Daily Times

China’s 19th Communist Party Congress, a quinquennial event, was one of the most important political development last year. In a three and half hour address, President Xi Jinping outlined his vision for the country’s future. While delineating the thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era, he said that China was at a ‘new historic juncture’. With a robust political standing, ambitious economic plans and a wobbling US influence, the time is perfect for China to fill the void. It wouldn’t be wrong to say that it has already started doing so.

One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative that aims to connect whole of what is called Eurasia through maritime and landlocked routes is growing. Last month, Xi added the Arctic and Latin America to the aforesaid plan, leaving out only Canada, the US and Japan.

The Trans-Pacific Maritime Silk Road and Polar Silk Road connect Latin America and Arctic (respectively) with China, adding 33.7 million square kilometres. If China successfully integrates this considerable part of the world, it can pave its way to, as Xi put it in the party Congress, “moving closer to centre stage and making greater contributions to mankind”. Economic integration manifests a more open Chinese policy, whereas, with Trump at the helm, the US is turning more inward looking.

The sheer size of the country and its huge population make China a good contender for global supremacy. When the topic is that of energy, China is the most critical factor given its energy consumption. When China planned to ban petrol and diesel cars, the policy change mattered a lot for the global industry as China is home to the largest market of vehicles sold in the world. The Chinese population is young. Multinationals all over the world vie to get a piece of this market. China’s middle class is expected to grow from 430 million today to 780 million in the2020s.

A recent development in this regard deserves attention. After 25 years of wait, China has finally started trading Yuan oil futures. Yes, it challenges the dominance of the dollar, as most of the world’s commodity trade is carried in US dollars. With China interested in buying a major stake in the impending Aramco IPO, one can be hopeful that Saudi Arabia also accepts Yuan oil futures. One can relate OBOR to this growing eagerness to use Yuan for trade.

There are also geopolitical dimensions to Chinese ascent as well. The camaraderie between Russia and China is growing. Recently, an extension of East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline that connects China and Russia started its operation, which has resulted in doubling Russian oil supplies to China. The country’s dominance in the South China Sea, from which $5trillion of trade passes annually, is another step to increase its regional influence. Sri Lanka is a good example of how China is using its economic power to influence the country by helping them in infrastructure projects. Many analysts have even argued that the US has already lost its influence in Asia.

The Asian region is of vital economic and political importance. Many reports say that Asia is going to be the future business hub and the primary driver of growth. The number of billionaires in Asia has already passed that of the US (but the later control more wealth).

But there are some problems as well. Freedom of expression and criticism of the government is something that the current administration doesn’t encourage at all. A video by the BBC showed a totalitarian state in the province of Xinjiang, where the majority of the population is Muslim (Uyghurs). People were afraid of even commenting on the government.

The sheer size of the country and its huge population make China a good contender for global supremacy. Multinationals all over the world vie to get a piece of this market

Concerns for a colossal debt funded economy and bad loans are also not unfounded. The disparity between urban and rural population is deplorable. The difference between the eastern coastal regions and the western belt is also enormous. If China is to play a more active part on the global stage, it should start working on the issues mentioned above.

No country can ever be perfect. That China has problems is entirely natural. The fact that it is working on them is what matters. To give a prognosis about who will win the race is not possible. There are many factors that estimates and predictions cannot encompass. But, as mentioned in my previous article, the question is about a trend.

As of today, if we are to bet on potential, China qualifies as a first option. It is growing and strengthening its economic and political influence. We shouldn’t be surprised that after China is done with integrating the Eurasian landmass, reforming its regulations and becoming more open, the Pax Sinica will reign supreme. Only time will tell.

The writer is a student of International Relations with interest in International Political Economy. He can be reached at osamarizvi10@hotmail.com

Published in Daily Times, February 16^th 2018.