Daily Times

It is relatively common for us to forget the recent past. The Western world formerly lauded the emergence of a new neoliberal international order established on Western principles and tenets. This resembled the manner in which the West celebrated the most pivotal times in human history. Currently, circumstances have shifted once more, and the fog is dense, complicating predictions about future events. Are we progressing towards a bipolar world, where each side endeavours to establish its unique realm, or is there still an opportunity for collaboration within the existing international framework?

The dramatization of reality is prevalent in both film and theatre. Upon the conclusion of the Cold War, it was inconceivable to anticipate a global order characterized by three superpowers, not even in the cinema. Nonetheless, the reality is that nothing is constant. The international system has never been as turbulent since the Westphalian period as it is now. In his inaugural address at the BRICS 2024 Summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted, “There exists a significantly less stable balance of power.” This assertion transpired on the same day. Amidst this chaos, concepts must be permanently redefined. Chinese President Xi Jinping articulated an ambitious vision for the BRICS nations, seeking to change global governance, expedite economic growth, and champion the interests of the Global South. Xi, representing fifty per cent of the global population, has called for the BRICS nations to spearhead the establishment of a more equitable and inclusive global system. The Kazan Declaration serves as the foundational instrument for this shift.

The emergence of a quasi-bipolar world order, characterized by a dual structure of an Eastern bloc, is exhibiting initial signs of progress.

The emergence of a quasi-bipolar world order, characterized by a dual structure of an Eastern bloc, is exhibiting initial signs of progression. China is swiftly emerging as a formidable force, possessing capabilities unequivocally superior to those of its allies and adversaries, except the United States. Notwithstanding its economic, demographic, and technical deficiencies, Russia is emerging as a savvy and seasoned global player. This occurs notwithstanding the numerous obstacles confronting Russia. Possessing such capabilities is not always sufficient to be regarded as a powerhouse in international affairs. The paramount aspect to examine is the capacity to convert your material advantage into policy formulation.

The advantages and gains realized post-World War II facilitated the formation of the contemporary international order. Since 1945, a structural shift in the balance of power has occurred, with nations that have amassed economic and political strength under the Bretton Woods system now advocating for an alternative governance framework. Although this may initially seem defiant, China, a country that has derived considerable advantages from the current system as a free rider, is not as revolutionary as other countries. The Chinese government engaged in multilateral platforms and explicitly expressed its willingness to take the initiative under the administration of former President Donald Trump of the United States. In 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China was ready to assume the role of an international leader in free trade. Consequently, China functions more as a stabilizing influence than a revisionist power.

The situation concerning Russia is more ambiguous than that of other nations. Historically influenced by the Soviet and Tsarist periods, the Russian bureaucracy is accustomed to its “governing role” alongside other duties. Each of the 83 distinct regions of the Russian Federation possesses its unique character, which persists. Putin believes that the time has arrived to integrate this history into global politics and to amplify the voices of people who have not enjoyed the same advantages as China. Consequently, Putin’s Russia is increasingly motivated to expand its membership in the BRICS consortium and convert it into a coalition of dissenters. Consequently, Putin emphasized the significance of “enhancing the authority of BRICS” in his address, noting that “over 30 countries have indicated their interest in joining BRICS.”

Recent events have revealed the chaos stemming from a discordant symphony. The discord within this orchestra is attributable to the ongoing rivalry among the factions vying for the lead position. The acceptance of U.S. leadership by the Western bloc remains ambiguous, and the considerable passage of time has led to unresolved problems. Since the Crimean War in 2014, Russia and China have been participating in a clandestine rivalry within the Eastern bloc. It may seem hyperbolic, yet it looks like the entire globe is presently undergoing a condition akin to schizophrenia. This misunderstanding leads to transient decisions and a dynamic network of alliances in the international system while inducing a sense of precariousness among others. Every state, from the least significant entity in the international system to the most prominent actor, lacks a sense of security. In the present environment, it is not uncommon to witness a bombing occurring in the heart of a major city. This perilous scenario originates from the 2016 explosions in Brussels Zaventem and extends to the recent terrorist incident on October 23, 2024, targeting Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) plants in Ankara.

The creation of BRICS Plus demonstrates that global governance is advancing towards a more inclusive framework while it remains fragmented. The BRICS nations may offer a legitimate alternative to Western supremacy as they forge new alliances and expand their influence. Nonetheless, it remains uncertain if this alliance will evolve into a unified and stable entity for the nations of the Global South.

It is indisputable that the BRICS states are leading a significant transformation in the global power equilibrium, potentially redefining the dynamics of international relations for the foreseeable future. Western nations may cease to be the predominant authority in shaping the future of global politics; instead, a coalition of emerging states, each with a vested interest in a new international order, may assume this role. This view posits that the BRICS group is not merely a geopolitical partnership but an embodiment of a more diversified and pluralistic world.

The writer is a freelance columnist.