Good news is on the cards for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. They are all set to become fully paid up members of Pakistan’s fifth province. This comes some seven years after they went to the polls to vote on a government-led autonomy package that saw the election of their first assembly.
Back then the federal government had stopped short of according GB provincial status, fearing that such a move would undermine its claim to the entire Kashmir region. So the natural question is what is behind this change of heart? Or, to be more precise, who?
The Chinese Economic Corridor (CPEC) holds the key. Crucial parts of the $46 million dollar investment project will pass through GB. Thus the price is now right for Pakistan to come on down and jump on the neo-colonial economic gravy train.
On paper, this looks like a smart move. China is both a regional player and a strong supporter of Pakistan. But like any country, it acts in its national interests. And one of the most significant features of the Beijing Doctrine has been the delinking of human rights from its investment packages. This is in sharp contrast to US policy. Nations like Pakistan have been quick to embrace the Chinese dragon, given that they are cognisant of Washington’s penchant for playing the human rights card to secure unfair leverage.
Yet very often when something appears too good to be true, caution is advised. CPEC is not about Pakistan. It is about consolidating Chinese power in Central Asia. Pakistan has been courted due to the accident of its geo-strategic birth. And yet Pakistan is right to hop aboard. A new balance of power that can pack more than a few punches is needed in a region where the US is intent on aggressive posturing against Moscow in the battle for resources. Central Asia is believed to be home to impressive gold and oil reserves. Indeed, Russia along with Iran and Turkmenistan are already set to make use of the Gwadar Port trade route. Pakistan is right to take its place at the table. Yet it must remain mindful of two pressing issues. Firstly, it cannot simply brush Indian concerns under the carpet. This is a policy that has failed both sides over the last 70 years and explains the symbolic offer made by a Pakistani general who suggested India ponder joining CPEC. Secondly, Islamabad cannot ignore the concerns of its own populations that will be hardest hit by the development projects. Resentment is already there in Balochistan. The government must counter this by ensuring that the CPEC cake is to be divided equally among all parties. Fat cats would do well not to become any fatter. *
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