Daily Times

Another orbit around the sun and 2017 comes to an end. It was quite an eventful year, but then which year is not? However, rise of the alt-right gave it a tinge of danger. Brexit raised eye-brows. Panama Papers wrenched some guts. Finally, Trump’s win served as an unpleasant surprise. As we stand on the rim of 2018, the noise is greater than ever. Embarking on an endeavour, a ‘quest express’, to visit the world and see the driving forces, the dominant factors, the pressing issues that will shape next year, won’t be a boring ride.

Technologically, distances might shrink exponentially as an influx of transportation projects ranging from Elon Musk’s Hyperloop to China’s Supersonic trains are expected. Sophia became the first robot to be granted citizenship (ironically of Saudi Arabia); an AI chat boy in Japan followed the suit, insinuating breakthroughs in Artificial Intelligence and robotics. A report by McKinsey & Co, heralded the extinction of 800 million jobs by 2030.

We will also see people gung-ho for this digital invest mania in crypto currencies. One of the biggest questions of 2018 will be whether the bubble will burst? Moreover, electric vehicles will draw a lot of attention. In the same vein, climate change too will remain the topic of discussion. This leads us to renewables. China is leading the way by investing the most in renewable/unconventional energy resources. The question of using fossil fuels in regards to its relevancy will make headlines. From the technological realm, we can make a stop in United States of America. As its ‘global standing plummets’, the US is not going to fade away into insignificance anytime soon. The economy is at the strongest point. The trend is expected to carry on given the Tax Reform Bill. However, there will be a concern: Will the US economy overheat?

Federal Reserve Bank of America will be in limelight as its hawkish tone unnerved many investors when it announced its plan to increase interest rates three times in 2018. The US position in the world will be frequently debated as Trump is expected to continue with his trend in committing diplomatic gaucheries. The latest was recognising Jerusalem. There are voices cautioning a Minsky moment and that a recession is impending.

North Korea achieved a lot during 2017 and in doing so it drew angst from across the globe. It made headlines for its nuclear bombs, hydrogen bombs, and inter-continental ballistic missiles

South of the US we have the Latin Americans. Brazil will be in news as the corruption purge continues there. Venezuela, its debt and dangerous tactics, as it continues to challenge the US economic dominancy, will have the whole world’s eyes on it. Argentina is stretching its limbs to become more active at world stage. President Marci is tinkering with some economic reforms. Prospects for Chile are to be weighed under the new billionaire President.

Europe’s politics is a bubble with change in trends and shifts in positions. After Brexit, now the two year long divorce process is underway. The world will be curious to know about a hard or soft exit and whether the decision was right or not.

France saw a fierce competition between the rightist Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, with the latter emerging as a clear winner. All eyes are on France now. It faces policy challenges. Unemployment is high, so are the debts. Mr Macron can look forward to a busy year ahead. Germany’s economy and politics is both a major concern. Its exports are suffering as both China and Russia, one of largest merging markets, have shifted down gears.

There is much confusion at the political front. Italians are not much happy with the government. Elections in next year will be a test for the Union that whether the glue can withstand the heat of anger from populists. Some observers can see fissures appearing in the EU edifice. The populist wave has not receded. The world observes closely what happens to the largest trading bloc in the world.

Middle-East (ME) has never been quiet. There is nothing left to destroy in Syria and Iraq either. We can hope that the atrocities and crimes against humanity will stop. The Kurds will stay in limelight. The most significant event will be that of the Saudi economic overhaul, as Muhammad Bin Salman wishes to wean the country off oil and diversify the economy. But challenges are umpteen. Moreover, alliances might shift at a blurring speed.

Russia and Saudi Arabia might not agree politically in ME but as oil prices continue to be pressurised, both are cooperating and will continue to do so in the coming year. The gauntlet for oil prices is to hold the Vienna accord together. However, Russia might want an exit this June. The war in Yemen and rivalry with Iran might exacerbate as MbS lean towards the West.

In South Asia, Pakistan will see General Elections in July 2018. Yes, the banal and iterative sloganeering. Nawaz league’s vote bank might shrink as their incursion into the no-go area of religiosity has resulted in a few defectors. That being said, their position remains strong. Economically, CPEC will continue to shape the narrative. Pakistan rupee will be under pressure due to three reasons: election, pressures from IMF and international value of dollar.

The US is not happy with CPEC, hence IMF might exploit the position as the country supplicate it for aid. While PSX will not be able to beat its 46 per cent of staggering return, matters might ameliorate in the coming year as the dust (of political uncertainty) starts to settle.  India’s growth rate soared and then receded. There are impending elections. Modi’s got work to do. Afghanistan, unfortunately, will continue being a quandary. Whilst thinking of the future, one cannot ignore China. As the US faces international criticism courtesy its president, China continues to open up and become more vocal in world affairs. It is in the process of forging a new world order.

The recent quinquennial 19th Communist Party congress was one of the most important political developments of 2017. President Xi became the strongest, most influential president in Chinese history after Mao Zedong. His three and a half hour speech clearly dictated China’s ambitious plans for posterity.

North Korea achieved a lot during 2017 even though in doing so it drew angst from the globe. Its nuclear bombs, hydrogen bombs and inter-continental ballistic missiles made news. After checking these items off the list, it will be logical fallacy to talk about denuclearisation of DPRK. As the UN slapped more sanctions on the hermit kingdom, we can expect (or hope) that leaders at both the sides begin to talk around some sensible lines.

The next year will be as boisterous as before, or perhaps even more. There is no end of history. Cessation of hostilities in Kashmir, Syria and Palestine along with alleviation in the plight of refugees can make 2018 a better year. Attacks in West, be them a fanatic crashing wagon in a crowd of people or a mad man showering bullets on innocents, need to stop. Thawing of the US and North Korean relationship for the betterment of the whole world and evasion of a recession is also needed.

The writer is a student of International Relations with interest in International Political Economy. He can be reached at osamarizvi10@hotmail.com

Published in Daily Times, January 1^st 2018.