Daily Times

Perhaps the incumbents have all the reasons to be upset. What they had imagined and taken for granted, things did not pan out as planned. Well, we are referring to the balloting of the Senate Chairman and the Deputy Chairman. There was betrayal by the party members and allies and while the lines are being written, the internal investigations are still ongoing.

While the Nooners are hopping mad and pointing their fingers towards the usual suspects, for all the maneuvers, they cannot just sign off so easily, without accepting some of the blame for their lethargic attitude.

The former premier and his daughter are on a rampage. Their barbs fly left and right quite ruthlessly towards their political opponents and the apex court. The latter has been extremely critical of his political opponents, especially in this round; PPP and PTI joined hands to bring a rather an unknown chairman of the Senate.

Good sound bites on his part, however he has failed to grapple one simple fact: these are not his real opponents. The party of invisibles is. These are merely actors working on their behalf. To put it very bluntly, it is Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) versus the Establishment. Like it or not, but this is the open secret.

This is Sharif’s ‘do or die’ moment. If he still doesn’t get the gravity of where he stands, then he will soon collide with a giant iceberg. Considering his history, he likes to fight till the very end. One sincerely hopes that he knows the rules of this ruthless game. Unfortunately, there are none

The cobbling of independents, bringing rivals together, penetrating allies are, all just signals. The writing is so clear that PML-N is no longer needed and it should get the hint. Unfortunately, the former PM refuses to accept this clear and visible handwriting on the wall. Or he sees it, but wants to put up a fierce fight. What seems to be his final bout, for the sake of his political legacy.

There is no Agatha Christie style murder mystery here. Ever since the 2014 sit-ins in Islamabad, the Establishment wanted him out. The entire term has been marred with one issue or another. Perhaps the disagreements over the affairs and the encroachments in certain areas by our dear Establishment, has been the most burning and pressing issue. The Panama scandal was a God send, and needless to say from there things started to spiral downhill very rapidly for him. At his dismissal from the office, this scribe wrote a piece rejoicing the decision. Not that justice was served, but the poor PM, made multiple political blunders along the way and those were so blatant, that his ouster was perhaps the jolt that he badly needed.

To his credit, his campaign after his ouster resonated well with his vote bank. His daughter has been the lifeline that his party perhaps needed. Both father and daughter are complimenting each other while delivering their message of victimhood. The pitch is all impressive, especially when the fiery, young and energetic daughter delivers.

With limitations such as not to directly name the establishment, father-daughter duo are criticizing the judiciary for their biased positions. The entire pitch is about a conspiracy to oust him. That seems to be the theme. However, without some facts demonstrating the trail or pieces of conspiracy, the time may soon be up for both. What both of them are perhaps overlooking is, there will be a caretaker set up soon. From whatever buzz one can extract from other analysts and the usual rumor mongering on the social media, that period may be quite challenging for both. Not only challenging for them, but the newly elected President of their party, Mr Shahbaz Sharif as well.

As they always say, you have to plan from the position of being in the worst possible predicament. One can sincerely hope and wish, that this time around Mr. Nawaz Sharif has done some serious strategy sessions of how to out maneuver his real opponent.

The sheer hope that they will be able to carry a resounding majority at upcoming polls sounds quite rosy and unrealistic. The reason is very plain and simple.

If the almighty establishment wanted all of this to happen then why such a complicated set of circumstances was created? The penetration in their party for the voting of Senate chairmanship is another signal, what may unfold a bit later. If both father and daughter are sentenced in the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) references, and the younger brother is embroiled in a similar reference or another scoop, the scenario is going to be quite damning. The second tier leadership cannot just go to the polls with their cries of victimhood. If some electables jump ship or defect, the chances of that resounding victory are quite slim.

With his poor performance at the handling of Panama scandal, one sincerely hopes that Mr. Sharif has a plan this time around.

This is his ‘do or die’ session. If he still does not get the gravity of where he stands then he is about to hit a giant iceberg. Considering his history, he likes to fight till the very end. One sincerely hopes that he knows the rules of this ruthless game. Unfortunately, there are none.

The writer is a Pakistani-US mortgage banker. He can be reached at dasghar@aol.com. TW @dasghar

Published in Daily Times, March 18^th 2018.