Daily Times

Donald Trump has been at it again. Taking to Twitter to announce yet another major White House shake-up. If he is not careful, questions may soon be asked as to whether the unquiet American president has secretly bought shares in the social networking site. This latest move has seen the return of a neo-con extraordinaire to the fold.

John Bolton is the new US National Security Adviser; the third one that this administration has seen in the last 14 months. And his appointment is likely to spell bad news for North Korea and Iran; meaning one nation that is willing to surrender its nuclear weapons programme and one that insists it is not pursuing the bomb. Bolton famously is not averse to the idea of military aggression to settle both issues.

Yet while the prospect of his comeback throws into question long-term multilateral stability — it is not necessarily bad news as far as Pakistan is concerned. After all, where this country differs from Pyongyang and Tehran is that it is a declared nuclear power with no intention of pulling the plug on its Big Boy WMDs. And if past records are anything to go by, this may be just about enough to have the veteran career hawk show, if not his dovish side, at least a softer one. For when it comes to Pakistan, it seems that nukes are always on Bolton’s mind.

Thus what may just be on the cards in the coming months is a return to the gilded years of the Bush-Musharraf era; whereby the latter sold the line that he could only be pushed so far when it came to doing American bidding. For to go any further would swell already rising anti-US sentiment, thereby risking empowering extremist elements that would like nothing more than to get their hands on the world’s only Muslim bomb.

This was a sentiment echoed by Bolton himself in the wake of Trump Town’s new and improved South Asia policy last August. Though with the added prescription that combines treading carefully on the Pakistani front with outsourcing the heavy lifting to China. Indeed, it is a vison that calls for holding the latter to account for the “misdeeds” that helped create “the current strategic danger”. In other words, for reportedly helping this country to cross the nuclear threshold.

All of which means that Pakistan has to be smarter this time around. It will no longer suffice to signal that it cannot be pushed beyond a certain point to secure the US exit from the Afghan quagmire. It needs to get some reassurances on the table. A good place to start would be identifying as a redline any still existent US plans to swoop in and secure nuclear warheads if the worst were to happen. For it must be communicated that any unilateral action outside the IAEA framework is unacceptable to Islamabad; with incredibly dangerous repercussions for the entire region.

Then there is the question of financial assistance. President Trump might not be as rigid as he was back in January; not with Bolton back on the block. The latter has, after all, made it clear that cutting the purse strings may also ultimately strengthen the extremist hand. This is not to mention the un-small matter of how Washington defines steps to bring China to book. For the last thing the region needs is overt confrontation between the two. That being said it is to be welcomed that Bolton recognises that too much American pressure could not only destabilise Pakistan but also precipitate Indian interference.

The jury is out, for now. But there is hope that, for Pakistan at least, the new NSA could surprisingly turn out to be the voice of measured reason that reins in President Trump. Fingers crossed.  *

Published in Daily Times, March 24^th 2018.