Daily Times

Historically, Muslims were at the forefront of global power, particularly during the Islamic Golden Age (8th to 14th centuries), when empires such as the Abbasid Caliphate, the Ottoman Empire, and the Umayyad Caliphate dominated vast territories.

These empires not only controlled significant portions of the land but were also centres of scientific, cultural, and intellectual advancement. However, the global power dynamics have shifted dramatically in recent centuries. The decline of Muslim empires, especially after the fall of the Ottoman Empire following World War-I, led to the fragmentation of the Muslim world.

Many Muslim-majority regions, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, became subject to colonial rule or intervention by European powers, leading to geopolitical instability that continues today. For example, in 2020, a report by the World Bank indicated that countries in the Arab world were among the lowest in terms of political stability, with many nations like Syria, Yemen, and Libya embroiled in ongoing conflict.

Meanwhile, Western nations, particularly the United States, Russia, and China have gained increasing influence in the region, with military bases and political leverage. For instance, in 2021, the U.S. had over 750 military installations across the globe, many of which are strategically placed in or near Muslim-majority countries.

The consequences of these shifts are evident in the growing influence of non-Muslim powers in the region, often leading to tensions and competition over resources, ideology, and control, leaving the Muslim world increasingly fragmented and dependent on foreign intervention. This stark contrast between past dominance and current geopolitical vulnerability underscores the changing power dynamics in the Muslim world.

The geopolitical condition of the Middle East is undergoing significant transformations, marked by the increasing influence of Western powers, Israel, and China. Historically, the United States has maintained a dominant presence in the region, providing substantial economic and security assistance. For instance, since 1946, the Middle East and North Africa have received more U.S. foreign assistance than any other region.

The Middle East is undergoing significant transformations that challenge traditional perceptions of its boundaries and power structures.

In recent years, China’s role has expanded notably. Trade between China and Middle Eastern countries nearly doubled from $262.5 billion in 2017 to $507.2 billion in 2022, with the Middle East becoming China’s fastest-growing trading partner in 2022, experiencing a 27.1 percent year-on-year increase China’s diplomatic engagements have also intensified. In July 2024, China brokered a reconciliation agreement between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah, resulting in the “Beijing Declaration,” which aimed to form a unity government. Israel continues to assert its strategic interests, particularly in neighbouring territories. In December 2024, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans for an indefinite occupation of a Syrian buffer zone, raising concerns about potential violations of existing ceasefire agreements.

These developments suggest a complex interplay of influences in the Middle East, with Western powers, Israel, and China each pursuing strategic objectives. However, the notion that the region will be entirely conquered or ruled by these entities oversimplifies the intricate and dynamic nature of Middle Eastern geopolitics. Local actors retain significant agency, and the region’s future will likely be shaped by a combination of internal dynamics and external influences.

The Middle East, as a geopolitical entity, is undergoing significant transformations that challenge traditional perceptions of its boundaries and power structures. The recent overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has disrupted longstanding alliances, notably weakening Iran’s influence in the region. This upheaval has enabled Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, to assert itself as a dominant regional power, leveraging strategic alliances and involvement in regional conflicts to expand its influence.

Concurrently, Israel is actively reshaping regional dynamics through military interventions and strategic initiatives aimed at countering Iranian influence and its proxies. These developments indicate a shift from the traditional Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape, suggesting that the region’s future may diverge from its historical identity.

The emergence of a new regional order in the Middle East has the potential to reconfigure power dynamics, potentially weakening the cohesion and influence of the Muslim world. Recent geopolitical developments, such as the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab states (the Abraham Accords) and the growing influence of non-Arab states like Turkey and Iran, suggest a fragmented political landscape. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement with Iran, brokered by China, indicates shifting alliances that may dilute traditional Sunni-Shia power divides but also increase competition for regional dominance.

At the same time, external actors like the United States, Russia, and China are increasingly asserting influence in the region, often leveraging divisions among Muslim-majority nations to advance their strategic interests. The weakening of Pan-Islamic organizations such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) further reflects the inability of the Muslim world to present a united front on critical global issues.

Also, domestic instability in countries like Syria, Yemen, and Libya continues to drain regional resources and attention. Economic challenges, such as high youth unemployment rates (27 percent in MENA in 2023, according to the World Bank) and dependency on oil exports, further limit the ability of these nations to project strength globally. While the region may experience localized cooperation, the broader Muslim world risks diminished collective power in the face of these fragmentations unless stronger multilateral frameworks and economic diversification are pursued to counterbalance external and internal pressures.

Israel’s recent military actions, including the indefinite occupation of the Syrian buffer zone and intensified operations in Gaza, signal its intent to assert greater regional dominance. The fall of Syria’s Assad regime has further weakened Iran’s influence, disrupting its “axis of resistance” and diminishing its regional power. Concurrently, Israel’s economic strength surpasses that of many neighbouring countries, with a GDP per capita significantly higher than Egypt’s $3,500. However, the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict and tensions with groups like Hezbollah and Hamas continue to challenge Israel’s security and international standing. While Israel’s military and economic capabilities position it as a formidable force in the Middle East, the complex geopolitical landscape and persistent conflicts suggest that unchallenged regional dominance remains uncertain.

To counter external influence and Israel’s presence in the Middle East, the Muslim world needs a strategic approach focusing on political unity, economic self-reliance, and diplomatic engagement. Strengthening regional alliances, particularly within the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), is essential to address shared challenges. Economic self-reliance can be achieved through increased intra-regional trade, reducing dependence on external powers. Diplomatically, the Muslim world should advocate for a fair Palestinian resolution and build broader coalitions through international forums. Additionally, empowering civil society and youth to demand accountability is crucial for long-term resilience. A combination of political, economic, and diplomatic strategies will help counter external influence and Israel’s strategic interests in the region.

The writer is a PhD scholar and author of various books on international relations, criminology and gender studies. He can be reached at fastian.mentor@gmail.com