Daily Times

The Indian government has announced that it is ready to hold talks with the Kashmiri leadership in Jammu and Kashmir. Indeed, Home Minister Rajnath Singh, confirmed that the appointment of a Special Representative to the region. Dineshwar Sharma is a former head of the Intelligence Bureau and is considered by many as a dove. He says he is willing to talk to all stakeholders, including separatists.

This is all well and good. Except that the long-held aspirations of the Kashmiri people have not changed. Meaning that all they have ever wanted is the right to self-determination as provided by the UN Security Council. Yet for the last three years Prime Narenda Modi has adopted a tough position, rejecting all dialogue with the Kashmiri leadership unless they towed New Delhi’s line. To be fair, Pakistan’s stance is equally unrelenting; but it is one that has repeatedly pointed out the need for tripartite talks for any dialogue to be meaningful and result-oriented.

Nevertheless, this apparent shift in Indian policy hasn’t just come out of the blue. For one thing, New Delhi has drawn flank from the international community over human rights abuses committed by its armed forces in the disputed territory that have killed many and blinded more than 1,000 protestors in the last year alone by firing pellet guns at them. Thus this sudden desire to want to talk could be a calculated exercise in damage control. Secondly, the offer to talk came just as the All Parties Hurriyat Conference and other separatist groups were poised to observer October 27 as a Black Day. So yet again the issue of damage control topped the Indian government’s agenda. Thirdly, it likely wanted to underscore its commitment to dialogue just as US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was readying to fly into town. Or perhaps the latter had quietly nudged Mr Modi towards the negotiating table. And then finally there is the no small matter of the Indian economy being in a veritable state of shambles. Not least due to the situation in Kashmir as well as other parts of the country, which have stymied investment; leading to a decline in economic growth.

Let this last point be our focal area of interest. There is consensus among economists that India’s economic growth has dropped from over eight percent and is now down to 5.7 percent; with this downward trajectory set to continue. Yet the Prime Minister was most bullish in his dismissal of this warranting any special attention.

After all, he was keen to point out that growth rates had fallen far harder under the previous Congress government. Nevertheless there are those who believe that the Modi government is fudging the figures, as economic growth dips have remained suspiciously constant over the last six financial quarters. Still, as these slumps continue and as some industries are shutting down and unemployment is on the rise — it is worth recalling that the Prime Minister, when hitting the election campaign trail, had vowed to provide an additional 10 million jobs year-on-year.

Today, not only has he failed to deliver this, the Indian economy is worse off than it was before he took over at the helm. Meaning that the country is no longer shinning and even Mr Modi’s halo is said to be losing its sheen. Thus things are not looking good for the BJP in terms of the 2019 elections.

Given the lack of private investment, the government is steppingup public sector funding to prop up the growth rate. Yet economists recommend aggressive tax reduction to boost interest on savings and in turn encourage the return on private sector investment. Meaning that the Reserve Bank of India can be pressured into reducing lending rates. But the banks will also cut the deposit rate, thereby discouraging savings

The situation has only been exacerbated by the demonetisation debacle of last November as well as the non-implementation of the GST. Indeed, Latha Jishnu, in her recent article — Sleepless in Indian economy — writes: “If one needed a strong pointer to the consequences one has to look no further than the industrial hub of Surat in Modi’s home state Gujarat where entrepreneurs are pulling the shutters on industry and putting their money into speculative finance.” Recent talks by respected economists and strong supporters of the present government have also stoked fears over the state of the Indian economy.

Renowned economist and politician Dr Subramanian Swamy recently pointed out that “the economy was in a tailspin and if corrective action was not taken quickly, the economy could collapse.” While this had grown at 9.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 it started slowing down through the remaining quarters of that financial year; and even more sharply in 2017, plummeting to 5.7 percent.

Most economists agree that there is a lack of private investment and the government is stepping up public sector funding in order prop up the growth rate. Those who know what they are talking about recommend aggressive tax reduction in order to boost interest on savings and in turn encourage the return of private sector investment. Economists also understand that fiscal policies are dictated largely by the market.

Meaning that the Reserve Bank of India can be pressured into reducing lending rates. The alternative is most certainly a slowdown as well a sharp rise in unemployment. Yet the problem with reducing lending rates is that the banks will also cut the deposit rate, which will discourage savings. And if taxes are reduced, the government would not have sufficient funds to purchase arms. However, the fundamental problem is that India has been rocked by right-wing Hindutva politics, and unless the BJP’s affiliated groups are reined in, the investment climate would likely not change.

Before concluding, it would be pertinent to offer a little background to the significance of October 27. It was on this day back in 1947 that Indian troops landed in the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. This, of course, was a blatant violation of the Partition Plan as well as flying in the face of the popular sentiment of the Kashmiri Muslims. Jawaharlal Nehru and Lord Mountbatten were the masterminds of what would turn out to be one of the world’s greatest human tragedies; while Hari Singh, then Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir and Cyril Radcliff, head of the Boundary Commission,were cast in the role of accomplices.

India had announced the accession of Jammu and Kashmir under the controversial Instrument of Accession. The fact remains that the latter is a Muslim-majority state; fulfilling all the conditions under the Partition Plan for the princely state to join Pakistan, keeping in view the peoples’ aspirations, culture and religion.The aforementioned plan of June 3, 1947 envisaged that over 565 princely states would join India or Pakistan on the basis of contiguity and aspirations of their people.

And still we wait.

The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at mjamil1938@hotmail.com

Published in Daily Times, October 30^th 2017.