Daily Times

Pakistan has now reached a stage where a national institution which is commonly referred to as ‘the establishment’, which is constitutionally responsible for protecting our territorial integrity and fighting a bloody war against terrorism is being criticised throughout the country both covertly and overtly.

Keeping in view the timeframe of the forthcoming elections, this trend is likely to grow in the foreseeable future. This campaign is being lead by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Arguments for and against the establishment are being voiced in open discussions in both public and private gatherings. Should a census or pulse report be organised so that the popularity of the establishment can be gauged? What is the relative rating and importance of constitutional provisions and the national interest? Are there any legal, constitutional or situational grounds where the establishments extra-constitutional role can be justified?

The score between the incumbent government and the establishment stand settled following the ‘Panama Leaks’, before which the ‘Dawn Leaks’ and ‘Tweets episode’ had occurred. Realistically speaking, it is beyond the capability of the establishment to create such opportunities. The ISI has always honestly and efficiently implemented the orders of the Supreme Court, which is a part if it’s professional responsibilities. The other two options the ISI Chief had were to remain silent or oblivious, which amount to professional dishonesty. Asking the DG ISI to hide facts was never an option, not if someone understands the inner workings of the institution anyway. The fact is that the validity of these proofs stand at over 90 percent at any international court of law. Nawaz might have expected or desired that the establishment delay the revelation of facts, or to keep them hidden. Whatever the case may be, the establishment must now achieve a clean break and let the political system mature through its natural cycle.

In the aftermath of Nawaz’s disqualification, there is an impression that the establishment has decided to ensure the PML-N’s political exit. This will be done through the exploitation and manipulations of splits and divisions within the party and desertions from it. Thus the establishment will be able to engineer the political scene for the 2018 elections.

Some signs were witnessed recently when the PSP and MQM leadership openly admitted that the establishment had been involved in affairs which were not related to national defence. If this is true, it is detrimental to the growth of democratic values. On a lighter note, if this is true it also warrants accountability from within for not being able to manage an alliance for such a short period of time. Can such an establishment be trusted to give us a sound political system?

The fact remains that an arranged political arrangement has not worked in Pakistan for the last four decades. This time around, the establishment must understand that the tree of judicial activism planted in 2007 has started bearing fruit. The media is also here to stay now and most importantly, nine years of continuous democratic role has gained some strength despite all its weaknesses and drawbacks.

It is also a question of capability rather than intention. In the absence of a functional middle and lower tier political intelligence mechanism in the last eight years, can this task be accomplished by the higher tier? The Kiyani model of intelligence functioning in this domain was an utter failure. What is the degree of difficulty and what risks will the establishment have to take? What are the chances of success and what will the impact be if the establishment fails? We need to realise that a half success is worse than a failure in this arena. Even an apparently complete success may become an embarrassment, like the recently concluded agreement on the Faizabad dharna under the direct supervision and guarantee of the establishment’s higher tiers. I think the establishment recognises the severe negative implications.

Any effort to engineer this political system is likely to slow down and may derail the consolidation process. Four years of effort by the Sindh Rangers have brought some semblance of peace to Karachi, the establishment must allow the ‘Muhajir Factor’ to die its natural death. May it be another election away where from within or outside MQM a political process takes charge of Karachi rather than engineering Karachi politics which will only be a patch work solution. We need to give it time while continuing our mandate in the domain of peace and security with zero tolerance or bias or interest. More importantly, if five years of PPP lead by Asif Ali Zardari were amongst the worst eras in the history of Pakistan and 10 years of PPP in Sindh are worse in terms of governance and development, then having any soft corner for the PPP in a bid to tackle PML(N )is disastrous. Realistically weigh the matrix of capability, political reality, historic evidence, short term experience and more importantly national interest. Political dynasties; whether they be Asif Ali Zardari and son or Nawaz Sharif and family or smaller parties top tier leadership like MQM or ANP are breathing their last. The establishment would never prefer a new life in their veins by engineering a political setup. They all would have died their natural death atleast a decade before but ‘the then’ establishment by design or default gave them a new life. The establishment is likely to resist this time.

Please — reconcile on the issue of zero political interference, shed away the fear of losing relevance and institutional authority in the policy domain. Do not run tangent to the political realities of Pakistan and do not engineer politics by applying the notion of national interest. Let ‘Political System Consolidation’ take its natural course uninterrupted and uninfluenced.

The writer is a PhD scholar with diverse experience and international exposure. He possesses conscious knowledge about phenomenon of terrorism and extremism coupled with realistic understanding of geo political, social and security environment

Published in Daily Times, December 7^th 2017.