Daily Times

The damaging hostility between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir has now acquired ominous dimensions. Beyond the regular border shelling by both countries, there is a marked increase infrequency of cross-border attacks on Indian forces by militant groups which are allegedly supported by Pakistan. The tension in Kashmir has hardened public opinion in India, with increasing calls to deliver a punishing counterstrike on Pakistan.

The Muslim majority state of Kashmir was politically divided over joining India or Pakistan at the partition of India in 1947. Sheikh Abdullah, the leading politician in the area, had differences with Pakistan’s founder Jinnah. Moreover, Abdullah an avowed secular politician didn’t approve of Kashmir joining Muslim Pakistan. In 1948, when Pakistani irregular forces entered the state to capture it by force, the unpopular despot Hari Singh, the Hindu maharaja of the territory acceded to India. Singh accepted Indian military assistance, leading to the first war between India and Pakistan. Ever since then, Pakistan has contested Kashmir’s accession to India. Pakistan insists that a UN supervised plebiscite is the only way to determine Kashmir’s future.

In terms territory controlled, India controls around 60 percent, including Jammu, the Kashmir Valley, Ladakh, and the Siachen Glacier; Pakistan controls about 30 percent, comprising Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan; while China controls 10 percent including Demchok district, the Shaksgam Valley, and the Aksai Chin region. The 1972 Simla Agreement between India and Pakistan designated the cease-fire Line in Kashmir as the ‘Line of Control’ (LOC). Since then, the LOC has become the de facto border between Indian and Pakistani Kashmir.

Despite its relatively small size, the state of Jammu and Kashmir holds enormous symbolic and historical importance for both India and Pakistan. It has soured bilateral relations between the two neighbours for 70 years. Both sides have spent much blood and wealth on a seemingly intractable conflict. Nationalistic politics in India and Pakistan have further convoluted the difficulty of finding a solution to the quarrel over an area that both sides claim in their entirety. Having Kashmir’s Muslim majority bolsters India’s secular credentials. Conversely, Kashmir’s Muslim character falls firmly within the religious underpinnings of Pakistan’s nationhood.

Kashmir has also added national security dimensions for both India and Pakistan. This disputed territory is the primary source of water and power generation for both countries. India’s electricity requirements have increased due to its growing economy and population. It looks to Kashmir to expand its hydro facilities. On the other hand, Pakistan fears that India may divert water it needs for irrigation, and use water-scarcity as a weapon against Pakistan.

A fifth Indo-Pak war could involve a nuclear exchange which would result in the total annihilation of life on the subcontinent

However, the general contours of the Kashmir dispute haven’t changed in decades. In a nutshell, Pakistan can’t coerce India into making territorial concessions on Kashmir. India can’t address the genuine alienation of the people of Indian Kashmir through the use of pellet guns, intimidation, and violence. Furthermore, only creative diplomacy, not more hyper-nationalist propaganda, can resolve this enduring dispute.

A negotiated settlement of the Kashmir dispute is in the interest of both parties. Arguably, a settlement would be more to Pakistan’s benefit to help pull it out of the rut of unsustainable defence spending, low growth rates, and a militarized society. Any Kashmir resolution would need to protect the core interests of both countries such as a terrorism-free border for India and the uninterrupted flow of water for Pakistan.

At this stage, the animosity between India and Pakistan rules out shared sovereignty over Kashmir. An independent Kashmir doesn’t seem feasible either. Furthermore, an exchange of territory is unlikely given the heated nationalist passion in both countries. Therefore, the most practical solution is to recognize existing borders in Kashmir. Also, decoupling Kashmir from other bilateral concerns between India and Pakistan such as increasing trade and containing terrorism would help. As the India-Pakistan relationship returns to a calmer state, new ideas can emerge on sharing sovereignty in Kashmir more permanently.

Pakistan remains oblivious to the gathering storm on its border with India. The same tired slogans mark the annual Kashmir day observances in Pakistan: ‘Kashmir is the unfinished agenda of Partition!’ ‘Kashmir is Pakistan’s jugular vein!’ ‘Kashmir and Pakistan are like one soul in two hearts!’ ‘Kashmir will become Pakistan.’ Despite this political sloganeering and nationalistic histrionics, the odds appear firmly stacked against a Kashmir settlement in Pakistan’s favour. Unfortunately, the Pakistani psyche won’t accept this undeniable reality.

If India responds to the alleged Pakistani provocations, this could lead to a fifth Indo-Pak war, except this one could involve a nuclear exchange resulting in the total annihilation of life on the subcontinent.

The writer can be reached at shgcci@gmail.com

Published in Daily Times, February 17^th 2018.