Daily Times

The religious vote bank which was once boasted by the Sharif’s as political leverage in elections, is crumbling fast. Credit goes to Sharifs’ hardcore team for inflaming religious crisis on the issue of finality of Prophethood. Though controversial amended sections are reversed but damage is done. Bruised religious sentiments will cost Sharifs in the 2018 polls.

Noticeable voters, particularly those associated with various religious seminaries and shrines, are not in the mood to stay loyal to the PML-N. Disgruntled over the Punjab government’s refusal to fulfill the demand of firing Punjab Law Minister Rana Sana Ullah, fresh Faizabad-styled riots are in the offing.

After 20-days of Faizabad turbulence led by Khadim Hussain Rizvi, head of the Tehreek Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah (TLYR) that ended with the resignation of Federal law minister Zahid Hamid, it appears that new moment led by Pir Hamid-u-din Sialvi, spiritual leader of shrine of Sial Sharif will be the tipping point that will set the tone of declining popularity graph of Sharifs in the eyes of voters.

Throughout its rule in 1990, 1997 and now 2013, the party’s main leaders kept parleying with defunct sectarian Islamist organisations including
Sipha-e-Sahaba, Jaish-e-Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Jamat ud Dawa

Worse mishandling, politically and administratively, on the sensitive issue sparked a massive hate wave against the Sharifs’ government. Religious groups and parties that have formal and informal alliances with the PML-N spewed venom on the clumsy measures and verbally thrashed rulers and their accomplices. The majority of the masses which the PML-N flaunts as its power are preparing to come out of their homes to lash out against the government for its anti-Islam demeanor in the leadership of Sialvi.

Adding fuel to fire, the seriousness of resignations by PML-N MNAs, MPAs and councilors deepened the mayhem. MPA Sahibzada Ghulam Nizamuddin Sialwi resigned, MNA Sheikh Waqas Akram threatened to part ways. Two PML-N legislators from Vehari and Khushab Tahir Iqbal Chaudhry and Waris Kalu also announced that they were done with the party. According to the news, 20 PML-N parliamentarians are about to quit.

PML-N has mostly pivoted on the Barelvi sect of Muslims that constitutes the major proportion of the Muslim population in Punjab. Jamiat Ulema Pakistan, Jamat-e-Ahle Hadith, Sunni Itehad Council, Jamia Naeemia and Golra Sharif have been allies of the party over the last many years.

Regarding the Faizabad fiasco, most workers and leaders from the Barelvi school of thought vehemently denounced the government.

Realising the political worth of the religious vote bank and keeping them intact in their respective constituencies, electable have been hobnobbing with local leadership of religious spiritual leaders and clerics. Given the changing scenario, voters of religious parties who proved their allegiance with Sharifs even in the Panama verdict and their trial in NAB courts, are losing faith in them after the Faizabad turbulence.

Now they are more provoked on government’s failure for not making Rana Sana Ullah resign over his controversial remarks. They held Nawaz Sharif and his managers responsible for criminally amending blasphemy law, coercing TLYR to stage sit-in, ganging up against protestors and finally paving way for another debacle in Punjab.

The entire situation following the Faizabad fiasco has left us guessing about how a right-wing party may hurt its right-wing vote base through consecutive blunders, particularly at the critical juncture when the party has been embattled on different fronts.

The answer lies in developments within the ranks of party since its inception. Basically, the PML-N has its roots in functional Muslim league which came into being with mergence of convention and council leagues in 1973. It became part of an alliance clouded by religious image which was known as the Pakistan National Alliance in the 1977 elections. Under the umbrella of Ziaul Haq it held the banner of Islam and Shariat. In the 1988 election, the PML partnered with the right-wing nine-party alliance the Islami Jamhoori Ittihad (IJI). With a religious interface, it changed into PML-N. Throughout its rule in 1990, 1997 and now 2013, the party’s main leaders kept parleying with defunct sectarian Islamist organisations including Sipha-e-Sahaba, Jaish-e-Muhammad, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Jamatud Dawa.

Nawaz’s religious clout impressed all when Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) put the conditions for peace talks if three politicians acted as guarantors in February 2013. PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif was on the list, beside Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman and then Jamaat-e-Islami ameer Syed Munawar Hasan.

Meanwhile in order to get rid of party’s religious image proving itself to be moderate and semi-liberal, a strong group in the PML-N succeeded in convincing Nawaz Sharif to act against religious extremists. Efforts came to fruition when Mumtaz Qadri, killer of Punjab governor Salman Taseer, was hanged despite threats of a fierce reaction. Jamat ud Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed had to be put in house arrest. The process of mainstreaming the TTP was aborted. Stringent action was taken against the outlawed SSP. Under the National Action Plan (NAP), an initiative was made to regulate madaris (religious seminaries).

Now PML-N has technically split between right-wing group and liberal group. The TLYR anarchy and Sialvi-led drive stemmed from the internal ongoing conflicts between these two factions that have been trying-led drive to create their own spaces in the party. Anyhow their dispute has been causing dent to religious vote bank for the party. This damage will take a heavy toll in the elections, if they are held in 2018.

The writer is a senior journalist working for China Radio International Online, China Plus. He also writes for local and international print media. He is a fellow of ICFJ and a recipient of China friendly Netizen 2017 award. He can be reached at yaseerkhan@hotmail.com and tweets at @yasirkhann

Published in Daily Times, December 12^th 2017.