Daily Times

The United States played an instrumental role in defeating Nazi Germany and Japan in the Second World War. In the aftermath of Second World War, it was the United States which structured the contours of economic policy as well as the security plan for the entire comity of nations. For instance, the Marshall plan and the Bretton Woods system were the creation of the US to implement the policies based on capitalistic principles. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US emerged as the only super power in the newly defined uni-polar world; but this hegemony lasted for less than two decades.

At present, the US due is enmeshed in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. It has got bogged down due to these wars because of which the US is undergoing a budget deficit. These two catastrophic wars have put the US under severe financial constraint. American debt has increased manifold and with the passage of time, the clout of the US is dwindling. Contrary to this situation, Russia is exerting its influence and becoming more significant every day.

Today, the world has become multi-polar; and in this twenty-first century four states have become very vital in the international politics.

Considering the international scenario, US, China, Russia, EU and India have become extremely significant countries in global politics. Basically, a strong economy plays a crucial role in making a country a global power. At this juncture, the US is still the largest economy, and in 2016 its defence budget rose to 610 billion dollars. The US has naval bases in the entire world and it has bilateral pacts with Japan, Philippines and South Korea. The influence of the US is further bolstered by its voting power in the World Bank and IMF. Furthermore, the US is well known for its support of allies, but it has treated its adversaries ruthlessly.

It seems in the future the region is likely to become a theatre of ‘Thucydides Trap’ in which rising and established powers will fight to impose their dominance

The US has relied less on its allies after the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but it is also a reality that USA’s leverage has deteriorated after Donald Trump became the President, as he has inadequate knowledge about world affairs. Soon China will become the largest economy in the world, due to explosive economic growth rates that China has secured for the past many years, it has mustered strength and been able to increase its defence budget; India is in a similar situation.

America’s population is 325 million and by 2050 its population will increase 390 million. Immigrants have played a crucial role in making America a great nation. For example, German scientists were the pioneers of USA’s nuclear programme; and the information technology revolution in US is largely owed to the software engineers from India.  The US has succeeded in attracting the best talent, in every field, to its territory and this is one of the reasons it has the greatest share of earnings through services protected under intellectual property rights law.

After the election of Trump there is a perception amongst political experts that in the future the US is likely to face racial issues because by 2050 the Caucasian population will be fewer than those of other races. In the contemporary world, we have witnessed that only those countries have made progress which have fostered peaceful relations like Germany and Japan. At present, China is the second largest economy and soon it will overtake USA to become the largest economy in the world. Similarly, China’s defence budget is also the second largest and in 2016 it spent 15 billion dollars on its defence. China — whose rise was once predicted by Napoleon Bonaparte — has been able to create a mark on the world map. It’s increasing leverage is mainly owed to trade agreements and pacts with other nations.

It has created an economic corridor with sixty countries based on One Belt-One Road (OBOR) initiative. Regional peace and stability are crucial for the OBOR initiative; and China would prefer to work in partnership with the US, Pakistan, Russia and Iran. In 2015 and 2017, China conducted joint naval exercises with Russia at the Baltic sea. In Djibouti, located on the Horn of Africa, China has developed a naval base.

Despite such phenomenal developments, China has internal security issues. For instance, in Xinjiang as well as in Tibet, there is internal strife and China is spending heavily on its internal security systems.

After the US, China and EU, India is the fourth largest economy in the world. By 2050, India would be the most populated country in the world. Every year its defence expenditure is also increasing. In 2016, its defence expenditure was 56 billion dollars and at present the US desperately wants India to acquire modern technology to confront China.

Russia during the reign of Vladimir Putin has emerged again as a super power as it recently subdued both Ukraine and Georgia. Russia saved the regime of Bashar Al Assad from collapse. Russia majorly relies on oil and gas exports which are likely to decrease at the end of this century.

In the EU, Germany has been instrumental to bring integration amongst the EU member states. The importance of Germany can be understood by the fact that it is serious contender for becoming a permanent member of the security council. After Britain voted for the EU exit, Germany has become even more significant.

Over the past few years India has also phenomenally achieved economic growth rates. Even though there are separatist movements in the North, India remains united. The caste system and minorities especially Muslims being subjected to unequal treatment and human rights abuse in Jammu and Kashmir has been weakness of India which has marred its development. Moreover, India ranks 133 in per capita income which means that the poverty levels in India have risen to exponential heights which is a huge cause of concern. India needs to resolve its border disputes with its neighbours to concentrate its expenses on economic development.

At present the major chunk of its budget is allocated to defence. The US is supporting India to play a greater role in Afghanistan and in the future, and we are likely to see them assisting the Afghan government in building infrastructure. It seems in the future the region is likely to become a theatre of ‘Thucydides Trap’ in which rising and established powers fight to impose their dominance.

By the end of this century it can be safely predicted that five countries including US, India, Germany, Russia and China would be the most significant countries and would shape international politics in the future.

The writer is a constitutional and human rights lawyer

Published in Daily Times, November 24^th 2017.