Daily Times

They say that hindsight is 20/20. Nowhere is that more evident than the post-electoral analysis of NA-154 by political pundits and journalists alike. All of them are repeating the same answers to the million-dollar question — what went wrong in Lodhran.

According to most of them, the reason Ali Tareen lost is because people rejected the hereditary politics, money does not buy elections, and if you want to win, you need to get out of the ‘drawing room’. All three are absolutely false. On the contrary, money, dynastic politics, and drawing room intrigue is exactly how Mr Iqbal Shah won the Lodhran by-election.

Firstly, all evidence indicates that Pakistanis love hereditary politics. They don’t trust new people. They prefer to go with the devil they know. One just needs to survey any session of Pakistan’s parliament. It will surely be full of legacies and descendants of political families. The winning PML-N party is itself a family affair. Their ability to weather the current storm has everything to do with their family, which is both numerous and well placed. The PPP candidate in the by-election was the son of an ex-MNA from Lodhran. The winning PML-N candidate Iqbal Shah is the father of a sitting MPA from Lodhran.

Furthermore, Iqbal Shah is better known as Pir Iqbal Shah. In the subcontinent most ‘Pirs’ validate their spiritual seniority through saintly ancestry. It’s no surprise then that Mr Shah’s father was also a well-known Pir. Evidently hereditary politics is not a handicap — it’s an advantage. So choosing Ali Tareen as his father’s replacement was by no means an unusual decision.

The wealth disparity between Ali Tareen and Mr Shah is deceptive because Ali did not run against Mr Shah. He ran against the Government of Pakistan. The Tareen’s have personally done a commendable amount of philanthropy in the area

Secondly, money is a crucial factor in any elections. Many post-election analysis have insinuated that this was somehow a competition between the rich and poor. A kind of David versus Goliath situation where Lodhran valiantly resisted the temptations of Tareen’s vast fortunes and sided with the unassuming Shah. Before correcting this misconception readers are encouraged to research the history of fund allocation in Lodhran before the Tareen era. They will clearly see that this was a very underdeveloped and overlooked district.

It was only after Jahangir Tareen’s presence on Lodhran’s ballots did the government begin to pay the current level of attention. In the 2015 by-election, then Prime Minister Sharif personally promised Rs 2.5 Billion in developmental funds for the sleepy southern town. In 2018 there was again a surge in developmental work by the PML-N government, undoubtedly to inspire good will before the by-election. At the moment, it is being reported that Nawaz Sharif will host the PML-N leaders from Lodhran to generously ‘accept all their demands, whatsoever they may be’ as a reward for their efforts.

The wealth disparity between Ali Tareen and Mr Shah is deceptive because Ali did not run against Mr Shah. He ran against the Government of Pakistan. The Tareen’s have personally done a commendable amount of philanthropy in the area, much of which was overseen by Ali, but it is miniscule compared to the resources utilized by the government since 2013.

The third ‘mistake’ critics believe the Tareens made was spending too much time in drawing rooms. It was implied that Ali was not in the field as much as he should have and senior Tareen was nowhere in sight. An article in Dawn went as far as saying that Ali was ‘casual to a fault.’ That is again an incorrect explanation. Both father and son have been campaigning non-stop since 2013.

Lodhran is the only constituency in Pakistan where the MNA spot has been challenged four times in four years. First in 2013 where Jahangir Tareen lost, followed by a recount where he won. After that, a by-election in 2015 then another in 2018. That is 15 years worth of elections in a single tenure. Technically the Tareen’s have been campaigning non-stop for the last four years.

What’s more likely is that the Tareens did everything right. So much so that the Tareen threat united many influential bigwigs of Lodhran like Kanju, Baloch, Shah, and Bukhari. Since the depth of this alliance only became visible after the electoral upset, one can assume all this must have happened behind the scenes… probably in drawing rooms. It should be noted that this rare détente between Lodhran rivals is unsustainable and likely to disintegrate after PML-N announces their general election candidate for NA-154. This will provide a better opportunity for the prodigal son to return.

Regardless of which party one supports, political competition and inclusion of young and vibrant parliamentarians is essential for a progressive democracy. Otherwise one risks having a stale monopoly. That often leads to lethargic governance, emboldened corruption and eventually tyranny. PTI is not for everyone, but they have done a thorough job as an opposition party by keeping every other party on its toes. Its latest defeat is a step back, and will surely affect the balance of power in Pakistan’s political arena.

The writer is an agriculturist with degrees in Economics and Mass Communication. He can be reached at Skhanzada@ymail.com

Published in Daily Times, February 22^nd 2018.