Daily Times

Australia’s recent white paper on foreign policy has highlighted the shifting balance of power in the Indo Pacific/Asia Pacific region away from the United States. The US ruled the waves and still does in some ways with its large and powerful navy. But now China increasingly insists that much of South China Sea and the islands spawning it are its sovereign territory. It has set up military facilities and structures to forewarn that it will defend any attempt to challenge this new regional order.

And this is happening at a time when the US power is waning, further compounded by confusion and uncertainty under President Trump whose rhetoric on China, during presidential election, foresaw tense times ahead.  As President, though, Trump has toned down his rhetoric on China. One important reason for this is seeking China’s help to discipline North Korea’s dictator, Kim Jung-un, into abandoning his nuclear weapons.

In any case, the shifting power balance is causing serious concern in Australia, which has depended on US security umbrella since WW11. This concern is stated bluntly in the white paper which says, “Navigating the decade ahead will be hard because as China’s power grows, our region is changing in ways without precedent in Australia’s modern history.”

As one commentator here puts it, “Australia is a country worried about a future under a mighty and demanding China, and afraid American leadership has already checked out.” At its worst, Hugh White, a defence analyst writing in Quarterly Essay, an Australian journal, says: “How the contest [between the US and China] will proceed, whether peacefully or violently, quickly or slowly, is still uncertain. But the most likely outcome is now becoming clear. America will lose, and China will win. America will cease to play a major strategic role in Asia, and China will take its place as the dominant power.”

What are Australia’s choices? According to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, in his introduction to the white paper, “Australia must be sovereign not reliant.” But how do you do that when as, Turnbull said recently that the US and Australia are joined at the hip in their security partnership? One way is, as Catherine McGregor writes in her column in the Sydney Morning Herald, “It may be time to consider theatre missile defence and even nuclear missiles for our submarine fleet. The regional balance is shifting rapidly….” But that takes time and resources.

The Chinese government has criticised Australia for making ‘irresponsible’ remarks about Chinese island building in the South China Sea, like expressing concern at the ‘unprecedented pace and scale’ of China’s activities in the region crucial for shipping

Another is to create a balancing regional group of like-minded nations. As Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said, “What we are seeking to do is to balance against bad behavior [from China]. The key is a rules-based order. We urge China to defend and strengthen that order.”  Because, “It is the rules-based order that helped China’s rise, and it can help other countries to rise too.” And: “Among the like-minded democracies are the US, Japan, India and Australia. Another balancing group would be the 10-nation Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). “

It is not so neat, though. For instance, some of the ASEAN countries have made their peace with China, especially as the United States doesn’t seem as committed to maintaining its primacy and dominance. That leaves the US, Australia and Japan in a counterbalancing role as India would like to keep its options open. But as Sydney Morning Herald columnist, Peter Hartcher, writes, highlighting Australia’s predicament, “…the US cannot be relied upon to protect the regional order. It [Australia] doesn’t envisage an Indo-Pacific region without America. But it implicitly accepts that the region has already lost American leadership.”

Australia hopes to persuade China towards maintaining regional stability and not push its territorial and sovereign claims in South China Sea. At the same time, it is committed to supporting, in every possible way, America’ continued commitment to regional security. That is the problem.

China does not regard Australia as a disinterested party, being part of the US alliance system. The Chinese government has criticised Australia for making ‘irresponsible’ remarks about Chinese island building in the South China Sea, like expressing concern at the ‘unprecedented pace and scale’ of China’s activities in the region crucial for shipping. And within Australia, China is attempting, as Sydney Morning Herald editorialised, “through control of Chinese-language media in Australia, to keep local populations of Chinese background loyal to its political program and ignorant of alternatives”, thus arousing ‘understandable suspicion.’

Australia will increasingly find it difficult to reconcile its primary security relationship with the US and China as its largest trading partner. And Beijing keeps reminding Australia of China’s primacy as a trading partner. A recent Chinese official commentary said, “China continues to maintain its position as Australia’s largest trading partner, the largest export destination and the largest source of imports.” Australia is thus on notice that China has considerable leverage, even as Australia sets forth its foreign policy white paper.

The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney. He can be reached at sushilpseth@yahoo.co.au

Published in Daily Times, December 30th 2017.