Daily Times

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is a busy man. One can almost tell by the way he walks; he has no time to talk. And who can blame him? It’s hard work, this business of regional coup making. For make no mistake. This is exactly what is happening in Saudi Arabia right now. Riyadh is manoeuvring to become king of the Middle Eastern castle while Tehran remains typecast as the dirty rascal.

Someone who may be less busy is Lebanon’s Saad Hariri. He recently flew in to Riyadh for the second time in the same week. And by the weekend — it was all over. In an unexpected move, Hariri resigned live on Saudi television from the premiership. He cited undue Iranian interference and assassination fears. And now in the latest twist in a saga that appears ready to span over many, many box sets, a pro-Hezbollah newspaper claimed that Hariri was temporarily detained in Riyadh — under house arrest, no less. Other media outlets have since reported that he has left the kingdom. Though none mentioned whether he had been put up at the Ritz Carlton or, indeed, if he were sharing a cuppa with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, who flew into the kingdom at the start of the week in what might or might not have been a similar summons.

There can be only two questions: why all this and why now?

Hariri is said to have irked the Saudis over his political ‘accommodation’ of Hezbollah. This included not calling for the disarmament of the so-called Iranian proxy, though the former Lebanese PM did term illegal all arms held by the group; despite allowing its military wing to operate alongside government forces to try and run ISIS out of town, or at least out from along the Syrian-Lebanese border. Then there is the small matter of his backing the Hezbollah candidate for president; the man who then went on to appoint Hariri PM. The irony, of course, that is lost on Riyadh is the fact that Hariri holds Saudi nationality (as well as French), which naturally begs the question: whose proxy? Nevertheless, Hariri’s ‘removal’ from the Lebanese political scene, according to Middle East watchers, has effectively de-legitimised Hezbollah in terms of governance. But yet again, if it is true that the Saudis forced Hariri to quit — it again becomes all a bit like the pot-like and blackened kettle black and other well-worn clichés. Be that as it may, the upshot of all this is that it risks the chance of Israeli aggression; a move that would likely be welcomed by Riyadh as further encirclement of Shia Iran. Yet if Tel Aviv were to strike, it would do so only if it had complete confidence of a coalition of willing Arab Sunni regimes.

Pundits question why Riyadh is in such a rush. Especially given that Donald Trump had over the summer upped the anti-Iran rhetoric. Yet he appears too distracted by the Afghan quagmire. Besides the Crown Prince hasn’t gone to all this trouble of consolidating power at home just to sit around and wait for the apprentice-president to get ‘tweet-tough’ on Tehran

Some pundits have questioned why the Crown Prince, who for the last year has had the final say on the kingdom’s military, economic, political and social policies, is in such a rush. Especially given that the unquiet American President had over the summer upped the anti-Iran rhetoric. Yet as far as Riyadh may be concerned — Donald Trump has thus far proved himself a man who promises big but falls far short when it comes to delivering the goods. Plus he is currently distracted by the Afghan quagmire that he inherited and now is seemingly reluctant to exit. Though even there, Iran is now being accused by NATO of arming Afghan insurgents. Yet this is not enough for the Crown Prince. He hasn’t gone to all this trouble of consolidating power at home to ensure a smooth ascension to the throne just to sit around and wait for the apprentice-president to get ‘tweet-tough’ on Iran.

That Saudi Arabia is taking matters into its own hands suggest one thing and one thing only: that Syria’s Assad is going nowhere. Which is another way of saying that Russia, Iran and Hezbollah have won that war. This is something that has already put Tel Aviv on the back-foot; with the Iranians said to be establishing a presence near the Israeli border. Then there is the war in Yemen that is of the Saudis’ own making. After two long years, they are nowhere near to defeating the Houthi rebels. Indeed, over the weekend, Riyadh said that the cross-border launching of a ballistic missile from Yemen had Iranian finger prints all over it; while terming this an act of war.

As far as Mahmoud Abbas’ visit to the kingdom goes — it is no coincidence that he rushed there straight from Egypt where he had been talking Israeli-Palestinian peace. Though, interestingly, not before pledging support to Saudi Arabia in the wake of the Houthi attack. Naturally, Mr Abbas has been around the Middle Eastern block long enough to know how irked Riyadh is over the recently formed Palestinian unity government, which includes that other regional nemesis: Hamas. And it was none other than Egypt’s al-Sisi who was mediating between the different Palestinian factions. Which may or may not be linked to his very recent announcement that he will honour the country’s constitution by not seeking a third term.

Whether or not Trump Town saw this coming is still up for debate. But the man sitting in the White House is backing his oil-rich Saudi friends all the way. He tweeted it – so it must be true. Facepalm.

The writer is the Deputy Managing Editor, Daily Times. She can be reached at mirandahusain@me.com and tweets @humeiwei

Published in Daily Times, November 8^th 2017.