Daily Times

The new emerging strategic alliances among the erstwhile strange bedfellows do not bode well for world peace, particularly for South Asia. Reposed in this collusion is the capacity to turn this geographical ambit into a battlefield of great game of warm war that potentially will not be similar to the previous cold one.

Russia, Pakistan and China are getting closer and reportedly may forge an alliance to dislodge the United States from the region by employing the Afghan Taliban as a proxy force.

To fight the allegedly perceived threat, Russia is adopting the idiomatic approach ‘to cut diamond with a diamond’ by announcing her support for the Afghan Taliban.

The question is does Russia believe that history repeats itself? Moreover, is Russia hoping that Pakistan’s hands on experience of the Afghan proxy war, serving as a strategic value addition, makes the United States taste its own medicine? If such is the case, it is better for Russia and its allies to think twice before formulating their strategy. History might repeat itself but not necessarily in a circle. It can also be in a spiral position.

Logically speaking, Russia and China should not play such wars close to their geographical borders. There can be a possible spill over with a potential of destabilising their border regions, a definitive difference separating contemporary ground realities from the politics of containment of the 1980s.

Long before the Afghan war, the US and its allies succeeded to paint the former Soviet Union as an evil, godless empire by employing relentless propaganda.

Currently, religious extremism, which Russia is trying to rope in by announcing support for the Afghan Taliban is already carrying the same image of an evil terrorist band not only in the West but also in the public opinion in Afghanistan and Pakistan where the proxy war would be waged, yet again. Taliban no longer enjoy the stature of the holy warriors and the US and its allies have the edge of feigning to fight both Daesh and Taliban.

Therefore, this denies Russia a high moral ground in the field of media and propaganda by siding with a proxy that lost its face even in the eyes of common people. It cannot declare the US, at least technically, an aggressor and an occupant force, as Russia itself was part of the Resolution 1368 of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that supported military action against the Taliban regime. Legally, the US and NATO forces presence in Afghanistan is not a unilateral action like that of the former Soviet Union in the late 1970s. Therefore, on this account there is less likelihood that Russia can turn the tables.

Though, the thaw between China and the US played a great role in changing the course of the Cold War and emerged as major beneficiaries of the détente. The West provided China the opportunity to focus on its military and economic development through direct and indirect access to western economies. However, it is not clear how much risk China will be undertaking insofar as its political and economic stability is concerned in partaking of the interventionist global politics. Taking preponderance over the rest is the matter of how much Russian and Chinese interests converge and how compliant is Russia to ‘concede’ China the space of global power in the region. Considering the Cold War era mistrust between them, a significant aspect of the Sino-Russian aberrant camaraderie is how China will adjust to a revived Russia as a global power.

So far only Iran has hinted to be part of the Russian, Pakistan and Chinese alliance. But given the current irritants and mistrust in relations with Pakistan and its role in the Saudi-led alliance, Iran is forced to play its cards carefully. Iran’s cordial relations with India, a strategic partner of the US, might caution it further in taking any strategic decision regarding the Russia-led alliance for the Afghan theatre.

Russia might be in a revisionist mode to expand its sphere of influence in Europe, the Middle East and South Asia by challenging the West in the Middle East by directly supporting Syrian regime and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Similarly, China would prefer to overstretch US’ power to truncate its containment strategy.

But the point is what does Pakistan basically want to achieve from this new alliance? The Cold War military alliances and their economic and military windfalls could not turn Pakistan into an economic power. It did not award us Kashmir nor furnish Afghanistan as a backyard; in fact it only managed to maintain our economic subsistence. We paid a huge price, socially and politically for our previous roles. Consequently, our polity has become increasingly polarised with shrinking space for democratic norms. The alliance with authoritarian states like Russia and China and perpetuation of the security state paradigm will further tempt the state to choke dissenting voices. Perhaps, independent public opinion might not approve this.

The victory of the West against the former Soviet Union was not because of its military and economic might, but the greatest leverage was its internal political stability with democratic and responsive governing system which was absent in the Soviet Union.

Instead of a rental role, Pakistan should balance its priorities and search for its survival and prosperity through peaceful co-existence and opt for a democratic and progressive polity to sail through the emerging global chaos.

The writer is a political analyst. He can be reached at talimand.khan@gmail.com and tweets @MirSwat