Daily Times

For the PMLN, the route to the 2018 elections is getting narrower by the day. The celebrations over Nawaz Sharif’s success in keeping his party office intact via Parliament were too short-lived as the ostensibly inexplicable refusal of PPP Co-Chairperson Asif Zardari to support the government in getting the bill allowing fresh delimitation of constituencies passed seems to have rendered the route dangerously narrower.

Zardari’s refusal to help seems inexplicable because if the elections are postponed indefinitely or delayed with an interim government in the saddle for an extended period the PPP would stand to lose as much as the PMLN, if not more.

It is possible that the PPP is just posturing; trying to regain the political space it has lost to the PTI on the opposite side of the isle by cooperating with the PMLN during the PTI’s 2014-dharna and would perhaps finally vote for the bill in the Senate on Monday.

However, being the hard-political bargainer that he is one cannot also rule out the possibility that Zardari could be looking for some political trade-off. That could be perhaps why he is trying very hard to get and refusing even to meet either of the two — Nawaz Sharif or the Prime Minister. Some of his close aides do give the impression that that is what he is looking for—a trade- off—but seem not to know what is it that he wants in return.

It is possible that with an eye on the 2018 elections Zardari could be trying to extract in the bargain from the PMLN some political space in Punjab through seat adjustments.

However, his detractors do not seem to subscribe to either the trade-off theory or that he is just posturing but insist that exploiting the mountains of the alleged skeletons in his cupboard the powers that be have pressurized Zardari not to cooperate with the PMLN government any more, thus effectively outflanking the ruling Party this time.

Being the hard-political bargainer that he is one cannot rule out the possibility that Zardari could be looking for some political trade-off. That may be why he is trying very hard to get and refusing to meet either of the two — Nawaz Sharif or the Prime Minister

On the face of it, the PMLN government has the numbers to get the bill passed by a two-third majority in the joint session. It is possible that if shove came to push the government could go for this option but only when it is the only option left because of the risks involved. The possibility of the variously predicted forward block of 90 or so PMLN members could come true at the ‘right time’ finally dismantling in the process the precariously perched government well before the Senate elections.

What is making the route to the scheduled elections even more perilously narrow for the government is the on-going dharna by protesters belonging to Tehreek-i-Khatm-i-Nabuwwat, Tehreek-i-Labaik Ya Rasool Allah (TLY) and the Sunni Tehreek Pakistan (ST) – who are calling for the sacking of Law Minister Zahid Hamid and strict action against those behind the amendment to the Khatm-i-Nabuwwat oath in the Elections Act 2017.

While being handled by the government rather prudently despite the dharna having disrupted the daily life of about two million citizens of the capital and its twin city Rawalpindi for over a fortnight costing the government as much as Rs. 120 million so far is being generally viewed, however, as the failure of a government whose attention is believed to be focused more on warding off judicial efforts to drown it in a sea of corruption charges.

Both the Supreme Court and High Court while reprimanding the protestors in the harshest terms and taking them to task for exploiting religious sentiments to make the lives of millions of people miserable have not been any less severe on the government.

In his report to the SC, the attorney general told the court that the government was erring on the side of caution because there was a risk of confrontation if action was taken against the protesters, as some of them are also armed.

Indeed, one cannot rule out the possibility of agents of Pakistan’s enemies having already infiltrated the mob with the intention of creating a real blood bath on the streets once the administration is provoked into forcibly evacuating from the Faizabad interchange the protestors whose strategically located sit -in has effectively cut off logistic links between the Army’s General Headquarters (GHQ) and the country’s capital.

Here are some pertinent remarks of the SC on the dharna:

“Tomorrow, if an enemy of the state chooses to occupy the streets of the capital, will the government try to negotiate with them?”

“No one is paying attention to the main point: all the reports reflect that the Punjab government had prior information regarding a possible sit-in and no measures were taken to stop it.”

“…if the situation is not taken under control, the country’s decisions will be taken on the streets rather than in courts.”

“…the kind of language being used by the leaders of the sit-in is not reflective of Islam.”

“Why is the media giving the sit-in so much coverage; where is the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (Pemra)?”

“Who is paying for the sit-in, who is providing the protesters food and electricity?”

Meanwhile, weighing in for the first time on the sit-in the military’s spokesperson said it would abide by the government’s decision on the matter.

In remarks released to the media on Wednesday night, Inter-Services Public Relations chief Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor said that while it would be preferable to address the situation through peaceful means, the military would abide by whatever decision the government took.

Saying that the civil and military leaderships were on the same page when it came to the country’s security, he said that the army was duty-bound to carry out the government’s instructions.

On the face of it, these responses of the courts and the Army sound highly supportive of the government. But going by the way the PMLN leadership has been attacking these institutions, one directly and the other without being named since the disqualification of the former Prime Minister, their response in the face of an emergency could go the other way with insurmountable boulders strategically placed en- route to election 2018.

The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad. He served as the Executive Editor of Express Tribune until 2014

Published in Daily Times, November 25^th 2017.