Daily Times

ISLAMABAD: The stage is set for election on 52 seats in Senate today, with the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) aiming to win enough seats to grab the slot of chairman of the Upper House of parliament.

Of the 52 seats, 46 will be filled by the four provincial assemblies, two by the National Assembly and four by lawmakers representing the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

A total of 135 candidates are in the run for Senate elections from across the country. Among them, 20 are from Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), 14 from Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), 13 from Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) and four from Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP). A total of 65 candidates will be contesting as ‘independents’, also including 23 candidates nominated by the PML-N who have been barred to contest polls on their party ticket in the wake of a ruling issued by the Supreme Court in the Elections Act, 2017, case.

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has already issued a code of conduct to ensure free and fair elections for the Upper House of parliament, violation of which will lead to a fine of up to Rs 100,000 and/or imprisonment term of up to two years.

Nine out of 26 senators of the ruling PML-N have retired, leaving it with 17 members in the Upper House. The party is hoping to clinch all 12 seats from Punjab where it enjoys two-thirds majority with 309 lawmakers in the 371-member assembly. The party nominees will, however, contest the election as independent candidates and may later join PML-N. Its main rival – PTI – also eyes one seat from Punjab.

With 16 lawmakers in the 124-member KP assembly, the PML-N is likely to clinch one seat.

In Sindh where it has nine lawmakers in the 168-member assembly, the PML-N may not grab even a single seat.

The ruling party is also likely to suffer in Balochistan. Though it has largest share in the assembly with 21 out of 65 members belonging to the PML-N, the party may suffer at the hands of rebels who may take the lion’s share out of 11 seats due to differences with the central leadership in Lahore. The party is likely to win a maximum of four seats there.

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The biggest loser in the Senate is the PPP which has been left with only eight lawmakers after retirement of 18 of its 26 senators. While the party may grab around nine seats from Sindh Assembly, it is not likely to secure even a single seat from Punjab, KP and Balochistan.

The PTI which has been left with six senators after the retirement of its one member is likely to double its strength in the Upper House.

The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F), whose three out of five senators have retired, is likely to regain the same number by winning seats in Balochistan and KP.

The PML-Q now has no representation in the Upper House as all of its four senators have retired.

Prominent among those who have retired from the Upper House are Senate Chairman Raza Rabbani, former finance minister Ishaq Dar, Leader of the Opposition Barrister Aitzaz Ahsan, Mushahid Hussain Sayed, Farhatullah Babar, Azam Khan Swati, Kamran Michael, Shahi Syed, Kamil Ali Agha, Talha Mehmood, Tahir Hussain Mashhadi, Nasreen Jalil and Ilyas Bilour.

The Road to Senate: The elections of the Upper House in Pakistan are held on the basis of single transferable vote (STV), a proportional representational system. On the day of the vote, members of the national and provincial assemblies are given four slips of paper and they will name their candidates on the basis of priority.

The mathematics to determine the exact quota of the vote each candidate should receive is worked out by dividing the total value of votes.

Take Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

There are 124 electors.

Each vote is assigned the value of 100.

124×100=12400

This number is divided by number of vacant seats: 7+1=8.

12400/8=1550

Then 1 is added to the final answer, which makes it 1,551.

Now remove the last two digits and we are left with 15.

Add another 1 to it and we will have 16.

This means that each candidate in KP must get 16 votes.

Using the same formula, 171 votes in National Assembly will be required for a senator to be elected from Islamabad, 46 for Punjab, 21 for Sindh and 8 for Balochistan.

When a candidate gets the required priority votes, his remaining priority 1 votes will be transferred to the candidate on 2nd priority. A process that continues until the required number of senators are elected.

Published in Daily Times, March 3^rd 2018.