Daily Times

Maldives is one of the ethereal and tranquil Island Nations in the Indian Ocean. However, the peace and tranquillity was recently shattered, when the President Abdulla Yameen, declared an emergency for 15 days, following a Supreme Court order for the release of nine opposition leaders and reinstated the12 expelled dissident MPs.

He sent armed troops to the country’s apex court and threatened to arrest two Supreme Court Judges, who had signed the order. His troops also arrested the former President Munoon Abdul Gayoom for siding with his opponents. The threat has worked, as all the judges of the court, meekly caved in to his threat by rescinding the initial order passed by the court.

In one stroke, Abdulla Yameen has managed to crush the entire opposition and paved the way for his continuance in office.

The ground for a shift in foreign policy took place in Maldives, when a former president Mohammed Waheed Hassan had cancelled the $511 million contract initially awarded to GMR, a Bangalore based infrastructural company, by his predecessor, Mohamed Nasheed, for expanding and upgrading the Male international airport. Waheed Hassan awarded the contract instead to Beijing Urban Construction Group Company Limited. It may be mentioned here that it was India, which came to the rescue of Maldives, by sending paratroopers and commandos, during an attempted coup in the country in November 1988. Abdulla Yameen is simply continuing the pro-China policy of Waheed Hassan.

If the US refuses to intervene, China will take full advantage of the already fragile situation in the Island country and will succeed in building a naval base, which will create severe security implications for the region

In another disturbing development, the president has also allowed the Islamic radicals to occupy important positions. The radicalization is likely to destroy the social fabric of the country. The fundamentals are biding their time to take over the country. Strangely, Abdulla Yameen has ignored the implications of filling important positions with fundamentalists for his own political gains. The radicals have already been accused of killing many human rights activists in the country.

The former presidents Gayoom and Nasheed have sent a distress call to India to intervene in Maldives and defuse the crisis before it spirals out of control. However, as the present president, has the backing of China, it is unlikely India will contemplate to send troops to Maldives, as any such an attempt would lead to another Doklam like standoff with China.

Although, the United States and the United Nations, have criticised the President for declaring emergency in utter disregard to the constitution and also for threatening the to arrest the judges. India is not confident of any direct US involvement in the affairs of the Maldives.

Lately, India has also been unhappy with growing Chinese influence in India’s backyard. It believes that the Chinese investment in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal and now Maldives is part of a larger plan to encircle India. According to sources, China is on the verge of finalizing with the Maldives government to set up a naval base on the Island, a prospect that can lead to serious security issue for India.

India finds itself in a bind. Its failure to act will allow China to set up a military and naval base on the island which will reduce India’s influence in the region and, on the other hand, if it decides to send its military to Maldives, like it did in 1988, it may lead to a potential conflict with China, which India wants to avoid at all costs

The elections in Maldives are scheduled to be held later this year and Abdulla Yameen knows that he does have a chance to win if free and fair elections are held, as both Gayoom and Nasheed have a big following in the country. It is for this reason that he may scuttle the elections, as he knows full well that his fate would be sealed once any one of the former opponents emerge as winners. China, also wants Yameen to continue, as the other opposition leaders are perceived to be closer to India.

In an article published in the Indian Express, the former Maldivian president Mohamed Nasheed has appealed to India to take a lead in solving the present crisis by taking the help of the International community to put pressure on Abdulla Yameen’s government. He has also appealed for a free and fair election under the aegis of International supervision. He has also warned India that if it fails to act, the Island nation will descend into instability and chaos.

India finds itself in a bind. If it fails to act, China will be able to set up a military and naval base on the island, and thereby reduce India’s influence in the region and, on the other hand, if it decides to send its military to Maldives, like it did in 1988, this may lead to a potential conflict with China, which India wants to avoid at all costs. India seems to have tied itself in knots.

The only way to solve the present crisis is for the United Nations along with the United States to put pressure on Yameen to lift the emergency and restore the constitutional rights of the citizens, especially his opponents, to enable them to participate in the coming elections. If the US refuses to intervene, China will take full advantage of the already fragile situation in the Island nation and will succeed in building a naval base in the country, which will have huge security implications in the region.

The writer is an independent columnist and political commentator

Published in Daily Times, February 17^th 2018.