Daily Times

Is Trump going to survive the media and judicial assault regarding the Travel Ban and the US-Mexico Border Wall? Will Modi succeed in transforming secular India into an India overshadowed by Hindutva? And how will Brexit will affect European politics and the fate of the European Union? Although, these questions sound a bit far-fetched, their relevance cannot be denied. The history of the world is witness that almost every century contains certain elements of society in a nation rising against the prevailing status quo.

In the US, Trump’s “Make America Great Again” and subsequent rise to power was a result of his rightist-nationalistic thoughts and fervour. His promises to build the wall, ban on certain Muslim countries and to bring jobs and industry back to the American people paved the public opinion in his favour. Again, Modi’s consolidation of power in India though perceived as a surprise by many was the right-wing extremist Hindutva ideology of the Rashtriya Swayamsavek Sangh (RSS) and the Sangh Parivar with almost 90 years of conspiracies and mischievous plans, which finally paid off. The roughly 53 affiliated organisations of RSS have virtually taken over all of India. The book Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian Muslims (2014) by Dr Muhammad Mujeeb Afzal describes that BJP as the political wing of the RSS.

In Angela Merkel’s Germany, the historical injustices done to the German nation whether it was the Treaty of Versailles, Lend-Lease Agreement, or the occupation and subsequent division of Germany into East and West Germany; have cast an indelible mark on the strategic thinking of the German nation. The policies of Angela Merkel are not only centred on Germany but the role played by German Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier (now German President) in the Iranian Nuclear Deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action-2015); where the P5+1 was in fact dominated by him. To assume that Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall and its re-unification in 1991 again rose to the status of a great power in just 20 years’ time is not entirely incorrect. Seemingly, Brexit happened due to the domination of EU by Germany that was unacceptable for US and UK.

It is a fact that world politics is taking a turn in favour of the right-wing and conservative political parties and leaders. Is it due to the inherited anarchic international structure or a backlash of politicising liberal values around the globe?

The recent statement by Trump that Germany owes money to NATO and US is a clear sign that the great powers are again terrified by the tremendous progress made by the German nation in almost every walk of life. With Francois Fillon or Marine Le Pen or Benoit Hamon as President in Paris, it is certain that France will also leave the EU just like Britain. Marine and Hamon are more inclined towards the right in comparison with Fillon. France is in a constant state of security dilemma due to the growing power and influence of Germany, not only in the EU but also internationally. Whoever comes to power in France, it would lead the Fifth Republic to the path dominated by conservatism and protectionism.

Similarly, the Fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 was translated by many as the emergence of a unipolar world. But with President Putin, Russia has gained the international attention and is determined to preserve the Assad Regime in Syria. This has led many to believe that the international system is increasingly becoming multi-polar. His concrete determination made Forbes magazine declare him as the most powerful man in the world. With Shinzo Abe as the Prime Minster of Japan, the tensions in the Pacific are high. His conservative ambitions are further fuelled by his repeated visits to Trump. The historic Sino-Japan rivalry is bringing Tokyo and Washington much closer and with the blessings of Trump, Abe is increasing its presence in the South China Sea. Trump’s proposal during his election campaign to arm Japan with nuclear arsenal; if materialised would be the beginning of an ugly conflict in the Asia-Pacific.

Interestingly in Austria, right-wing Norbert Hofer was defeated by Alexander Van der Bellen in the 2016 Elections, but it is fascinating that he had 46 percent of the popular vote in his favour. In Turkey with Tayyip Erdogan’s rightist policies, Ankara has regained its regional and international importance. His growing relations with Putin with solid criticism on the West and Israel have made him a perfect rightist-conservative. Likewise, Philippines remained a colony of democratic America for many decades but with Rodrigo Duterte as President, the people of Philippines have given their verdict while breaking the status-quo.

It is a fact that world politics is taking a turn in favour of the right-wing and conservative political parties and leaders. Is it due to the inherited anarchic international structure or a backlash of politicising liberal values around the globe? Many analysts and political minds contemplate and perhaps are sceptical of the “Rise of the Right” on the international level. But provided the changing geopolitical and geostrategic environment, it would not be incorrect to conclude that the phenomenon is not only real but is rising at a remarkable speed. A dimension can be drawn from the above discussion and facts that the ‘New Cold War’ might turn ‘Red Hot’ real soon.

The author can be reached at: mmab11@gmail.com

Published in Daily Times, October 11^th 2017.