Daily Times

On April 14, 2018, the world watched in shock as the US, France and UK, targeted chemical plants in Syria. This was considered the worst possibility, yet it happened. Few days before BBC compiled a video wherein multiple international security and political analysts spoke about the possibility of a third world war pertaining to the recent developments in Syria. Most of them agreed it is unlikely. But the presence of so many actors and the recent escalation is worrisome to say the least. As one analyst put it: any of the actors involved may take the events towards war, and that this could even happen ‘unintentionally’. So, is there a chance of an all-out conflict or are there any chances that saner heads will prevail?

A few days back Trump jolted the world, international markets in particular. As always, this was done through a Tweet. This time, he threatened Russia, telling it to ‘get ready’ for missile strikes in Syria. However, this recent strike had made his threats grimmer and personality dangerously whimsical. This comes after a chemical attack in Damascus, Syria.

Russia has warned of consequences after the airstrikes and has used very strong language in doing so. ‘Relations between US and Russia are at lowest level since cold war’, this is what Trump himself thinks. In an Op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, published in June, John Bolton said that the ‘probability of a confrontation between Russia and US has risen.’ Such heated rhetorical comments call for concern. In any case, the possibility of a retaliatory strike by Russia will make things ugly.

In an Op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, published in June, John Bolton said that the ‘probability of a confrontation between Russia and US has risen.’ Such heated rhetorical comments call for concern

Even if Russia strikes back, the US can opt for a less violent reaction: sanctions. But given the preponderant element of hawkishness in the administration, this seems a distant thought. Both Russia and US will never want a military engagement. The consequences will be catastrophic. Rest assured, the effects of all of the above events on financial and especially oil markets are already visible. Oil prices are at a three year high. Financial markets are jittery as well.

Time and again, the Trump administration has proven to be inept, dangerous and a cause of concern for the world order. Whether it is about the tariffs on steel, aluminium and other Chinese products that have stoked fear of a trade war, and rightly so; or his brinksmanship with North Korea. He walks a very fine line between confrontation and his own unique brand of edgy-diplomacy. The policeman of the world now has a very aggressive man in charge. A man in want of committing diplomatic gaucheries, providing fodder for Twitter battles and triggering protectionist sentiments. This time, his decision of carrying a strike in Syria, already pillaged and destroyed, seems outlandishly stupid. What is happening right now can have major upshots for the world order.

The Middle-East is a hot-pot of alliances, a place where conditions change at blinding speed. The intricate mesh of “who is fighting whom” is mind-boggling. Different actors fight against each other at one front and are allies at another. This pell-mell mix of actors only exacerbates the matter and makes, almost improbable, for the countries to reach an entente.

Mainly, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), Iran, Syria, the US and Russia are the key stakeholders in the region. Everyone is in it for their own ends. The only difference is that the two greatest powers in the mix, the US and Russia, are in it for their megalomaniac intentions while the others just for regional supremacy. They can, however, still save the world. Also, it is not only the coalition strikes. KSA has also taken down missiles allegedly fired by Houthis in Yemen.

The Iran deal, formally known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is in the news too. The recent replacement of McMaster, National Security Advisor, with John Bolton, a hawk, puts the Iran deal in further jeopardy. In case it goes offline, and Iran starts working on uranium enrichment once again, the hostility between the countries can multiply further. KSA is also planning to build 16 nuclear reactors. The Middle-east is humming with commotion.

Even after the air strikes, Bashar al-Assad’s Twitter account posted a video in which the President can be seen strolling into his office. This was a message of defiance, the post read: “Morning of Steadfastness”. On Saturday morning, there were pro-government rallies as well. This shows that bombing is not a solution to this problem. Rather it can make matters worse. One year ago 59 missiles were fired by U.S against the Assad regime, but it has continued the atrocities.

The solution might lie in serious diplomatic efforts by the countries involved. They should remain realistic, and not expect that every condition they present would be met. There cannot be a win-win situation here, as this would be too idyllic for the country in question. Both sides have to make compromises. But the focus should be on the betterment of the people and to implement the people’s will, nothing else, nothing more (regime change).This will never end. If Russia retaliates, the US will respond with more military action. Other factors (Iran deal, KSA-Yemen conflict) might act as catalyst and the Middle-Eastern cauldron could start boiling. There is an urgent need to diffuse, ease and appease both the sides. Russia has already warned that further strikes will bring global chaos.

Last time we saw the same level of tension (sans any strike) was between North Korea and US This time it is more serious. Let us hope that different economic and policy interests that converge at certain points can bring all parties to the table and/or the cries of those who call for sanity could be heard and stop escalation. It is better to solve problems diplomatically; military confrontation is never a good option. Sanctions in this case are the best. With trade wars at one end and military confrontation at the other we can say that we are going through tough times. We’ve been here before.

The writer is a student of International Relations with interest in International Political Economy. He can be reached at osamarizvi10@hotmail.com

Published in Daily Times, April 17^th 2018.