Daily Times

More than 10,000 people have been killed as the war in Yemen enters in its fourth year. The country is on the edge of being plunged into famine as it has already been the poorest country in the Arab world, with limited arable land and water resources.

Though the country has oil as one of its resource assets, it could never contribute to its wealth and prosperity. The ongoing conflict and the blockade imposed by the Saudi-led coalition have already worsened the conditions.

According to a UN report, more than 22.2 million Yemenis need humanitarian assistance to survive. Out of these 22.2 million people, 18 million — which constitutes 60 percent of the country’s total population — need food and do not have access to clean drinking water and sanitation.

In addition to this, demolition of the basic infrastructure has resulted in the worst cholera outbreak of our times. These facts clearly illustrate magnitude of humanitarian crisis Yemen is going through.

These facts clearly illustrate magnitude of humanitarian crisis Yemen is going through.

Meanwhile, due to the destruction and weakening of state institutions and writ, Yemen is also witnessing increasing influence of ISIS, Al-Qaeda and other separatist movements.

The ongoing conflict in Yemen has offered terrorist groups — namely Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS — a lawless territory to exploit and opportunities to recruit masses from Yemen.

AQAP still maintains a presence in the central and northern cities of Ataq, Shabwah, al Bayda and Hadramat, with its leadership based in the urban areas of Ma’arib. Islamic State also enjoys strong network and sleeper cells in the country.

Yemen has also suffered from regionalism. After its annexation with the north in 1990, the southern part of the country has never been satisfied with the centre.  The union resulted in a short civil war in 1994.

The present conflict has allowed groups like Southern Transition Council (STC) to galvanise separatist sentiments.

STC not only declared its opposition to the President Hadi, but also advocates for the re-division of Yemen into two separate states, north and south. It’s being suspected that the transition council is getting support from UAE.

Engulfed in multiple foundational and existential problems, Yemen is undergoing its worst phase. But it is very important to know that the Yemen’s possible collapse wouldn’t be a tragedy for only itself; the resulting migration of millions of people would alter the dynamics of the region forever.

This conflict, like all other previous conflicts in the region, would become a global problem.

Yemen’s collapsing state will also have negative implications for international maritime trade, as the conflict is taking place near a major trading artery for the global economy, the Suez Canal-Red Sea shipping lane, and for regional security for countries on both sides of the Red Sea, including Saudi Arabia and the Gulf of Aden.

The ongoing conflict in Yemen has offered terrorist groups — namely Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS — a lawless territory to exploit and opportunities to recruit masses from Yemen

Yemen’s problems are not confined to its borders, a regional approach should be employed to resolve the Yemeni crisis. First of all, immediate ceasefire ending all foreign military attacks is very much required. After the ceasefire is in place and being observed by every party to the conflict humanitarian assistance can be started for the needy people. Later on, broad national dialogue can be conveyed through this dialogue, the establishment of an inclusive unity government can be achieved.

The Sultanate of Oman, which has refused to take sides in the conflict, could act as a broker, much like it did in the run-up to the Iran nuclear talks can convey this type of national dialogue. The aim of such talks could be to establish a federal state, as first proposed during the National Dialogue of 2013-2014.

A successful deal would balance the grievances and worries of the Northern Zaydi tribes and of the Southern and Eastern tribes. This deal should put forth a system of obligatory power sharing, as domination of the federal government by one tribal alliance would quickly lead to a new conflict, as history has proven. With the strengthening of the state and its institutions much attention can be given on elimination of Al-Qaeda and ISIS. It should be understood that peaceful and stable Yemen is not only in interest of Yemenis but also in interest of neighbouring countries and region at large.

The writer is a columnist for Middle-East and Af-Pak region and Editor of geo-political news agency Views Around can be reached at manishraiva@gmail.com

Published in Daily Times, March 28^th 2018.