Why Pakistan has only four provinces as compared to 34 in Afghanistan and 29 in India? What are the impediments for creating new provinces in Pakistan and how a consensus could be developed among the major stakeholders to amicably change the provincial map of Pakistan?

After the break-up of Pakistan in 1971, Punjab emerged as the biggest province of Pakistan in terms of population while Balochistan as the largest in terms of territory. The provincial asymmetry in Pakistan is the root cause of inter and intra-provincial discords despite the promulgation of 18th amendment in the constitution of Pakistan which ostensibly guaranteed provincial autonomy to all the four provinces of country. The demand to establish new provinces in Pakistan during 2012 and 2013 only centered around Punjab with PPP government trying to carve out the province of southern Punjab while disregarding the division of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Balochistan and Sindh. The people of Bahawalpur since long are demanding their province but without any success.

The best solution to the issue of racial, lingual and ethnic assertion of identities is to upgrade Pakistan’s divisions to provinces, with proper planning and management so that power is devolved to the grassroots level

According to the 1973 constitution of Pakistan, creation of new province would require two-third majority in both houses of parliament and two third majority in the assembly of the respective province. When the bill to establish the province of Southern Punjab was passed in the National Assembly and in Senate, it couldn’t be passed by the Punjab assembly because of the lack of the required two-third majority. After the holding of 2013 elections, the debate on creating new provinces fizzled out and it is only when 2018 elections are approaching that some quarters are again raising the issue to establish new provinces in Pakistan. But, can there be a consensus on creating new provinces particularly in Sindh, Balochistan and KP? Will Punjab give up its majority if the provinces of Bahawalpur and South Punjab are carved out and Punjab is cut down to its size?

According to one school of thought, new provinces should have been established long time ago in order to avoid prevailing polarisation among federating units over the distribution of resources like water and allocation of funds. But, the controversy to establish new provinces bogged down on two things: should provinces be created on ethnic or lingual or administrative grounds. At the moment there are 26 divisions in Pakistan which may be upgraded as provinces thus mitigating ethnic and lingual discords in the country. Those favoring to upgrade divisions as provinces, for them the model is the United States, where all the fifty states do not reflect ethnic or lingual identities but are neutral. However, former Chairman Senate, Mian Raza Rabbani disagreed with the demand to create new provinces on administrative grounds because according to him such a step will undermine the cultural, ethnic and lingual identities of the people of Pakistan.

Three aspects of debate on new provinces in Pakistan need to be analysed. First, more than viewing the issue of new provinces from a realist paradigm, emotions and rhetoric shape the debate on dealing with a matter which concerns the present and future of Pakistan. Lack of seriousness and professionalism mark the debate and discourse on creating new provinces in all the four provinces of Pakistan.

For instance, those demanding the creation of Hazara province are unable to muster popular support as the Pakhtun dominated bureaucracy in Hazara knows how to weaken nationalist movement by promoting division in their rank and file. Same is true in Punjab, where the movement for the provinces of Bahawalpur and southern Punjab lacks dynamic leadership which can proceed with consistency and direction instead of playing in the hands of political parties who ostensibly support their demands but in practice try to neutralise their influence. And who can forget and ignore the case of Sindh where MQM, which since long had called for administrative division of the province composed of Karachi and Hyderabad has met a cruel and an unfortunate fate by experiencing inter and intra-party splits thus weakening their cause of a separate province in Sindh composed of Urdu speaking population.

Second, those favoring strong center and weak provinces possess their influence since the days of one unit which abolished provinces and established a separate province of West Pakistan  in 1955 in order to deal with the demographic edge of the then East Pakistan and strive for parity between the two provinces. While provinces in West Pakistan were restored by the martial law regime of General Yahya Khan in 1970, it was the 1973 constitution which ensured strong center and also strong provinces. Yet, Punjab’s population in post-1971 Pakistan, which constituted a majority caused insecurity and resentment among the provinces of Sindh, NWFP (now KP) and Balochistan. Punjab’s numerical strength and control over bureaucracy and military further compounded a sense of deprivation among small provinces. Traditionally, demand for a strong center has come from Punjab which saw nationalist and centrifugal forces a threat to the unity and integrity of Pakistan and a deviation from the ideology of Pakistan based on Islam. Punjab versus the rest appeared as a major source of instability compelling other provinces to formulate a common strategy to deal with Punjab’s control over the country’s power structure and resources.

The solution which nationalists have found to break the monopoly of Punjab is in the form of dividing Punjab into three provinces. Already, the demand for a separate province of Bahawalpur existed whereas the Seraiki belt in Punjab also began to assert for the recognition of their cultural and lingual identity into the form of a Seraiki province. But central Punjab, which is the bastion of power in terms of its infrastructural and industrial development and bulk of recruitment in bureaucracy and military officials, is reluctant to concede the demand to divide Punjab into three provinces as it will according to them open a Pandora ’s Box and destabilise Pakistan. Third, without proper planning and wisdom the drive to create new provinces will be counter-productive and provide an opportunity to centripetal forces block moves to seek new provincial identities. Already the trend to dub nationalist parties as unpatriotic is quite old.

The demand for new provinces would remain a source of conflict because of the lack of political will and determination on the part of major stakeholders to proceed in that direction. The best solution to deal with the issue of racial, lingual and ethnic assertion of identities is to upgrade divisions of Pakistan as provinces with proper planning and management so that power is devolved at the grassroots level and  financial/administrative empowerment is ensured particularly to backward divisions of Pakistan which may be upgraded as new provinces.

The writer is Meritorious Professor of International Relations at the University of Karachi. E. Mail: amoonis@hotmail.com

Published in Daily Times, April 27^th 2018.