Pakistan’s inflation to stay low in March 2025, but expected to rise in April

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Pakistan’s inflation is projected to remain between 1.0% and 1.5% in March 2025, with a slight increase expected in April. The Finance Division’s monthly report indicates inflation could rise to 2.0% to 3.0% in April. This shift follows a downward trend in recent months, largely due to deflation in food, housing, and transport costs.

Brokerage firm AKD Securities forecasts inflation to drop to 0.84% year-on-year in March, the lowest in six decades. This is attributed to declining petroleum prices, lower electricity tariffs, and controlled food prices. Despite this, a 2.8% rise in food prices will lead to a month-on-month inflation increase of 1.0%.

Pakistan’s inflation had peaked at 38% in May 2023 but has since decreased, with February 2025’s CPI at 1.5%. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate at 12%, citing lower-than-expected inflation in February. However, the committee warned that rising food and energy prices may reverse the current trend.

Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) showed resilience with recent growth, but year-on-year declines remain a concern. Exports, imports, and remittances are all expected to grow, supported by seasonal factors like Ramadan and Eid. Agriculture conditions also remain key, with favorable weather helping boost production and meet targets.