Daily Times

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) recently reduced its policy interest rate from 22 percent to 15 percent. This move signals a strategic shift from combating inflation to fostering growth and reflects the central bank’s confidence in stabilizing macroeconomic indicators. With inflation significantly declining from a peak of nearly 40 percent in May 2023 to 7.2 percent in October 2024, the SBP is leveraging this opportunity to stimulate economic activity. However, the implications of this decision extend beyond immediate relief, raising critical questions about its broader impact on Pakistan’s economy.
The reduction in interest rates is expected to lower borrowing costs for businesses and individuals, providing much-needed liquidity to a cash-strapped private sector. Historically, high interest rates have constrained the growth of industries such as manufacturing, construction, and textiles, which are crucial to Pakistan’s economic framework. With credit now more accessible, these sectors are likely to ramp up production, creating employment opportunities and driving economic growth. The construction sector, which contributes approximately 2.5 percent to Pakistan’s GDP, is particularly poised to benefit, as affordable financing can spur housing and infrastructure development.

Agriculture, another cornerstone of Pakistan’s economy, will also gain from reduced financing costs for inputs such as fertilizers, seeds, and machinery. With agriculture contributing around 23 percent to GDP and employing nearly 40 percent of the workforce, improved productivity in this sector could have far-reaching effects on rural livelihoods and food security. By easing credit conditions, the SBP aims to unlock the potential of both large-scale industries and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which constitute over 90 percent of Pakistan’s business landscape.

Without complementary reforms in tax collection, energy pricing, and public sector efficiency, the benefits of lower interest rates may remain limited.

From a fiscal perspective, the lower interest rates are expected to ease the government’s debt servicing burden, which had become unsustainable under previous rate regimes. Domestic debt, currently exceeding Rs. 30 trillion, has been consuming a significant portion of fiscal resources. The recent rate cuts could save the government up to Rs. 1.3 trillion in debt servicing costs during the current fiscal year, freeing up funds for development projects and social spending. This fiscal space could be instrumental in addressing the country’s infrastructure deficits and enhancing public welfare programs.

Despite these potential benefits, the SBP’s decision is not without challenges. Pakistan’s economy remains vulnerable to external shocks, such as fluctuations in global oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties. While inflation has been brought under control, future risks persist, including energy price adjustments and global commodity price volatility. The SBP must remain vigilant to avoid reigniting inflationary pressures, particularly as global financial conditions tighten.

Moreover, while the private sector has welcomed the rate cut, there is a strong push for further reductions to single-digit levels, comparable to regional economies such as India and Bangladesh. Business leaders argue that sustained economic revival requires not only affordable credit but also structural reforms to enhance competitiveness, such as reducing energy costs, improving regulatory frameworks, and fostering innovation.

The interest rate reduction also holds implications for Pakistan’s external sector. With the country receiving a $7 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and stabilizing its foreign exchange reserves, the timing of this monetary easing is crucial. However, maintaining investor confidence will require a careful balancing act between supporting domestic growth and safeguarding external stability. Enhancing export competitiveness through value addition and diversifying trade markets will be critical to mitigating risks associated with the current account deficit.

The broader success of this policy depends on the government’s ability to align fiscal measures with monetary easing. Without complementary reforms in tax collection, energy pricing, and public sector efficiency, the benefits of lower interest rates may remain limited. Furthermore, political stability and governance improvements are essential to sustaining the positive momentum generated by these measures.

The State Bank’s decision to reduce interest rates marks a bold and calculated step toward economic revival, offering a lifeline to struggling industries and households.

While the immediate impacts are promising, translating this policy into long-term economic resilience will require coordinated efforts across all levels of government and the private sector. In a country as complex as Pakistan, where economic vulnerabilities often intersect with political and social challenges, such policy measures must be implemented with precision and foresight. If managed effectively, this interest rate cut could signal the beginning of a more stable and prosperous era for Pakistan.

The writer is a freelance columnist.