Daily Times

Nawaz Sharif’s ‘respect the vote’ campaign reminds me of a campaign led by ZA Bhutto, following his release almost a month after the coup led by General Zia in July 1977.He took the north-south train route for mass mobilization in favour of his narrative that the country belongs to the people, hence democracy is the only way Pakistan should be governed. His message was powerful indeed, and so were the gatherings.As Bhutto regained confidence, he got emboldened, and in Murree’s rally in August 1977, he warned Zia will be tried for high treason for the crime of overthrowing a rightful democratic government.

The military regime — which was already jittery because of Bhutto’s resilient popularity — was completely shaken by the prospect of Zia being tried under Article 6.Hence, criminal cases were prepared against Bhutto, which ranged from corruption to murder; toady judges in high courts and supreme courts were brought in replacing the ilk of Justice KMA Samdani, to execute Bhutto through a sham judicial trial.

Many admirers of Bhutto find it offensive today to compare Nawaz Sharif’s campaign for civilian supremacy with what Bhutto stood for between 1977 and 1979. However, the dispassionate truth is that in the preceding years Bhutto showed little respect for his political adversaries and used religion, the military and other security agencies for his own political aggrandizement. Nevertheless, his ouster from premiership in 1977 and execution in 1979 were the murder of both the law and a popular leader.

Looking at the mess we are in today, the political calculation of the establishment against an assertive and popular political leader in Nawaz Sharif too was to dislodge and discredit him under the garb of a flimsy charge of assets beyond known sources. Much like an unfortunate tradition, some in the judiciary offered themselves as the establishment’s eager accomplices. The dilemma, however, for the deep state is that while it has successfully managed to dislodge Nawaz from premiership and from formally leading his party, his popularity has only increased in his traditional constituency and beyond, which has also discouraged immediate defections from his party ranks so far.

But this looming challenge, in the form of Nawaz’s persistent popularity and unity in party ranks, too will have to be dealt with. After all, as we know from the grapevine, the whole scheme wasn’t hatched only to see PML-N getting back to power for another consecutive term. It just doesn’t fit in with the scheme of things as designed by our deep state, which is to scuttle the chances of civilian supremacy.

In a more plausible scenario, following the elections, we will see a hung parliament and a coalition government led by PTI and PPP, minus Zardari. This coalition government will virtually be a puppet government, one like we saw in 1985 or in 2002 with the strings being controlled from elsewhere

So what lies ahead most likely is a jail-term sentence for Nawaz and his politically talented daughter Maryam Nawaz, in any of the ongoing NAB cases. Certainly, it won’t be entirely surprising then to see defections soon after Nawaz is sentenced, which may also coincide with virtually strangulating PML-N from running an election campaign through administrative tricks and security threats. Seemingly, the deal is that both the PPP and PTI will be facilitated to demonstrate performance in elections at the expense of the PML-N.

In a more plausible scenario, following the elections, we will see a hung parliament and a coalition government led by PTI and PPP, minus Zardari. This coalition government will virtually be a puppet government, one like we saw in 1985 or in 2002 with the strings being controlled from elsewhere. In such a scenario, what is obvious is that prospects of civilian supremacy will only dwindle, federating units will lose autonomy, there will hardly be any peace with neighbours since militaristic calculation of zero-sum strategies won’t allow any win-win diplomatic possibilities for Pakistan and its estranged neighbours.

In a rather abhorrent scenario, the elections will be postponed on some pretext for a couple of years. Along with this, the constitution will be suspended and a hybrid form of interim set up will be in place in which both the military and judiciary will have equal stakes. This regime will undertake the ‘purge’ at two levels. One, decimating political parties such as the PML-N under the garb of anti-corruption; two, reversal of constitutional changes and developments that we have seen in the last eight years — the biggest casualty will be the autonomy that the provinces enjoy as a result of 18th amendment to the constitution.

A few years later, joint opposition parties will have to launch a successful movement for restoration of democracy again, bringing us back to zero. Meanwhile, the masses will continue to endure agonizing poverty, morbidity, ignorance and rising religious fanaticism. Isn’t this the same political cycle we have been trapped in for the past 60 years? Welcome to the past but lest we forget, all this has cost us half of our country.

The writer is a sociologist with interest in history and politics of Pakistan. He’s accessible at Zulfirao@yahoo.com

Published in Daily Times, March 22^nd 2018.