Daily Times

Since the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between Pakistan and China in 1950, the bilateral relations between the two neighbours have gradually deepened. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has contributed a new path to these bilateral relations. On the contrast, Pakistan’s relations with its oldest “ally”, the United States have lately seen tremendous tensions and strain. One major reason behind US’ hostility is the increasing Sino-Pakistan closeness.

It is generally said that friendship between Pakistan and China is “higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, stronger than steel and sweeter than honey”. These strong bonds are certainly based on mutual interests. What makes this relation even interesting is its defiance of super powers during the Cold War and enduring friendship in the post-Cold War world structure.

Following the 1949 revolution in China, the new Chinese government wanted a membership in the United Nations. The prospects of the socialist China enjoying a veto power posed a great deal of threat to US’ interests in the socialist block. The Soviet Union was already a member in the Five Big Club at the UN and the addition of China could possibly translate into the balancing of power in the socialist bloc.

The US went on to oppose China’s demand till early 1970s when the UN finally recognised the new Chinese government and granted it the membership in the world body. Pakistan acted as a bridge between the two rival countries and helped them to build diplomatic relations.

It would be prudent to maintain the ties we have built with the US over the years. The concept of ‘eternal friendship’ doesn’t exist in matters of foreign policy. The only eternal friend is a country’s national interest

Despite the US’ strong opposition to China’s admission in the UN, Pakistan kept on defying the former’s pressure and advocated for China’s right to gain membership in the UN.

The alliance between the US and Pakistan was formulated under the South East Asia Treaty Organisation (1954) and Central Treaty Organisation (1955).

Despite these treaties, the allies never offered their support to Pakistan during the Indo-Pak wars in 1965 and 1971. Nonetheless, China did come to support Pakistan in the latter’s war with India — an old enemy of China that faced severe defeat in Sino-Indian war of 1962. The war was a major contributor to Sino-Pakistan Boundary agreement in 1963.

China considered Pakistan an important country in the post-1962 Sino-Indian war scenario.

Following were the mutual interests shared by China and Pakistan:

Firstly, China felt apprehension on SEATO and CENTO. Pakistan made it clear that the alliances were not against China. It helped to develop confidence between the two countries;

Secondly, China had to confront various challenges under its new government after 1949. The replacement of Chiang Kai Shek China as member of the United Nations was one of the big challenges. The opposition of the US and other countries convinced China to have friends in South Asia and other regions. Pakistan was supportive of China’s demand for membership in the world body. It rejected the concept of Two China and supported idea of One China. Thus, China felt Pakistan a natural ally in the Cold War period;

Thirdly, the increasing presence of the United States in the South Asia was against the interests of China. Post Indo-China war of 1962 closeness between the US and India increased China’s insecurity. Thus, China adopted counter strategy. Pakistan was strong country in the region and could effectively help China in its strategy.

Fourthly, in the wake of unrest and Indian interference in the eastern wing of Pakistan (now Bangladesh), the former Soviet Union and India signed Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation in August, 1971. China took hard stance and condemned Indian involvement. The treaty jeopardized Chinese interests in the region. Thus, Pakistan was the only country which could support China in achieving its interests in South Asia.

Fifthly, China enjoys common borders with Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. The Central Asian Republics (CARs) are plenty of natural resources. Their oil, gas and uranium reserves may set the future energy course of the world. The presence of the United States in Afghanistan was and is to contain increasing influence of China and other countries in the regions of Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia and in the Indian ocean. Pakistan is important for the US and its allies as CARs are landlocked states. Pakistan’s seaports are important for the countries having who wise to have an access to CARs. China needs Pakistan to counter anti-Sino strategy in CARs;

Sixthly, India conducted nuclear explosions in 1974. The power of balance tilted in favour of India in the region. As a result, Pakistan also initiated its own nuclear program. Nuclear Pakistan was in favour of China to check increasing influence of India in the region;

Lastly, South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) came into existence in 1985 at Dhaka. It is a non-political and economic, cultural and social organisation. The member countries may not discuss their political problems at the forum of SAARC. Some analysts are of the opinion that its non-political exposure has ensured survival of the organization in the region. It has population of more than 1.3 billion. The organization having such big consumption market is important for China. The US, China and Russia have status of observers in the organization. It manifests the importance of the region of South Asia and SAARC;

Pakistan was amongst the first countries in 1950 to renounce its relations with Republic of China in Taiwan and recognized People’s Republic of China. The relations between the two countries emerged much stronger during the period of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto as foreign minister of Pakistan. It extended its hand of cooperation and friendship to China.

Following are the main interests of Pakistan:

Firstly, though China was a socialist country, it had no expansionist designs. The former Soviet Union having expansionist designs was dangerous to Pakistan. It wanted to export its communism to other countries. Thus, Pakistan felt more comfortable with a socialist country of China;

Secondly, the US and other allies, through SEATO, CENTO and Ankara Pact 1959, did not support Pakistan in its war with India in 1965. Sanctions imposed by the US affected the war capacity of Pakistan; however, it faced Indian attack bravely. It convinced Pakistan to also search other friends… China was the best option;

Thirdly, India is common enemy of Pakistan and China. Thus, friendship between the two countries is natural;

Fourthly, Pakistan was in need of cooperation and support for its nuclear program. Probably China was the best option for Pakistan;

Fifthly, the Soviet Union landed its forces in Afghanistan on December 29, 1979. It is said that such Soviet move was aimed at having access to warm waters of the Indian Ocean. Gwadar was the target. Pakistan held foreign forces in Afghanistan as a threat to its security and existence. It needed support of China to contain soviet expansionism. China condemned the Soviet invasion;

Sixthly, after withdrawal of the foreign forces from Afghanistan, the U.S and its allies left Pakistan alone to face the consequences. Later on, the US accepted that it was their mistake. The Taliban filled the vacuum in Afghanistan and installed their government. Pakistan recognized new government of Afghanistan. China never recognized Taliban government. However, China continued its support to Pakistan and it again felt that China might continue despite opposition of the US and other countries;

The world witnessed three main changes on international level in post-cold war period. Firstly, disunion of the Soviet Union, secondly, 9/11 attacks on the US and subsequent War on Terror and thirdly, launching of China Pakistan Economic Corridor. The Corridor is revival of old silk trade route for economic and trade purposes. All the countries have been invited to participate in the Corridor.

CPEC though is economic connectivity and to promote international trade but certainly it has political, strategic, social and cultural implications. Moreover, the Corridor has challenges also:

Firstly, the US and India are in unrest on launching of CPEC. India and Iran are developing Chabahar seaport near to Gwadar seaport;

Secondly, Narendra Modi was first Prime Minister of India who visited Israel. Reciprocating the gesture, Israeli Prime Minister visited India for six days in third week of January 2018. US, India and Israel strategic partnership in South Asia is aimed at containing CPEC and supporting Indian dominancy in the region;

Thirdly, the U.S President started his year of 2018 with tweet against Pakistan and continued to increase pressure on it. The tweet conveys impression that how much failure of the U.S in Afghanistan controls the thinking of the US led by Trump. It also helps to understand Pakistan’s importance for the US. The President Trump’s tweet based foreign policy has held Pakistan as a country that cooperates the US for sake of money. He accused Pakistan of providing safe havens to the terrorists. On the other side, the US officials of different categories are recognizing the sacrifices rendered by Pakistan in combating terrorism. Pakistan made it clear that it did not need aid at the cost of national dignity. Increased pressure on Pakistan may compel it to go further deeper in the friendship of China vis-à-vis the US;

Fourthly, the United States unveiled its National Security Strategy 2018 on January 20. The policy paper holds China and Russia as threat to its dominance and power. CPEC may face stronger resistance from the U.S throughout the year 2018;

Fifthly, political stability in Pakistan is the most important for the success of CPEC. It will yield positive impact on progress and prosperity of the country;

Sixthly, increasing extremism in Pakistan and its possible impact on Uyghur’s movement in Xingjiang, the province of China, may create hindrances in smooth functioning of CPEC. Pakistan has officially condemned the movement. Apart from extremism in Pakistan if the movement gets momentum it may have possible implications for Pakistan and CPEC as the province of Xingjiang is on central route of the corridor;

Seventhly, investment of other countries and China in Pakistan needs go side by side. It may increase confidence of other countries in CPEC;

Japan was tenth largest investment partner of Pakistan in 2008-09. Japanese investment is mainly in the sector of automobile which stood 40% in the same year. According to Economic Survey of Pakistan 2016-17, Foreign Direct Investment flow of Japan in Pakistan stood at $ 42.1 Million. The Japanese automobile companies are playing important role in economy of Pakistan. In November 2017, the Japanese ambassador to Pakistan said in Islamabad that his country was not against the corridor and might also help in the project. According to press news, the Deputy Press Secretary of Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, while talking on Japanese Foreign Minister’s visit to Pakistan in January, 2018, stated that his government was keen to see the project more open, transparent and financially viable. Japan and Pakistan may jointly explore possible Japanese cooperation for enhancing the concept of CPEC to achieve the objectives of the corridor;

CPEC is need of China and Pakistan. Without analysing a point of which country needs it more, it would be appropriate to mention that increasing population of China requires employment opportunities within country and abroad. Thus, CPEC has provided substantial opportunity of earning livelihood to the Chinese. Pakistan, being energy crisis country, was in need of investment/aid in energy sector. CPEC has provided such opportunity to the country.

Pakistan may prepare its foreign policy by keeping its friendship experience with the United States. Because the concept of ‘eternal friend’ may not work in foreign policy as national interest is actually the eternal friend and interest.

The writer is an author and has a doctorate in Political Science

Published in Daily Times, January 28^th 2018.