Daily Times

Every day, the White House turns astonishment into understatement. And the next move by President Donald Trump often defies any possible rational explanation. Last week proved this point, although no one should be surprised by what next week may bring.

President Trump declared a trade war on America’s trading partners; bureaucratic war on his most senior aides; political war on Special Counsel Robert Mueller; a phony war against his predecessors for not having the ‘smarts’ or ‘chemistry’ to deal with North Korea; and a war of words and legal threats against a pornstar, a former Playboy Bunny and a fired Celebrity Apprentice. Perhaps the POTUS would have been better off if he had read a little history about how two front wars usually spelled disaster. Now he is engaged in twice that number.

The announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminium, denounced by every single reputable historian and economist as unworkable and since ratcheted back, and $60 billion against China has caused stock markets to tumble if not crash yet.

Trump has rid himself of a secretary of state; national security adviser; economic adviser; and lead attorney in the Russian investigation. In their stead, he has appointed a former member of the House of Representatives and current CIA director; a Fox cable news commentator; an MSNBC talking head; and a lawyer who believes the FBI and Justice Departments ‘framed’ the President.

Robert Mueller’s days may be numbered, as spineless Republicans in Congress refuse to stand up for the Special Counsel.

The three fair ladies are not just launching legal suits, but full-fledged media blitzes detailing Trump’s extra-marital affairs, which probably don’t sit well with the first lady. It is hard to imagine what will happen next.

Aside from this spectacle, which cannot be encouraging to most Americans about the performance of their Chief Executive, Trump has also damaged American standing abroad as the so-called leader of the free world. Is there a plan or strategy behind Trump’s highly idiosyncratic actions? If there is, what might that be?

Perhaps the POTUS would have been better off if he had read a little history about how two front wars usually spelled disaster. Now he is engaged in twice that number

People rarely shed decades of past behaviour and experience even after being elected to the Oval Office. The President’s experience came from the tough real estate business, where bluffs, threats and bravado were acceptable if not desirable tools, at least for Trump. When Trump was in trouble over his purchase of the Plaza Hotel in New York, for example, he sued his way clear of danger. One of many such ploys. This could be his tactic with China (and the three ladies).

By threatening $60 billion in penalties, the president could be expecting China to negotiate a better deal. This would be in keeping with the President’s self-described brilliance as a deal maker. The problem is, suppose China is not like Trump’s loan holders for the Plaza Hotel, and decides to fight fire with fire or tariff with tariff? What happens next?

His choice of Mike Pompeo for Secretary of State and John Bolton as HR McMaster’s replacement as NSA will be seen as direct threats by Iran and North Korea. Pompeo has been aggressive towards both and withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons. Bolton has raised the ante by proposing decapitating strikes against Iran and North Korea, as well as regime change in Tehran. Will these threats cause either Iran or North Korea to comply with White House demands?

Indeed, Trump’s infatuation with Saudi Arabia not only accounts for more than $12 billion of arms sales that are important to American defence firms. The idea of a quasi or de facto alliance with Riyadh and the UAE against Iran, which will also help Israel is not far-fetched. Still, none of these possibilities have been made public by the White House.

Some bets then: first, the JCPOA is on life support and is unlikely to survive. Next, more pressure will be placed on North Korea based on the American military build-up that has taken place in South Korea over the past year to coerce Kim Jung Un to denuclearise. If diplomacy fails, do not discount some form of military action.

Last, Donald Trump may think that he no longer needs a Chief of Staff, something Jimmy Carter attempted and quickly learned his lesson. Whether the current office holder will follow in the footsteps of two other generals — former National Security Advisor Mike Flynn and HR McMaster is unclear. But the President could turn the White House into a Trump Company like organisation.

The writer is UPI’s Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist; Senior Advisor at Washington DC’s Atlantic Council, chairman of two private companies and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His latest book is Anatomy of Failure: Why America Loses Wars It Starts. The writer can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman

Published in Daily Times, March 28^th 2018.