Daily Times

Pakistan’s Parliament, its Foreign Office and GHQ must deliberate and debate as to what would be impact of such an eventuality on other states. No doubt Iran will be the biggest loser in such a war, because it will force Iranian resources towards the war and away from its current expansive strategy in the Middle East and economy while Qatar has already paid the price for its alliance with Iran, as can be seen by the siege of Qatar by Saudia and UAE.

Just when Pakistan was clandestinely preparing to send its troops, India and Iran signed agreements of far reaching economic and strategic developments. Iran agreed to lease to New Delhi operational control of part of Chabahar Port for 18 months that creates a new transit route between India and Afghanistan enabling it as well access to Central Asian markets bypassing Pakistan. In their summit Indian Prime Minister Modi and the Iranian President Rouhani vowed to expand their economic ties, construction of the Chabahar-Zahedan rail link to boost regional connectivity and energy trade.

Besides economic gains we need not ignore its strategic ramifications including Indian success in getting access to Afghanistan detrimental to Pakistan’s so-called doctrine of strategic depth. Indian diplomats have well-laid out a strategy with enhanced Iranian cooperation to overcome the disadvantages of geography as well neutralise Pakistan’s key influence in the region. India’s investment in Afghanistan crossing more than $Two billion has already given Delhi a overbearing foothold in the war torn economy of Afghanistan much to the pleasure of Americans that are supportive of the Indian role of a regional power pursuing ‘common interests’ in countering terrorism, extremism, illegal drug trafficking and organised crime.

While apparently Indian aim is to help achieve stability in Afghanistan to ensure that anti-Indian militants (or those allegedly supported by Pakistan) don’t find a haven in Afghanistan, there is also the ambition to counter Pakistan and keep it under check on the western borders. Indian overemphasis on the word terrorism is in keeping with Delhi’s position at all international forums is reflective of the direction of the new alliances. A key threat to this relationship relates to India’s strategic partnership with the United States and given Trump administration’s move to revise nuclear deal with Iran, this will be a test for India’s diplomatic and strategic skills.

In order to be pragmatic in our response to the emerging scenario, we have to put our house in order, stop the clash of institutions, let political and military leadership be on the same page and take all issues to the Parliament for its decision on the basis of collective wisdom in the best national interests

Notwithstanding the recent agreements India will support Iran but indirectly and covertly, not coming into a direct confrontation with either Saudia or UAE with whom it has lately developed good relationship. It may be mentioned that while Iran has always supported Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir, Saudi Arabia remains neutral.

Consequences for Pakistan of a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia would be severe. It will face a backlash, in the form of a resurgence in Sunni/Shia violence as happened after the Iranian revolution. Unknown to many people in Pakistan, a small contingent of Shia fighters from Pakistan were actually caught fighting in Syria on Iran’s side. Needless to mention, all the Wahabi miscreants in Pakistan have been receiving financial sustenance from Sunni Gulf states over the years. In the event of any direct war, these proxies will play their subversive part in Pakistan causing a sectarian implosion. Even now their activities are beyond the leash and writ of the state.

Last but not least, given the consistency of decisions in Saudi Arabia, direct war is most probable. Every Saudi step over the past few years has been Iran-centric and has signalled preparations for war. Therefore, it is difficult to see how Saudis will change this mindset especially when Pakistan has readily offered its troops for its defence. Besides, in the event of a war, the outcome remains unknown as we have Israel/Saudia/Pakistan/US/Egypt/UAE on one side and Iran/Russia/Iraq/Syria/Lebanon/etc on the other side with India covertly supporting it along with Afghanistan.

Time is the essence. The present thrust in Saudi foreign policy would only last as long as President Trump is in office since American support will be crucial. At present both the US/UK are supporting Saudia in Yemen and even have their special forces on the ground but if in 2020, a democrat comes into power, it might adversely affect Saudi plans. As far as Pakistanis concerned, it has got itself trapped in a catch 22 dilemma. Once its neutrality is compromised as it is likely, it will be difficult for it to get out of the Middle Eastern quagmire. In order to be pragmatic in our response to the emerging scenario, we have to put our house in order, stop the clash of institutions, let political and military leadership be on the same page and take all issues to the Parliament for its decision on the basis of collective wisdom in the best national interests.

The writer is former High Commissioner of Pakistan to UK and a veteran journalist

Published in Daily Times, February 24^th 2018.