Daily Times

The present US-Pakistan bilateral relationship resembles a poor quality soap opera, full of sentimentality and melodrama. Words like lies, deceit, disloyalty and betrayal from a cast of characters including US President Trump and Pakistan’s powerful Army Chief Bajwa describe the state of a complex and strained relationship. This unwelcome disruption in ties between the two countries comes at a crucial time, in a particularly dangerous and volatile part of the world.

So what has brought the US-Pakistan relationship to its current unfortunate pass? For its part, the US feels shortchanged for receiving scant cooperation from Pakistan to extricate itself from its self-created Afghan quagmire; in spite of doling out billions in military and economic aid. In turn, Pakistan feels aggrieved that the US hasn’t fully recognized its significant losses in men and material in the war on terror and India-centric strategic concerns in the region. Also, Pakistan refuses to accept any blame for US failures in Afghanistan.

Nonetheless, Trump’s latest diatribe has served to redefine the US-Pakistan relationship. Past US administrations have attempted the same with limited affect. After Trump’s tweet, the US announced the suspension of military aid and reimbursements in excess of two billion dollars to Pakistan. The punitive US decision raises the ante on dealing with Pakistan’s alleged duplicitous behaviour, which the Trump administration had been threatening for some time. However, aid suspension alone may not resolve the contentious issue of the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network fighting US forces in Afghanistan finding safe-haven in Pakistan.

Nearly half of US aid, not as intended, has helped to transform the Pakistani military into the formidable India-focused, fighting machine it is today

In both countries, particularly in Pakistan, the US aid suspension has started a heated debate on which country needs the other more. The answer to this question, historically speaking, is easy. Since 1948, the US has pumped over $80 billion in direct aid to Pakistan. Initially, the US justified its aid to Pakistan as part of its quest to contain Communism by spreading democracy overseas. In the 1990s, the US punished Pakistan for developing nuclear weapons by cutting off security assistance. Since 9/11, US military aid has focused on improving Pakistan’s capabilities to combat terrorism and to reimburse the costs of using Pakistani facilities to conduct the war in Afghanistan.

Nearly half of US aid, not as intended, has helped to transform the Pakistani military into the formidable, India-focused, fighting machine it is today. Furthermore, direct US economic aid and influence with international lending institutions, has helped to stave off financial disaster for Pakistan’s weak economy many times. That said the Pakistani leadership is fully aware that the US can’t afford to completely disengage or walk away from Pakistan owing to the ongoing Afghan conflict. Pakistan provides vital access for US military supplies intended for the US and other troops fighting in Afghanistan. Moreover, over time due to perceived US fickleness as an ally, Pakistan has strengthened its strategic relationship with China.

As a result, the Pakistan military is no longer reliant on US military aid and equipment. Also, growing Chinese economic investments in Pakistan include over $60 billion in the Chinese Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). CPEC, if properly managed, could have a positive long-term impact on the Pakistan economy. In summary, while Washington leverage over Islamabad has reduced as the bilateral relationship has deteriorated, Pakistan’s partnership with China has grown by leaps and bounds. Therefore, just expecting to force Pakistan to the US bidding is unlikely to work.

Is the rift in relations between two unlikely allies permanent or fixable? Strong bilateral relations, generally speaking, require shared values. The mom and apple pie version of US exceptionalism, reflected in democratic ideals and personal freedoms, has few takers in Pakistan. Moreover, many Pakistanis regard the US interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan as a hegemonic display of power directed at Muslim countries. Additionally, the Pakistanis consider the more recent US strategic shift towards arch-enemy India, as the ultimate betrayal. Despite the substantial outlay of aid, the cumulative effect of the above factors is that the US receives consistently high negative ratings in polls conducted in Pakistan.

Conversely, Pakistan fits the description of an ‘illiberal’ democracy which has little regard for the rights of women, religious minorities, and disaffected ethnic groups. For much of its history, Pakistan has been an authoritarian state, enjoying good transactional ties with successive US administrations in cahoots with military dictatorships globally. In the past, the military-to-military engagement between the US and Pakistan has been the strongest core of the bilateral relationship. Nevertheless, more Americans in the corridors of power view Pakistan negatively than ever before.

But it can’t be all doom and gloom. While the US and Pakistan may not share values, they do have common interests, and this should shape a mature relationship in the future. Currently, it is in the strong interest of both countries to deal with the chaotic situation in Afghanistan. The US faces an unenviable dilemma knowing it is fighting an unwinnable war in Afghanistan which it can’t leave with the appearance of defeat either. It can expand the war into neighbouring Pakistan, to improve the odds for a favourable outcome and hazard destabilizing a nuclear weapon state. Hence, it seems the least risky way out of the Afghan mess is to wean Pakistan away from providing safe-haven to Afghan terror groups, by continuing a quiet carrot and stick approach, while working towards a political settlement which helps all parties.

The writer can be reached at shgcci@gmail.com

Published in Daily Times, January 22^nd 2018.