Daily Times

In order to wriggle Pakistan out of energy crisis, the stakeholders should start focusing on mainstreaming renewable energy.

To meet rising energy demand and need, that are safer, secure, sustainable and affordable, Pakistan desperately needs to shift from conventional energy system to integrated and intelligent renewable energy system.

Pakistan is already lagging behind in the race, it is never too late. The country still has many reasons to be optimistic and initiate the reconstruction of its energy infrastructure.

Surprisingly, Pakistan has fantastic renewable energy prospects with a total renewable energy potential of about 167.7 GW, which is more than enough to meet the total electricity demand of the country.

Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) is set to achieve a share of 5 percent from renewable technologies in the energy mix of the country till 2030.

The Annual Report 2017-2018 of the Planning Commission (PC) revealed that 6 percent of the total power generation was shifted from oil, gas and hydroelectric towards wind, solar, nuclear and coal in 2017.It is fortunate that share of wind power in energy mix ratio has registered an increase from 0.46 percentage point to 1.23 percent so far which gives a sense that country is on right track.

During Phase-II of the Renewable energy Mapping Project ground based wind data is being collected by AEDB. For this purpose initially 12 sites across the country have been identified for installation of 80 meter high wind masts. USAID in collaboration with Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and AEDB developed solar and wind atlases of Pakistan. Most of wind projects are located in Gharo-Keti Bandur Wind Corridor within an area of roughly 60 Km x 170 Km. Pakistan Meteorological Department has also conducted a detailed Wind Power Potential Survey of Coastal Areas of Pakistan with financial assistance of Ministry of Science and Technology.

One interesting aspect of this study is that contrary to the general impression, Sindh coastal areas have greater wind power potential than Balochistan coastal areas. Potential areas cover 9700sqkm in Sindh. The gross wind power potential of this area is 43000 MW and keeping in view the area utilization constrains the exploitable electric power generation potential of this area is measured to be about 11000MW. Gharo, one of the sites in Sindh where the wind data have been recorded and studied by PMD, has been selected for this feasibility study.

Surprisingly, Pakistan has fantastic renewable energy prospects with a total renewable energy potential of about 167.7 GW, which is more than enough to meet the total electricity demand of the country

The wind measurements at Gharo have been carried out during 24 months period. The annual mean wind speed is estimated to be 6.86m/s at 50 meter above ground level. The annual power density of area is 408.6 W/m2, which bring the site into good category of power potential, which means this area is suitable for large economically viable wind farm.

Taking into account the wind turbine availability, net losses and wake effects in the wind farm the net annual energy production is estimated to 31 million kwh per year corresponding to a capacity factor of 28 percent.

Solar energy also has vast potential to impact energy system. According to studies, Pakistan has thousands of megawatts of solar energy potential besides photovoltaic opportunities.

Viewing its large potential, efforts have been stepped up to generate a total of 556.52 MW electricity by the end of 2018. Approximately 17 solar energy development projects are underway. Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) had already okayed the upfront tariff and adjustments/indexations for solar power generation. Definitely, electricity generation through solar power project is costly in the beginning but gradually it goes down making it financially viable solution. Easy operation and maintenance cost of solar power project was an additional benefit.

Globally, solar energy is being produced in bulk due to its low cost and lesser environmental hazards. Studies have revealed that Pakistan is beneficiary of one of the best solar irradiation in the world and has a natural potential to generate over 2.324 million megawatts electricity per annum through solar thermal and photovoltaic systems but this potential is yet to be tapped.

Currently, alarming energy scenario has beset every part of country. Many of its parts are yet not connected to the grid. Electricity demand is rising up at a rate of 10 percent annually while the power generation capacity is growing only by 7 percent. This manifests that by 2030, the power requirement will be higher than 45,000 MW.

Due to this energy shortfall in urban and rural areas, power outage is a normal routine despite government rhetoric that load shedding is almost over. The major causes of energy crisis are dependence of energy sector on imported fossil fuels, mismanagement, irregularities, and inappropriate government policies.

Let me tell you that major sources of energy available in Pakistan are oil, natural gas, hydro and nuclear Power. At present oil accounts for approximately 45 percent of total commercial energy supply. The share of natural gas stands at 34 percent while that of hydel power fluctuates roughly at 15 percent. The hike in cost of fossil fuel and the various environmental problems of large scale power generation have ramped up the potential of electricity generation from non-conventional sources. And no doubt Wind and Solar energies are most clean and low cost renewable resources available in the country.

Each megawatt-hour of electricity that is generated by wind and solar energy helps to reduce 0.8 to 0.9 tons of greenhouse gas emissions that are produced by coal or diesel fuel generation each year.

It is appreciative that energy ministry is giving serious thought to set up a renewable energy institute with the core purpose to do research, conduct study to know existing potential and lay down policy suggestions to make things happen.

The writer is a senior journalist writing on economy, environment, international relations, human rights, governance and politics. He is a fellow of the International Centre for Journalists (ICFJ) and is a recipient of China-friendly Netizen 2017 award. He can be reached at yaseerkhan@hotmail.com; Twitter @yasirkhann

Published in Daily Times, April 1^st 2018.