Daily Times

Four months ago, in these pages, I argued, “in the coming months, it is the PML-N that will either reconcile or lose. If it confronts the army in particular and the judiciary in general, the party will be over. We would then be discussing pros and cons of martial law regime.” The PML-N especially Maryam Nawaz did adopt a defiant attitude and an aggressive party policy where the judiciary was targeted in public speeches, TV interviews and social media handles. However, as predicted, the party in power has to pay the price too: one of its senators, Nehal Hashmi, was jailed for maligning the judiciary and the party’s president, Mian Nawaz Sharif, faced another round of disqualification where he lost the presidentship of the PML-N.

Moreover, the younger brother, Shahbaz Sharif, has seemingly been pressured through the arrest of a top bureaucrat, Ahad Cheema, who was at the forefront of a variety of development projects in Lahore. In addition, the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has witnessed some organizational changes, i.e. DG Rawalpindi. The NAB is keenly pursuing cases against the Sharif family and, as per media reports, the Bureau may decide the cases by mid-summer this year. This will also be the time when the current civil government would have completed its five-year tenure and the country would be entering the general election phase if all things stand neutral.

Nevertheless, in order to prevent further damage to the party (leadership), it seems that the PML-N has somehow revisited its confrontational policy vis-à-vis the powerful state institutions including the judiciary. Had there been no policy restraint, it was Maryam Nawaz, not Shahbaz Sharif, who would have become the new president of the PML-N. I think there are certain rational calculations that underpins such policy dynamics. First, the N League has realized the fact that it cannot sustain a conflictual discourse against the miltablishment. Indeed, anti-judiciary speeches and stance backfired as already mentioned. If the party leadership particularly Maryam and cadre continues to malign or pressure the judiciary, as usually is believed, the judiciary is most likely to get tough in judgments that will severally damage the party in an election year. Secondly, there are reportedly intra-PML-N division in terms of being pro-Nawaz/Maryam and pro-Shahbaz/Hamza. The opponents of PML-N may have tried to exploit such cleavages; however, the party has largely managed to stay intact. With Shahbaz Sharif now in-charge of the party, the rationale is that inner party differences, disputes and divisions can be neutralised. This is an achievable task if party’s top leadership stays united ideologically and organizationally. Thirdly, Shahbaz Sharif is believed to have been the opposite of his elder brother when it comes to miltablishment. Back in 1999 and now in 2014-18, he would have preferred conformist policy towards the judiciary and the military. The latter may also have little issues with Shahbaz Sharif if the party under him avoids conflict with the institution. Fourthly, the Shahbaz government in Punjab has been in the limelight with respect to development projects one way or the other. Shahbaz-Hamza duo played an important role in the electoral strategy of the party during the local bodies and by-elections. Indeed, the PML-N has won majority of the seats, at provincial and the national level, in the by-elections. If 2018 were an election year, inner party disputes over, for example, presidentship would have affected the party negatively. The foregoing are, in my view, the main factors, which determined the political calculus within the Sharif family as well as the party that resulted in favour of Shahbaz Sharif.

If rationality is a guide, one may see the middle course being adopted by both the PML-N and the miltablishment gradually. This is possibly the only way out of this crisis

However, a sub-question arises here; why did Shahbaz Sharif is appointed as an acting, and not permanent, president of the party? Two factors may explain it. First, the Nawaz/Maryam duo believes, and perhaps correctly, that PML-N has been established and guided by Nawaz Sharif historically, and Maryam has popularised it contemporaneously. It is, thus, political, electoral and moral necessity that Nawaz, now as Quaid, oversights the party with Maryam playing a powerful role by default. Secondly, until the NAB cases are judged, it makes little political sense to delegate party powers to the younger brother wholly. Which means if the NAB cases are perceived to have favoured Nawaz/Maryam side of the family, the latter will definitely resume the party’s presidentship. If not, and if Shahbaz Sharif survives the ongoing pressure tactics/cases, it is the former whose position as the powerful face of the party will gradually be established.

Last but not the least, the PML-N has been ruling Punjab for past ten years successively. The party has won convincingly in the by-elections. Maryam indeed has kept the party popular as far as social media and party meetings and procession are concerned. Importantly, the PML-N has also given the impression that it can challenge the miltablishment from within Punjab, which is also the hub and home of the latter. If Punjab versus Punjab thesis is correct, this means the miltablishment may not be able to push or crush the PML-N beyond a point. However, it also does not imply the PML-N has the cadre to confront the powerful miltablishment in the streets. In such a scenario, the PML-N will be further damaged organizationally and electorally for the opposition political parties especially PPP and PTI are ready to fill the vacuum. Moreover, in a PML-N versus miltablishment fight, the country will suffer the most in all terms. Thus, if rationality is a guide, one may see the middle course being adopted by both the PML-N and the miltablishment gradually. This is the possible only way out from this lingering crisis, and perhaps the only option available to the Sharifs to survive in a win-win manner.

The writer is Head, Department of Social Sciences, Iqra University, Islamabad. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright Fellow. He tweets @ejazbhatty

Published in Daily Times, March 4^th 2018.