Daily Times

Campaign season started early this cycle. About a year ago, in fact, when the government was suddenly cornered by the Panama leaks controversy and decided to deflect some of the outrages by putting the spotlight on some of its ‘democratic’ achievements. Now, of course, with the election a little more than a year away, the campaigning is official and in full gear; and the prime minister is seen ‘selling’ his party’s achievements vigorously.

On the surface, there’s much to be impressed by. There’s the historic continuation of democracy to boast. Everybody understood how the army wanted to just stay away from mainstream politics after the heavy Musharraf years, but still, some were surprised when the PPP government completed its term. The first civilian transfer of power was rightly celebrated across the country, but PML-N too had its share of confrontations with institutions. And sometimes, especially at the height of the ’14 dharna, it seemed that history might well repeat itself, and allegedly some of Nawaz’s kitchen cabinet even packed their bags for a mid-night flight.

Yet PML-N has managed to survive so far; within sight of the goalpost. The economy’s much to write home about too if you’ve been reading the headlines, contrary to the PPP days. Ishaq Dar has made Nawaz Sharif proud, apparently. He’s kept the reserves healthier than anybody in recent memory, inflation has been timid the past couple of years, the rupee is strong, and even the stock market is bagging credit rating agencies’ praise. All in all, a pretty good job.

And nobody should even question the government’s sincerity about security. The fight will go on “till the last terrorist is dead” and it will, of course, include “terrorists of all hues and colours”. Plus, there are the two relatively clean years of Zarb-e-Azb to boast, alongside the surgical efficiency of military courts. That’s the mix you’ll hear ad nauseam till the next election. And it’s better than the resume most incumbents have brought to the campaign.

Yet scratch just beneath the surface and the edifice that Nawaz has seemingly built around him doesn’t appear so strong. The defenders of democracy, for example, still comprise those same tried, tested, and many times failed close friends and family of the ruling brothers. The kitchen cabinet, not parliament, is the supreme decision-making body. The House only becomes relevant when the government, or the ruling family itself, comes under personal and political pressure. Most ministries, federal and provincial, are the exclusive domain of the two Sharif brothers. It is not even an open secret anymore that all important bureaucratic promotions are based on personal preferences of loyalty, etc., making the most senior officers in all important cities a collection of sifarshis. The machinery caters, therefore, to the rulers, not the people.

And Dar sb. might be all smiles at the moment, but his policy breakdown often leaves him red-faced and embarrassed. He shored up the reserves and bolstered the rupee by working out a deal to park a billion dollars of Saudi money in state bank vaults. Anybody even vaguely familiar with the Arabs’ ‘riyal politik’ framework will tell you how their quid pro quo always extracts more than the proverbial pound of flesh. And you’d only play politics for economic face-saving when your policy mix is incapable of building the reserves on its own, won’t you?

He also takes the credit for controlling prices but doesn’t quite explain the reason. It wasn’t his genius, after all, that caused a historic international Brent crude oil collapse. That affected Pakistan’s import prices to the tune of eighty percent. Also, he seems to deflect questions now that prices are beginning to rise. The reason, once again, is the international upward movement of oil prices; a phenomenon that countries like Pakistan just cannot influence.

He’ll have more explaining to do in the days to come. With the oil leverage going, the deficit is going into red again. That means more borrowing and more loans. And that also means higher prices. Little surprise that the economy is cracking just because the Americans have refused to pay the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). Since the CSF is basically a reimbursement for war on terror expenses, this bottleneck could even impact the new military operation. When the finance minister boasts about turning around the economy, he fails to warn the people that in effect, the economy is structurally near collapse. The government is functioning only because it is borrowing every day. And someone, someday, will have to pay for all this.

Then there is the security situation. The Peshawar massacre got everybody on the same page with the National Action Plan. Everybody believed that the old days when militants and terrorists could roam the land and kill at will would now come to an end. Yet everybody noticed how the civilian government dragged its feet on some of the most important points. When everybody, including the Army, protested, the government fell back to the ‘sanctity of government jurisdiction’ argument, but still never delivered. There were no madrassa reforms. There were no police reforms. There was no national narrative. There is still not intel-sharing between dozens of security agencies. And now the enemy is on the rampage again. Little surprise that two years after Peshawar, we have another military operation and we’re still arguing about military courts.

So, as Nawaz campaigns all the way to the election, he’ll increasingly face questions about a non-functioning democracy, a fragile economy and a vulnerable security situation. The fortress he’s built around him, full of his courtiers, could well prove a house of cards as people go to the polls next year.

The writer is the Resident Editor, Daily Times Lahore, tweets @yourafiq and can be reached at yourafiq@gmail.com