Daily Times

The timing for Pakistan couldn’t be better. In a week where the US Secretary of State has handed over a list of 20 terror groups said to be operating within this country’s borders — the CIA has come to Pakistan’s defence over harbouring the world’s most wanted man.

It says that we didn’t. Or rather, it says that that we offered him no support. Which may or may not amount to the same thing. Yet as much as we like to think that we are always and forever cast as the leading protagonist when it comes to the American script for this part of the world — the truth is that the latter only has eyes for the Iranian regime, at least in terms of who it really wants to see come undone.

Thus just as there is said to be no such thing as a free lunch — the Pakistani state apparatus would do well to understand that there is no such thing as a completely clean American chit. There will be payback, if not blowback.

Of the 470,000 files released by the CIA this week, as part of the stolen treasure trove that was picked up during the American raid on Osama Bin Laden’s Abbottabad compound, much of the US media is naturally focusing on evidence of ties between the late Al Qaeda chief and the Tehran government.

These allegations aren’t anything new. This is despite the fact that in the immediate 9/11 aftermath Iran handed over to the UN details of some 300 Al Qaeda operatives that had passed over into its territory. Not only that, the country also reportedly granted the US the opportunity to interrogate some of those held. Yet such moves aimed at seeking broader ties with the Americans were not given due consideration.

Today, there is a feeling within certain Iranian circles that the whole intelligence dump is nothing more than an orchestrated move; perhaps as a diversionary tactic of some sort. After all, Putin was in the Iranian capital just this week; and top of the agenda was how to isolate the US in the Middle East. And then, also this week, our COAS invited the Iranian Ambassador over to GHQ. It is likely that talk soon turned to the Islamic Military Alliance, which Tehran views as an anti-Shia fighting machine. This is to say nothing of the Trump warmongering against Iran reaching near fever-pitch. Already has the US President de-certified the nuclear pact, thereby undermining the IAEA that has clearly and repeatedly said that Tehran is playing by the nuclear rulebook. Also this week has seen the Trump administration go before the Senate to make a case for the non-curtailing of its war powers authority that provides ‘guidelines’ for the use of American military force around the world.

Putin is increasingly recasting himself in the role of the Man Who Can in the Middle East. While China is playing the long game when it comes to unseating the US from South Asia. Pakistan, seemingly, is the one that has the most to lose from not kowtowing to US diktats. And this is something that Washington is not letting it forget. Not least of all by way of the unsaid threat of seeking to destabilise Iran’s eastern border with Pakistan. This would leave us encircled by three unresolved boundary lines, giving the Americans even greater reason to stay put

This hasn’t escaped the notice of the Iranians. They point out that if there were any credible evidence of material support from Iran to Bin Laden — the US would have disclosed it well before now. They also note that the CIA dump comes in the wake of this summer’s moves by the spy agency to expand powers to its spooks in the field; to bring them in out from the cold, as it were. Of course at the time it was reported that China poses a greater threat to Washington than traditional Cold War foe Russia. It was also said that the agency was mulling over possible covert action operations against the North Korean Rocket Man. There were, however, also murmurings from certain quarters suggesting that Pakistan’s nukes remain the greater threat. Thus Islamabad is in a rather vulnerable position. It already faces the real risk of sanctions or worse if it doesn’t secure the Afghan quagmire.

Thus according to Iranian sources, the Americans are well  aware of how the latter’s traditional allies aren’t threatened by the tough talk from the Big Boys of Trump Town. Putin is increasingly recasting himself in the role of the Man Who Can in the Middle East, with everyone from Iran to Saudi Arabia to Israel seeking his counsel. And as far as China is concerned, it is playing the long game when it comes to usurping the US from its hitherto position of regional hegemony here in South Asia. Pakistan, seemingly, is the one that has the most to lose from not kowtowing to US diktats. And this is something that Washington is not letting it forget. Not least of all by way of the unsaid threat of seeking to destabilise Iran’s eastern border with Pakistan. Which would leave this country encircled by three unresolved boundary lines; all of which would simply give the Americans even greater reason to stay.

Thus the alleged Iranian-Bin Laden connection isn’t what is newsworthy. What is, however, will very much  depend on which regional player will move next.

The writer is the Deputy Managing Editor, Daily Times. She can be reached at mirandahusain@me.com and tweets @humeiwei

Published in Daily Times, November 3^rd 2017.