Daily Times

General elections are on the threshold. All that we see is going to add to the moods of the voters.  Khan Sahib is coming with more and more vigour to address directly to voters. The other sides, too, are busy in the same exercise. Talk shows and media are adding in also in creating a hype for the elections. From Supreme Court to NAB Court and now ECP, all are making main headlines. Mian sahib is more in a mood to create a narrative of defiance. This narrative is also supporting him to keep warming up his voters. Recently held Senate elections on March 03, and that followed by the elections for the Chairman and Deputy Chairman respectively were also adding the debate for upcoming general elections that most likely around in this year.   Arguably, It could be said that all that we see build-up of momentum indirectly for election campaign for the coming general elections.

General Elections 2018 are unique in many respects. These are held first time being third continuous ballot box in the history of Pakistan. Some unprecedented phenomenon such as delimitations of the constituencies is being made almost after two decades. Karachi and the urban Sindh’s voters after 30 years unchallenged rule of MQM have to redecide whom to render its mandate as well as to rewrite its narrative for the general elections. A few seats of Punjab have decreased and in the result, it made KPK and Baluchistan its beneficiaries. It is also a fact, predominantly these elections largely will be contested by building elections narrative than relying on electable.

There are, however, questions on the very fundamentals of the narrative. Khan Sahib has contained himself on corruption as his primary point and for that, he built his narrative on change. Whereas, Mian Sahib is saying his election narrative is primarily on the point that mandate of the people be respected. Asif Zardari, who until recently was conventionally believed as leader of liberal and secular voters as that was what he inherited from the previous two Bhutto leaders as both defied against dictator Zia and his religious extremist stance. This impetus of his narrative has declined as the conservatism has largely expanded. The turf of Punjab is very difficult for Mr Zardari and his party to make inroads again. Punjab has also been influenced by the narrative of Khan Sahib and Mian Sahib both, labelling Zardari as the most corrupt politician. However, Khan Sahib’s narrative of corruption against Sharif brothers hasn’t influenced well as laters jalsas are equally going well and Mariam Nawaz is also good discovery to create counter narrative.

Zardari, seeing general trend of the politics, has tilted more towards the politics on electable coated with narrative. The leader next in line, Bilawal Bhutto is not so impressive in this context if he is compared with Mariam Nawaz, despite the fact that he has been actively in politics from reasonably long-time vis a vis Mariam Nawaz. Zardari’s recent role in the Senate election has further verified to this fact he wants to overcome the deficit by classical Muslim League tactics. In Sindh Bhutto phenomenon, which has ruled for 50 years almost, will not help him in coming elections form the constituencies that are historically comprised on PPP supporters. Zardari from these constituencies, however will win, the reason this time is relatively different and new. Zardari has a virtual monopoly on transfers and postings of bureaucrats. It is all electable centric in rural Sindh and Zardari has also made it stronger. He has maneuvered in the dynamics of electable by showing them that power vest with him and he can give them local officers of their choice who could strengthen their position. There is no replacement of PPP and the society hasn’t transformed at the same pace as it has in central Punjab. At least these elections PPP could make its way in the Parliament as the largest Party from Sindh.

There are two main leaders who have the most effect on the political narrative: Mian Sahib and Khan Sahib. Mian Sahib presently has an edge over Khan Sahib, given his recently getting disqualified and using the same as a tool, by showing that this is always the fate of all prime ministers

Recent Senate elections have boosted Zardari’s moral given to his surprising success in the Senate. Point is, will he be able to sustain it? Zardari in coming days will not be able to make big jalsas public processions in Punjab, which shall be the epicentre of the narrative centric-campaign for the elections. He may not be able to have such big jalsas-show of public in Sindh even as historically the party was famous for. The battle predominantly on media will appear as between Khan Sahib and Mian Sahib. It will severely bring negative impact on PPP and their leaders.

On the other hand, Mian Sahib and his popularity is contained till the limits of central Punjab, he may make some inroads in South Punjab. His position in Hazara Division of KPK may also improve but not beyond that. In Pashtun voters of KPK he and Zardari both possess equal weight. It will be too early to say at this stage whether Mian Sahib will give surprise to Khan Sahib in KPK. However, given to historical trend of the elections it is less likely to happen.

Baluchistan may matter weighty in Senate elections but in general elections for the National Assembly it is quite the opposite. It has 16 seats in the House of 272 general seats or 6 percent. This is most electable centric turf for that matter FATA. There are around 225 general seats of the House that will have to get effect of narrative directly and indirectly.

There are two main leaders who affect the most to the narrative. Mian Sahib and Khan Sahib. Mian Sahib presently has an edge over Khan Sahib, given to his recently getting disqualified and using the same as a tool by showing that this is always a fate of all prime ministers. Narrative of corruption hasn’t seriously dented to Mian Sahib whereas narrative of scandals against Khan Sahib has worked a little. Khan Sahib in 2013 was looking replacement of MQM in Karachi, now it is completely different scene here in Karachi for him. Karachi is purely a ground of narrative based votes. It is in vacuum and not yet shaped up itself that to which narrative the voters of this city shall follow. PPP is trying to fill this vacuum. In this struggle they may take a few seats in the constituencies which have Baloch and Sindhi votes.

One thing quite clearly can be seen over the horizon of Pakistan that there is transformation with reasonable pace that is taking its course. This is not classical Pakistan with classical characters on political arena. Khan Sahib entered on this single fact and made its place but he couldn’t make more as he himself has become victim of the compromises that he made given to realities on ground. Politics is changing a lot in the coming days. 2018’s general election may show its early glimpses that shall be scene in a much bloom manner in the 2023’s elections.

The writer is a civil society activist. At present, he is practicing as a lawyer at Sindh High Court in Karachi

Published in Daily Times, March 19^th 2018.