Daily Times

We are barely a month into 2018 but it almost feels like a decade has passed. It is hard to believe all that has happened in this month alone; Trump’s anti-Pakistan tweets, the joint opposition’s Lahore dharna, Dr Zafar Arif’s shocking death, the Balochistan assembly fiasco, Zainab’s heartbreaking tragedy and the perpetrator’s arrest two weeks later, Dr Shahid Masood’s appalling misconduct, Naqeebullah’s fake encounter and Rao Anwar’s disappearance, PMLN’s electoral rallies, and back-to-back blasts in Afghanistan. While these events are significant in their own right, the intensity with which they are being received by the public tells a different story. Every issue is becoming hyper-politicized at a time of growing collective sensitivity toward problems that were previously tolerated. This is a symptom of a broader transformation taking place in society.

Although some of this heightened activity can be attributed to the upcoming general elections, the desperation of all parties involved shows that the stakes are much higher this time around. The status quo in the country has always been in favour of the military, while the elected politicians served within a narrowly defined scope of governance. This arrangement is largely sustained by pro-military sentiments within the country’s influential urban middle class, controlling important institutions such as media, bureaucracy, judiciary and corporations.

Since the 2000s, Pakistan’s economy grew substantially owing to American interests in the region and a thriving Middle East, which offered sizable employment opportunities. This new influx of foreign currency was more democratic than traditional wealth generation modes in the country like large land holdings and industry; and allowed wealth to trickle down to small towns and villages. Large urban centres also benefitted from growth in the service sector with new banks and telecommunication operators entering the market.

By the 2010s, the numbers and confidence of the urban middle class grew to the extent that it ventured into politics for the first time with Imran Khan’s PTI. Previously, Pervez Musharraf’s extended rule culminated in fissures within the urban middle class as some disgruntled members of civil society supported Iftikhar Chaudhry’s rebellion against Musharraf. PTI’s failure to sweep the national elections slowly led the professional urban class back into the military’s camp, while the Supreme Court also reverted to the establishment, but as an independent ally this time.

While the country’s middle class went through an existential crisis, the masses remained steadfast in their support for traditional politicians. Meanwhile, a substantial portion of young entrants into the middle class, primarily from rural and semi-urban areas of Punjab, felt socially uncomfortable among their peers within the established urban professional class. At the same time, they felt confident enough to follow their own political instincts. The rise of social media gave these young men and women the opportunity to share their feelings, connect with each other and organize themselves outside the prevalent political system.

Daughters and sons of clerks, small landowners, traders, shopkeepers, nurses, and non-commissioned public employees started developing their own political identity, which was separate from that of their prosperous cousins who favoured the military-PTI nexus. These young people also preferred to be motivated by bigger ideological goals that matched their ambitions instead of the patronage politics followed by their parents. They found what they were looking for in the unlikeliest of parties: the PMLN.

Nawaz Sharif’s politics had always been devoid of ideology or substance. For most of the last four decades, he was the military’s puppet at his worst and a patronage organizer at his best. He enjoyed ample electoral support with the masses in central Punjab, but this support was never ideological or passionate

Nawaz Sharif’s politics had always been devoid of ideology or substance. For most of the last four decades, he was the military’s puppet at his worst and a patronage organizer at his best. He enjoyed ample electoral support with the masses in central Punjab, but this support was never ideological or passionate. His bland politics were all set to wane with time or morph into Shahbaz Sharif’s politics of compromise and mediocracy if it was not for his daughter, Maryam Nawaz. Like a breath of fresh air, Maryam entered politics with passion and guts. She worked relentlessly to establish social media support for her father, while constructing an ideology loosely based in democratic rule and progressive values. Over the last few years, she attracted spirited support from young people across Punjab and has evolved into a force to be reckoned with.

Nawaz Sharif’s unexpected rebellion after his disqualification last July owes a lot to Maryam’s courage. Massive crowds of young men appeared to greet Nawaz Sharif at every stop on his GT road yatra to Lahore. Unlike traditional PMLN voters, these crowds were highly charged and vigorously responded to Nawaz’s calls for justice. Maryam’s impassioned youth and Nawaz’s traditional vote has now combined to become the establishment’s worst nightmare.

Military, judiciary, opposition parties and some media outlets are helplessly watching Nawaz Sharif as he is all set to take Punjab by storm in the2018 elections. All institutions and individuals with vested interests in the status quo are desperately trying to retain their turf using all means possible, while Nawaz refuses to back down owing to the mass support he currently enjoys. The ensuing turmoil is a testament to a shift in the status quo.

While it is unlikely that Nawaz will be able to assert complete control over the establishment anytime soon, it is inevitable that he will gain some ground as things get reshuffled and renegotiated. The current political storm can end once all parties learn to live with the new reality of power in Pakistan: true democratic rule.

The writer is an Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Administration at Cleveland State University. He can be reached at obedpasha@gmail.com. Twitter @RamblingSufi

Published in Daily Times, January 30^th 2018.