Daily Times

Having referred to his own country as foolish and its leaders as fools, Donald Trump has accused Pakistan of giving the US “nothing but lies and deceit” despite having received$33 billion in aid from the US in the last 15 years. With accusation of providing safe heavens to terrorists, a suffix of ‘no more’ was also added. In the back drop of over 75000 human causalities in last 15 years, financial losses amounting to billions in addition to extensive damage to Pakistan’s social fibre, the US president has clearly refuted and insulted Pakistan.

The most unfortunate aspect is the linkage established by US president between financial aid or assistance and the war on terror. Since 1951, when the US began providing military aid and economic assistance to Pakistan, it has obligated nearly $72 billion to Pakistan till December 2017. This assistance or aid has varied as per the US’ shifting geopolitical interests. The bulk of the aid has been in the security domain while economic related assistance amounts to only 33 percent of the total aid. There are contradictory claims from both sides with regard to the actual amount and its category.  A report presented recently to Congress reveals that Pakistan received a total of $25.91 billion from the US in terms of military and economic aid since September 11, 2001. More importantly, the U.S. currently had planned a total of $345million in aid for 2018 which is slightly less than the amount for 2017 and a marked a reduction on the four years prior to that.

With over 16 years of military involvement in Afghanistan after 9/11, and having spent hundreds of billions, Pakistan got $33 billion which is less than two percent of the total expenditure made by the US. Is money the issue or is something else is at stake in Afghanistan? Whatever the issue, it should be taken as a difficult situation for Pakistan internationally and must be viewed seriously. The US president has the technical ability, and more importantly the mind set for a ‘knee jerk action’. The monkey is holding a match box and knows how to spark the flame. It is in our national interest to avoid him and not respond in a manner which annoys him. Pakistan must act wisely and maturely. Possible practical manifestation of this mind set indicates five possible scenarios. This is an outpouring which will not manifest decisively in the US policy domain in the longer run. Secondly, the US having synchronized its non-kinetic effort with India, puts a gradual but consistent pressure on Pakistan in security, trade and other related aspects. Having commenced with suspension of $225 million in military aid and the suspension of security cooperation, it continues till it wins a favourable situation in Afghanistan versus the Taliban. Thirdly, in addition to economic and diplomatic muscle with a degree of unpredictability, the US resorts to regulated drone strikes in perceived safe havens of the Taliban and the ‘Haqqani’ network along or near vicinity of border. The US may even extend the range of operations to the settled areas of Balochistan and KP with varying intensity. Four! The US executes Abbottabad-like operations to embarrass Pakistan and prove its point of view to the world. Five! Although least likely but doable for US are drone strikes reinforced by hot pursuit operations.

With over 16 years of military involvement in Afghanistan after 9/11, and having spent hundreds of billions, Pakistan got $33 billion which is less than two percent of the total expenditure made by the US

There are two fundamental realities which underpin US-Pakistan relations. First, there are no financial or geo-political interests which are common neither there is any historic, religious or cultural linkage between two countries. Both have a kind of relationship centred along security concerns. Second! US-Pakistan relations are further complicated because of clashing security interests, especially vis-à-vis the regional security canvas being enforced in the region by US. We already stand sidelined prior to this tweet is another reality which need to be understood. It will allow us to draw realistic response option and prevent being embarrassed publically as was case after US raid in Abbottabad. Role of Pakistan as a mediator or broker of a political deal between Kabul and the Afghan Taliban is a story of the past. US has already taken a solo flight which is fueled and operated by India and present Afghan government is yet another reality. US can use Pakistan at the time of her need but we can’t be her friend is yet another ground reality. We can be a collaborator or at max a contractor or a facilitator.

Is it only the issue of those few terrorists which seek safe havens in Pakistan or actual problem is different. As we step into 2018, Taliban control at least 40 percent of Afghanistan effectively while lose control exists on another five to 20 percent areas.  Taliban’s area ground as well as political and ancient reality but in South Asia it runs tangent to US interests. The logic of political reality and recognition of such reality applied while declaring Jerusalem as capital of Israel needs to be considered in Afghanistan also. Most ironically, Pakistan is not in a real position even to alter this ground reality. If US with all its might as super power couldn’t, how could Pakistan? A rethinking is needed rather than reinforcing the failure in Afghanistan. Pakistan purely on the basis of its undeniable human sacrifices has right for its fair recognition before moving forward. US has suspended its security cooperation with Pakistan. We should have been proactive and announced a total freeze as a protest. There is a need for new rules of engagement. In case of any knee jerk action, its kind, intensity, impact, and our response must be deliberated and calibrated. An immediate but meaningful strategic messaging must be considered while simultaneously, serious efforts should be made to engage US to bring home own point of view. What could not been achieved in last 16 actively engaged years will not be achieved soon. There are no quick diplomatic or security fixes.

The writer is a PhD scholar with diverse experience and international exposure. He possesses conscious knowledge about phenomenon of terrorism and extremism coupled with realistic understanding of geo political, social and security environment

Published in Daily Times, January 8^th 2018.