Daily Times

The situation in Afghanistan is getting worse with the latest wave of attacks, which have killed dozens of people and injured hundreds. These attacks highlight the US failures in Afghanistan and militants’ success of getting a strong foothold even after 16 years of war. The resurgence of terrorists and their coordinated attacks are very alarming for peace in Afghanistan. The announcement of Donald Trump’s strategy for South Asia and the rising number of deadliest attacks raises questions for stable and peaceful Afghanistan in years to come.

The recent wave of attacks on high-security points reveals the reorganisation and capacity of insurgents to attack even after the US’ massive escalation in air strikes. The Afghan Taliban claimed the responsibility of the first two attacks while the third one was reportedly carried out by the militant Islamic State (ISIS).The uncertain situation in Afghanistan is very disturbing with the rise of militant attacks at the heart of Afghanistan. The situation in Afghanistan is very worrisome as the insurgents there have shifted their strategy to focus on the capital with an increase in attacks rather gaining territorial control. There seems a competition between Afghan Taliban and ISIS to make Kabul a horrifying place for security forces with increased attacks. Attacking the capital of Afghanistan serves the objective of militant groups to demoralise Afghan and foreign security forces.

It is in the security interest of Pakistan to cooperate with the US and international forces to contain violence and terrorism in war-torn Afghanistan

However, the Afghan National Army has done a great job and improved operational performance significantly but still lacks capabilities to tackle hardcore and organised terrorist attacks. Lack of competency of Afghan security forces has been exposed due to frequent security lapses in the capital. The situation in Afghanistan is extremely grave as ISIS is gaining grounds while Afghan Taliban control the majority of area Afghanistan. The ISIS is fighting both Taliban and Afghan security forces and claimed several high-profile terrorist attacks in recent months. ISIS has made inroads in northern and eastern provinces of Afghanistan, which resulted in increased attacks and civilian casualties.

The latest wave of militant attacks has come at a time when the US airstrikes have forced the militant groups and Afghan Taliban to retreat from some parts in western provinces. The US-led military operations have failed to curtail the rising insurgency in the surroundings of Kabul. The situation in Afghanistan is getting worse with the weakening control of the Afghan security forces. Washington has shown a strong reaction to violence in Afghanistan, and it seems that Trump administration will intensify more military options in Afghanistan. President Trump vowed to finish the battle in Afghanistan while speaking at the UN Security Council at the backdrop of Kabul attacks. ‘What nobody else has been able to finish, we’re going to be able to do it’. Nevertheless, Trump’s approach towards Afghanistan is not much different from previous US administrations after 9/11. It seems unlikely to end the war in Afghanistan through massive air strikes by US forces.

Trump is in no mood to start negotiations with the Taliban. Trump administration has also envisaged a military victory like the previous administrations. There are reports that Trump administration could deploy more troops after a new wave of terrorist attacks in Afghanistan. The close allies of the US are sceptical of the approach of Trump administration towards Afghanistan.

The massive attacks in Afghanistan in the past few days have increased pressure on Islamabad. Both the United States and Afghanistan blamed Pakistan for providing safe havens to the terrorists and like-minded militant groups. Pakistani security agencies are also accused of playing a facilitating role for terrorists inside Afghanistan. Pakistan has severe concerns about growing Indian-Afghanistan nexus. In addition to this, the US has also increased pressure on Pakistan by putting conditions on financial assistance with stricter tone to do more.

Trump administration is committed to put more pressure on Pakistan and increase air strikes on Taliban sanctuaries allegedly backed by Pakistan in the tribal area. In coming days, there a is a possibility that the US may slap military and economic sanctions on Pakistan and is likely to influence other international financial institutions to squeeze and stop financial assistance to Pakistan as in the case of FATF recent developments. Washington has already suspended partial military aid to Islamabad. There are efforts in the US to get declared Pakistan as a terrorist haven. Indeed, this is not going to happen in near future as Pakistan enjoys pretty good diplomatic ties around the world. However, Washington has still maintained diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to clamp down on all form of terrorists and their hideouts inside its tribal areas.

Islamabad is facing a serious challenge to maintain a relationship with Washington since the 9/11. There is serious deliberation in the military and political leadership of Pakistan about the foreign policy options towards the US. Pakistan lost thousands of civilian and arm forces against in the war on terror. Unfortunately, Pakistan is blamed for the US failures in Afghanistan. The fact is that several militant groups are operating from inside of Pakistani areas. The presence of militant groups and their planned attacks on military and civilian places has made Pakistan vulnerable to the US pressure.

There is a dire need for Pakistan to take steps according to her national security interests. Instability and violence in Afghanistan is a threat to the security of Pakistan too. Indeed, it is in the security interest of Pakistan to cooperate with the US and international forces to contain violence and terrorism in the war-torn country.

The writer is an analyst covering foreign policies of great powers, security and strategic studies

Published in Daily Times, April 17^th 2018.