Daily Times

Ever since Pakistan tested its first nuclear weapon on May 28, 1998, doomsday prophets have predicted that South Asia could be the site for the world’s first full blown nuclear war. The entire region is home to a significant nuclear arsenal. India had conducted its first nuclear test on May 18, 1974, whereas China conducted its first test on July 29, 1964.

A recent report by the prestigious Washington think-tank, the Atlantic Council, has ruled out the possibility of nuclear war between Pakistan and India. The council based these findings on a series of seminars held in New Delhi, Islamabad and Beijing. Experts have argued that China, India and Pakistan were stakes in the existing international order, despite the complex rivalries in the region. It also goes without saying that there is a significant level of awareness about how disastrous nuclear war would be for the region. There would be no winners in such a conflict as it would result in the destruction of the entire Sub-continent, not just one country.However, experts have warned that ‘aggressive nationalism’, especially by India and China could have serious consequences which have the potential to prove the ‘worst case assumptions of nuclear pessimists’ to be true.

Surprisingly, the report stated that Pakistan, along with India and China,has had an institutional legacy of civilian control over decisions related to the nuclear programme.

This claim flies in the face of popular perception that the civilian government holds no sway over decisions related to nuclear programme in Pakistan, and that the security establishment acts on their own. It remains to be seen whether civilian influence on decisions related to nuclear arms only exist on paper or if the government’s decisions actually hold some weight on ground.

Pakistan has a number of tactical nuclear weapons in its arsenal. Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller munitions which are designed to be used on a battlefield in military situations. A significant positive observation to come out of the report is that neither of the three countries – India, Pakistan or China — have been conducting nuclear tests to develop or improve their capabilities.  *

Published in Daily Times, November 28^th 2017.