Daily Times

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman was recently in Russia. The landmark trip ended with an agreement whereby Riyadh would buy missiles from Moscow. It is worth mentioning here that the latter is playing an instrumental role in propping up the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. Thus this bilateral defence pact was not received well by Washington, which remains wary of the rise of Russia in the Middle East and beyond. Indeed, here in South Asia, Russia — along with China — is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Moscow is also playing a pivotal role in flushing out ISIS from the region.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen just how Saudi-Russian ties will play out in the long-term. Not least because of the American elephant in the room. In fact, as soon as King Salman had left for Moscow, the US announced that it had agreed to sell to Riyadh the THAAD missile system, comprising of 360 missiles, 16 control stations and 7radars, for a cool $15 billion. Yet in an apparent backtrack of sorts, Washington offered a clarification: this was part of the mega arms package signed by the two sides during President Trump’s visit to the kingdom at the beginning of the summer. Yet timing, as they say, is everything.  There is no getting away from the fact the Saudis effectively arm twisted the Americans into coming good on THAAD by simply advertising their interest in purchasing the Russian S-400 missile defence system.

Riyadh is said to have offered important assurances to Russia on three fronts. Firstly, it would not meddle in Syria. Secondly, it would try to ease global pressure over Putin’s support for the Assad regime. Thirdly, it would back Moscow over keeping a naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus for the next half a century

The US was likely worried about an earlier visit by the Saudi intelligence chief to Moscow that took place towards the end of the summer. His meeting with President Putin is said to have lasted for around four hours. In addition, sources have confirmed that Riyadh offered important assurances to Russia on three fronts. Firstly, that it would not meddle in Syria. Secondly, it would try to ease the prevailing pressure on Putin over his support of the Assad regime. Thirdly, it would back Moscow over keeping its naval base in the Syrian city of Tartus for the next half a century. Sources have also said that this current thaw in the bilateral relationship would help stabilise international oil prices.

Russian interference in the Ukraine revolution of 2014 sparked a return the Cold War in terms of Moscow’s relations with the West. Then, the following year, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah died. By the end of 2015, Russia’s forces were involved in the Syrian conflict. Today, the West has imposed a crippling sanctions regime on Moscow, prompting a fall in oil prices. In short, Putin is presiding over a drastically weakened economy. Which explains why he and King Salman are said to be working on a mutually beneficial agreement to control input and output of oil on the international market, thereby ramping up oil prices. This is expected to be a done deal by sometime next year.

The Saudi-Russian meeting therefore is an indication that Riyadh has understood the changing power politics of this new multi-polar world. And with this has come the realisation that it can no longer afford to depend solely on the US. Thus the recent rapprochement with Moscow represents moves by the kingdom to step out from behind America’s shadow and become a major international player in its own right. It is a profoundly pragmatic move, especially given the increasing Russian clout in its own backyard. Nevertheless, the extent to which Saudi Arabia can bypass its traditional relationship with Washington is, for the time being, anyone’s guess.

The writer is a human rights and constitutional lawyer

Published in Daily Times, October 27^th 2017.