Daily Times

A think tank in Lahore, IDEAS, has recently published a report on political attitudes, and in doing so, effectively kicked off what could be a year’s worth of constituency analysis, as Pakistan awaits its next general election.

The report has been extensively discussed in the press. That its key findings are generally favourable to the ruling PML-N has resulted in it being triumphantly touted by party supporters. Others, mainly PTI followers have chosen to largely dismiss it. The survey focuses on the Lahore heartland and is based in three National Assembly constituencies. Not surprisingly, it finds that 64.9 percent of voters tend to be concerned most about purchasing power, with 36 percent and 32 percent prioritising corruption and employment, respectively. Interestingly, the survey concludes that while voters don’t necessarily consider the PML-N leadership to be honest — they do, however, believe that the party has delivered on some fronts, while trusting it to lead Pakistan into the comity of developed nations.

The researchers are at pains to point out that their findings should not be taken as representative of a larger area, confined as they were to PML- N strongholds in a city that has been the recipient of the ruling party’s largesse. It’s a bit hard to explain, therefore, why they would go through the trouble and expense of carrying out a survey of 2,127 households across such a small area. A sample size that could have been rendered representative on a nationwide scale, with some tweaking, would surely have yielded more comprehensive results. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics has in the past carried out income and expenditure surveys for the whole country on a sample of 5,000 households. The researchers are amongst the most respected in their field, so one would assume that they had good reasons for choosing their sample thus — time and money may have been major considerations. Nevertheless, a survey in three contiguous urban locations in a relatively secure city with relatively low poverty rates does not lend itself to extrapolation. What it does do is provide some interesting insights into how the electorate in an urban setting thinks about its leadership. For this columnist, the striking thing in the survey findings was not so much that the citizens were concerned about economic issues as the fact that they were less concerned about issues on which their elected representatives could be directly held accountable.

It takes prior knowledge to hold a government accountable for policies controlling inflation or otherwise, but anyone can see if their children’s school is failing to provide adequate facilities. Ditto when it comes to deliverance of public health services. Yet, less than a quarter of respondents mentioned these as issues of urgent concern. Only a fifth were concerned about water supply, which is an essential municipal function sorely lacking across cities. Only 10 percent thought their sewerage systems were worth complaining about.

Is this because Lahore is exceptionally well serviced? Probably not. A more likely explanation is that people have stopped relying on the government to provide these fundamentals. Instead they are opting to essentially fend for themselves either through the private sector or through non-profit and charity organisations. Providing basic services is simply not seen as the government’s prime responsibility. The elected representatives thus get a clean chit on this count, and have, at least in urban areas, been absolved of all responsibility. This is deeply disappointing and an example of how neo-liberalism has distorted the very nature of the social contract in developing countries.

On a concluding note, commentaries on the report have focused on how corruption is less of an issue for voters than earning a livelihood and maintaining a decent standard of living. The corollary seems to be that the PTI is on the wrong track altogether. It does seem that the party should rethink its strategy and pivot away from highlighting the corruption of its opponents, to its own achievements in providing essential services, and generating employment, if any. If the experience of the last few elections shows anything, it is that negative campaigns rarely work.

The writer is an economist and policy analyst based in Islamabad