Daily Times

The North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jong Un, has been called by many names: madman, egotist, tyrant, impetuous, short and fat, to name a few. He has also been accused of deliberately setting North Korea on a dangerous course, which has the potential to trigger a nuclear war. In spite of international pressure and the UN sanctions, he did not give up on the nuclear programme and, today, North Korea possesses the hydrogen bomb and the nuclear tippled intercontinental missiles which have the capability to strike many parts of the United States.

Soon after he became president, Donald Trump warned North Korea of a lethal attack on its nuclear arsenals if it kept act obstinately in its efforts to acquire nukes.

This, Trump thought, was the only way he could force Kim to mend his ways. The threat had absolutely no effect on Kim and he continued to test state of art missile technology. Even the United Nation’s imposition of economic sanctions had little effect on him.

Trump was pushed to a corner, finding himself unable to handle a recalcitrant Kim. Trump even approached China to intercede on its behalf and persuade the North Korean leader to give up on his nuclear programme. Sadly, China made only a feeble attempt to persuade Kim to stop further testing of missiles. One reason why China did not make all-out effort to leverage its influence over Kim, was its own unhappiness over the US decision to deploy THAAD missiles in South Korea. China perceived that this could have serious security implications in the Korean peninsula.  China, in fact, put an embargo on imports from South Korea, forcing it to consider dismantling of THAAD missiles from its soil.

Kim Jong-Un has been using the nuclear threat to legitimise his leadership in his country. His strategy was based on the flawed premise that if United States dared to attack his country, it would be met an equal response. Kim boasted that his nuclear tipped missiles had the capability to strike many parts of the United States. He even matched Trump’s rhetoric, word by word, and also warned him against any pre-emptive strike. Kim’s confidence stemmed from the misplaced assessment of North Korea’s capability.

If one were to study the persona of Kim, he is definitely not a madman, but a shrewd and cunning leader who understands the nuances of diplomacy. Once, he had amassed an adequate stockpile, he reached out to South Korea, by sending his sister to the winter Olympics, which was recently held in South Korea. What came as a surprise was North Korea’s decision to allow their athletes to participate under a unified flag of Korea. Kim’s sister invited the South Korean officials to North Korea as a gesture of goodwill. At the recent meeting with the South Korean officials, Kim indicated that he was willing to talk to the United States without any preconditions subject to the US guarantee of the safety of his regime. He also told the officials that his offer of denuclearisation was as per the dying wish of his father. He also invited South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in to Pyongyang for talks. If such a meeting takes place, it would be a huge personal victory for Moon for his continued efforts of engaging with his neighbour.

Kim’s sudden change of heart comes from the fact that he knows he can’t continue with his belligerent approach as the impact of the UN sanctions coupled with an embargo on trade by China have severely affected the economy

North Korea has so far neither denied nor confirmed the statement made by the South Korean officials on its willingness to hold talks with the United States to stop further testing of weapons. The sudden change of heart could be the effect of the UN sanctions on their economy and rising discontent of its people in Kim’s leadership. In a volte face, Trump has agreed to meet Kim for talks. In the past, North Korea had reneged on commitments given by it. However, his willingness to talk to the US may pave the way for peace and stability in the region.

The sudden change of heart of Kim Jong Un comes from the fact he knows that he can’t continue with his belligerent approach as the impact of the UN sanctions coupled with an embargo on trade by China have severely affected the economy. Many of the people in North Korea are facing impoverishment as a result of economic sanctions. Kim is also aware that his country’s overarching dependence on China would not be a wise strategy, especially when China had recently supported the UN sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear programme. It is for this reason he is expecting South Korea to bail him out from the present impasse by acting as a mediator between him and Trump.

The United States should realise that it will be dealing with a clever and cunning leader, but nevertheless it should keep an open mind, as any refusal to talk would only lead to further deprivation of the people of North Korea. There is also a realisation in the Trump administration that continued grandstanding will not force North Korea to give up on their nuclear programme. One is sceptical about Trump’s ability to handle Kim Jong Un, as it would be foolish to expect Kim to completely abandon the nuclear programme. It would be advisable for Trump to do groundwork before engaging with Kim. He should send his top officials for preliminary discussions, and only when there is hope of persuading Kim to put a freeze on his nuclear programme, he should hold a meeting with Kim. This will save him from any embarrassment if his meeting with Kim fails.

The writer is an independent columnist and political commentator

Published in Daily Times, March 16^th 2018.