Daily Times

In a recent address at the Wilson Center, Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb painted an optimistic picture of the country’s economic outlook, highlighting progress in various indicators. However, a closer examination of the data reveals significant discrepancies and raises concerns about the actual state of Pakistan’s economy. The rhetoric of stability and growth may be masking underlying issues that require urgent attention.

Aurangzeb cited the current tax-to-GDP ratio as being between 9-10 percent, with an ambitious target to increase it to 13.5 percent. While this aim sounds encouraging, it is essential to recognize that even at 13.5 percent, Pakistan would still lag behind many regional peers. For context, countries like India and Bangladesh boast ratios above 15 percent, indicating a more robust and sustainable tax base. This low ratio reflects not only a narrow tax base but also systemic issues such as significant informal economic activity and rampant tax evasion.

Moreover, achieving this target is fraught with challenges, given the country’s heavy reliance on indirect taxes, which disproportionately burden lower-income individuals. Rather than signalling a path to fiscal stability, this reliance reveals a structural weakness in Pakistan’s economic framework.

In his speech, Aurangzeb boasted of a 29 percent increase in tax revenues last year and an ambitious expectation of 40 percent growth in the first quarter. At first glance, these figures seem impressive, but they may be misleading.

The rhetoric of stability and growth may be masking underlying issues that require urgent attention.

The nominal growth in tax revenues must be viewed in the context of inflation. If inflation rates hover around 30 percent, the real growth in tax collections could be negligible. Furthermore, the impressive-sounding 29 percent increase could merely reflect a rebound from a particularly low base due to the previous year’s economic downturn. Such growth does not necessarily indicate a sustainable recovery.

Additionally, the projected 40 percent growth in tax revenue is ambitious, especially given the ongoing challenges in effective tax collection and enforcement. Historical data reveals that when economic conditions falter, actual collections often fall short of optimistic forecasts.

The finance minister also claimed that Pakistan had achieved a current account surplus in recent months, attributing this to strong remittances and a stable currency. Since 2018, Pakistan’s current account deficit has shown significant fluctuations, reflecting the country’s economic challenges. In FY 2018, the deficit reached approximately $19 billion, driven by rising imports and stagnant exports.

The situation worsened in FY 2019, with the deficit hitting around $18 billion, prompting urgent economic reforms. By FY 2020, the deficit narrowed to approximately $4 billion, aided by a reduction in imports and increased remittances.

The trend continued into FY 2021, with the current account achieving a surplus of $1.8 billion, the first in five years, largely due to a surge in remittances and export growth amid the pandemic. However, in FY 2022, the deficit widened again to about $17 billion, driven by soaring global oil prices and increased import costs.

As of FY 2023, the current account deficit has further declined, falling below $1 billion by June 2023, indicating some stabilization in external accounts but still reflecting underlying vulnerabilities in the economy. However, it is crucial to analyze the context behind these figures. A reduced current account deficit does not inherently signal robust economic activity; rather, it may simply reflect a decline in imports due to diminished domestic demand.

With imports falling, the lower deficit could be more indicative of a stagnant economy than a thriving one. The country’s import performance has suffered significantly, with data showing a decline of nearly 20 percent year-on-year. This drop can hardly be celebrated as a sign of economic health.

Aurangzeb’s presentation also emphasized the necessity of engaging with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize Pakistan’s economy. While external funding can provide short-term relief, continuous reliance on foreign loans underscores the underlying weaknesses of the economy. It raises concerns about the potential for a debt trap if structural issues are not addressed.

A self-sustaining economy should prioritize domestic growth and resilience over dependency on external assistance. Without meaningful reforms targeting the structural challenges- such as inefficient taxation and a burgeoning informal sector – Pakistan risks falling into a cycle of perpetual borrowing and fiscal instability.

While Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb’s remarks at the Wilson Center may have been intended to inspire confidence, the underlying data tells a different story. Pakistan’s economic indicators reflect a landscape fraught with challenges that cannot be overlooked. Instead of presenting a facade of progress, it is crucial to acknowledge and address the systemic issues plaguing the economy. Only then can Pakistan hope to achieve sustainable growth and true macroeconomic stability.

The narrative must shift from misleading statistics and optimistic projections to a genuine commitment to reform that addresses the roots of the problem. The stakes are high, and the time for action is now.

The writer is Foreign Research Associate, Centre of Excellence, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamabad.