Daily Times

Conflicting trends and deeply rooted threat perception play a key role in shaping the security and political matrix of the Middle East. These trends have let regional powers pursue defence modernisation. Whereas, amongst all elements, missile proliferation in the region is more evident because of two factors; first, perusal of confrontational asymmetric strategies against great powers and second, cost effective advantage of ballistic missile for maintaining conventional forces. In the aftermath of the Suez Crisis, Israel was the first country that launched indigenous missile program in the Middle East. The threat perception by regional states due to Israel’s military build-up was a key motivation for developing missile capabilities. These diverse factors have initiated an offensive-defensive military race amongst key countries in the region.

Recently, Iran has become the focal point in global politics due to its latest military exercises and ballistic missile test series. According to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, it was the 14^th ballistic missile test conducted by Iran after inking the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with P5 plus One. Under JCPOA, Iran is committed to limit purchases and sales of conventional arms for five years and embargo on ballistic missiles for eight years. It also includes a clause about putting a ban on manufacturing and conducting nuclear tests. It further includes that sanctions will be re-imposed in case of violations. Though Iran’s nuclear deal has eliminated the impasse between Washington and Tehran, recent tests have certainly escalated tensions.

The US has strongly condemned these tests. President Donald Trump stated, ‘Iran is playing with fire – they don’t appreciate how ‘kind’ President Obama was to them. Not me.’ In response, the Trump administration has imposed additional sanctions on Iranian and Chinese companies that are associated with the ballistic missile program. Iran responded with a statement that the tests do not violate any of the United Nation Security Council’s (UNSC) resolutions.

Consequently, Iran’s view on its ballistic missile ambitions is very clear. It clearly stated that the tests are not part of the JCPOA and no one has the right to interfere in Iranian defence matters. Subsequently, they maintained that JCPOA only deals with nuclear not conventional warheads.

So, did Iran violate the JCPOA? In 2015, UNSC Resolution 2231 was passed and an annex of the resolution states, ‘Iran is

called upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology, until the date eight years after the JCPOA Adoption Day or until the date on which the IAEA submits a report confirming the Broader Conclusion, whichever is earlier.’ According to the text, technically missile test didn’t violate the JCPOA.

Global and regional powers such as the US, Israel, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia have serious concerns regarding Iran’s missile program having direct implications on their security. Some of the Iranian missiles are operational within a range of 2,000 km. It is considered that if Iran continues to test missiles capable to reach beyond its regional adversaries, such technological advancement may contribute to eventual manufacturing of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) in the future. It would give Iran the capability to target the north and central states of the Americas. Restricting and capping the programme will be preferred strategy of the US.

Presently, Trump by stating that the deal is ‘bad’ gave the impression of willingness to withdraw from JCPOA. As the deal is a multiparty negotiated agreement, such a move would be detrimental. Missile tests by Iran at such a time when Trump’s foreign policy is in formulation process is intimidating. The resistance model Iran has adopted is a strong defensive fence to address its regional security concerns. However, according to analysts, if Iran desires to have a cordial relationship with the Trump administration then such a move will be highly destabilising for Iranian interests. It is imperative to understand that upholding and implementing this deal is crucial. For this very purpose, the US and Iran need to understand each other’s security concerns and avoid measures which can stall the treaty.

The writer is a research associate at the Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) Islamabad. She can be reached at asmaakhalid_90@hotmail.com