Daily Times

LAHORE: Despite its two-third majority in the provincial assembly of Punjab, PML-N can still lose at least one Senate seat from the province if the opposition manages to unite behind a single candidate. Though both PTI and PML-Q have announced their candidates, Sunday’s round of meetings among representatives of three major opposition parties in the province suggest that the option of a unanimous candidate remains open.

Interviews with MPAs suggest that some segments in the PPP are trying to rally support for outgoing senator Aitzaz Ahsan as a unanimous candidate.

And to avoid any other setback, the ruling PML-N has decided to make it mandatory for its members to mention both first and second priority candidates on ballot papers this.

Punjab Assembly members have to elect seven senators on general seats, two each on technocrat/ulema and women seats and one on minorities’ seat.

Opposition’s strategy: The combined opposition has 48 members in the House of 371. PTI has 30 seats, PPP and PML-Q have eight each, JI has one and there is an independent lawmaker. As per the formula for elections, a contestant on general seats will require 46.38 votes to win, meaning that if they rally behind a candidate, opposition lawmakers can secure at least one general seat. To increase their chances, opposition lawmakers may also nominate a unanimous candidate as second priority in the list.

Ruling party: The ruling PML-N and its allied parties have 320 members in the House. It has decided to continue the tried and tested method of dividing legislators into different blocs, each one of which will have sufficient number to secure a seat. These blocs will nominate a different candidate as top priority.

To avoid a situation where the ruling party may lose more than one of the seven seats, the party’s whip in the PA will make it mandatory for MPAs to mention names of first as well as second priority candidates. This will avoid losses as a result of any mistakes by MPAs of a particular bloc, says chief whip Rana Arshad. He says he and Law Minister Rana Sanaullah will monitor arrangements on the election day to ensure that MPAs follow their blocs and avoid any erroneous mistakes.

In 2012, an independent candidate, Mohsin Leghari, had managed to secure a seat with little margin against the ruling party’s nominee because treasury members did not nominate any second priority candidate back then.

Expected Candidates of N-League: Speaking to Daily Times, treasury MPAs mentioned the names of Raja Zafarul Haq, Asif Saeed Kirmani, Mushahid Hussain Syed (who joined the PML-N on Sunday), and Kamran Michael as likely candidates from the province. Though, legislators belonging to Chief Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s camp are opposed to Mushahid Hussain Syed’s candidacy, but PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif appears inclined at offering the party ticket to him because Syed’s experience with foreign affairs, particularly his role in Pakistan-China relations and CPEC-related developments. On women’s seats, two close aides of Maryam Nawaz, Ayesha Javed and Azma Bukhari, are among the favourites.

Expected Candidates of Opposition: Though the PTI has announced former governor Chaudhary Sarwar as its candidate, but the PPP is interested in fielding Aitzaz Ahsan as opposition’s unanimous candidate and it has started negotiations in this regard. Nawab Shehzad Khakwani is being considered as a second priority candidate from the PPP. He is the son-in-law of party leader Mian Manzoor Wattoo. Though some PPP legislators, while talking to this scribe, showed their disappointment on his name, saying that his selection would be unfair to workers who have served the party for a much longer period. Most opposition legislators interviewed appeared comfortable with Aitzaz Ahsan’s name as unanimous opposition candidate.

FORMULA FOR VOTING IN PUNJAB ASSEMBLY: Valid votes polled will be multiplied with 100 and then divided with the seats in the general category, plus one. After adding one to the resulting number, the latter will again be divided by 100 to arrive at the number of votes to be secured for winning a seat.

Given the current strength of the provincial assembly at 371, every candidate on general seat will require at least 46.38 votes, while on the technocrats and women seat, every candidate will require at least 123.67 votes. For minority seats, at least 185.51 votes will be required for victory.

Published in Daily Times, February 5^th 2018.