Daily Times

In a 5-0 order, the larger bench of the Supreme Court of Pakistan judged the elected prime minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, to have lacked truthfulness and honesty, and thus disqualified him from the office. Having been resembled with the Godfather by the judges to have been grilled by the JIT members, the fate of Nawaz Sharif and his progeny seemed to have been written on the wall already. Unfortunate it may be that the PML-N parliamentarians and fans failed to read it, the PTI and its supporters proved to be master fortunate teller though. They predicted Nawaz Sharif’s downfall and it happened.

Now that Nawaz Sharif is no longer the country’s prime minister, and has vacated the office, will he and his children be able to survive the references sent to the National Accountability Bureau (NAB)? Will the PML-N survive defections and stay united behind Nawaz Sharif? Can we expect early elections as by January, 2017? And importantly, how is the PML-N likely to behave in the streets? Will the party resort to agitation politics vis-à-vis PTI and ostensibly the establishment?

Herein lies a lesson for Imran Khan in particular and other politicians in general: if one proxy politician has been discarded today — it will be another’s turn tomorrow

To begin with, the present judgment of the Supreme Court has wreaked havoc with Nawaz Sharif, his immediate family and his party. Not only has he been disqualified for life, he will be over 80 after ten years if alive, he and/or his family member(s) may be in jail after six months if proved guilty. This means for next half a year, the Sharif got some serious work cut out for themselves. They will have to satisfy the SC-led accountability court of being not only truthful and honest but also non-corrupt and upright. Moreover, they will have to keep their party intact and prevent it from defections because, as per the norm, low to medium level factionalism does occur whenever the party-in-power comes under crisis. In addition, the PML-N is most likely to project the 5-0 verdict in terms where Nawaz Sharif is viewed, at least by the party cadre, as an innocent victim.

Nevertheless, one variable will stay as constant: regardless of his disqualification and hypothetical conviction and punishment by the (trial) court, PML-N as a party has, over all, remained intact in the past owing to Mr Nawaz , and his replacement from his extended family or else is very likely to diminish the N-league organisationally as well as electorally. Already as per media reports, some commentators are hinting at the formation of a United Muslim League comprising PML-Q, Pagarro League, the Khosas of South Punjab and Jamalis of Balochistan etc. If this materialises, it will pose a challenge to the PML-N especially in Punjab where the latter has been in power since 2008.

As far as PTI is concerned, from its leadership to workers, all seem jubilant. However, the PTI is still in trouble. Imran Khan and Co is facing the very charges in the higher courts that became the ground for Sharif’s oust. Legally, it is very much possible Imran Khan and Jehangir Tareen could be disqualified under article 62(1)(f). This means in the coming months it is not just Nawaz Sharif and his family who is on trial but also the Supreme Court to apply the same law and reasoning in another similar case.

Besides, for the moment the PML-N supporter seems disappointed and desperate for a fight with his arch-rival, the PTI. However, given the peculiar nature of the N’s cadre, where the party relied on a local influential for votes during election time, it is less likely the N-workers will launch agitation politics on behest of Nawaz Sharif for any such move carries the potential to ignite random political violence which the party may not be able to manage and may instead invite law enforcement such as the Rangers. Prolonged engagement of the armed forces in maintaining law and order may not be a good omen for a government that lost an elected prime minister.

Last but not the least, what has happened with Nawaz Sharif yesterday did not happen yesterday: it happened the very day he embraced General Ziaul Haq. Through his political career, he did not hesitate to play with fire. At times, he came in the line of fire intentionally due to poor judgment and pathetic planning. Today, he might have found himself to be on the wrong side of the establishment and the latter seemingly is not willing to rescue him. Herein lies a lesson for Imran Khan in particular and other politicians in general: if one proxy politician has been discarded today, it will be another’s turn tomorrow.

The writer is Head, Department of Social Sciences, Iqra University, Islamabad. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright Fellow. He tweets @ejazbhatty

Published in Daily Times, July 29^th , 2017.