Daily Times

Pakistan’s foreign relations play a pivotal role in its economic, political, and security dynamics. With the shifting global geopolitical environment, Pakistan finds itself at a crossroads of maintaining delicate relationships with global powers, regional neighbours, and multilateral institutions. The outcome of these diplomatic efforts directly impacts the country’s economic growth, security, and international standing. The success and failures of Pakistan’s foreign policy are intricately tied to its historical and current geopolitical environment, and its ability to adapt in a rapidly evolving world.

Historically, Pakistan’s diplomacy has been shaped by its geographic location, between India and Afghanistan, and its close ties with the Muslim world, particularly the Gulf countries. In the aftermath of Partition in 1947, Pakistan sought to align itself with Western powers, especially the United States, to counterbalance India’s larger economy and military capabilities. This led to significant military and economic aid from the U.S. but also deepened Pakistan’s reliance on foreign assistance. Fast forward to the present day, and the country’s diplomacy is focused on balancing its regional interests with broader global trends, which increasingly revolve around economic interdependence and political multipolarity.

One of the most successful aspects of Pakistan’s diplomacy has been its long-standing relationship with China. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a prime example of how bilateral relations can translate into tangible economic benefits. CPEC has facilitated the construction of infrastructure projects, energy plants, and transportation networks across Pakistan, creating jobs and stimulating economic growth. The Gwadar port, a critical hub in CPEC, holds the promise of turning Pakistan into a key player in global trade, linking China with the Arabian Sea. However, while China has invested billions, there are concerns that this deep engagement may lead to a debt trap for Pakistan. The question of how much economic sovereignty Pakistan retains in the face of heavy Chinese investment is becoming increasingly relevant, especially as Western powers grow more sceptical of Chinese influence globally.

Beyond China, Pakistan’s regional diplomacy has been most fraught with its neighbour India. The two nuclear-armed nations have a long history of conflict, primarily centred on the disputed region of Kashmir. Diplomatic relations between the two countries have remained stagnant, with regular military standoffs, cross-border firing, and a lack of significant engagement. The abrogation of Article 370 by India in August 2019, which revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, was a diplomatic disaster for Pakistan, pushing the issue of Kashmir even further into the international spotlight. Pakistan has consistently raised the issue in global forums, including the United Nations, but its efforts have largely been met with apathy by major global powers, particularly the United States and European Union, which view the issue as a bilateral matter rather than a global concern. The economic costs of this diplomatic deadlock are significant. The constant military preparedness along the Line of Control (LoC) with India consumes substantial resources that could otherwise be invested in economic development.

Turning to Afghanistan, Pakistan’s role in the peace process has been crucial, particularly after the U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. Pakistan has historically maintained ties with the Taliban, which some argue has given it a seat at the table in negotiations. However, the return of the Taliban has also created significant challenges. The instability in Afghanistan has led to a new wave of refugees, which strains Pakistan’s already fragile economy. Moreover, the resurgence of militant groups like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), operating from Afghan soil, poses severe security risks. While Pakistan has sought to play the role of a mediator, the country has yet to see substantial economic dividends from its involvement in the Afghan peace process. Trade with Afghanistan remains disrupted, and the security situation on the western border remains precarious.

Pakistan’s ties with the Gulf region, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have historically been strong, bolstered by shared religious and cultural affiliations. Remittances from Pakistanis working in the Gulf contribute significantly to Pakistan’s economy. In recent years, however, Pakistan’s relationship with the Gulf states has faced challenges. Saudi Arabia, historically one of Pakistan’s closest allies, has been increasingly aligning with India, particularly in the fields of trade and investment. Pakistan’s refusal to take sides in the Yemen conflict, despite Saudi pressure, also created diplomatic strain. Nonetheless, remittances from the Gulf region continue to provide a vital economic buffer for Pakistan, and diplomatic efforts are underway to revitalize these relationships.

Pakistan’s foreign relations are also heavily influenced by its dealings with global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The recurring financial crises Pakistan faces often lead to bailout packages from the IMF, which come with stringent conditions, including austerity measures that have adverse impacts on the populace. Inflation, reduction of subsidies, and public discontent are frequently direct outcomes of these programs. While Pakistan’s engagement with the IMF is crucial for short-term financial stability, it points to a deeper failure of economic diplomacy-an over-reliance on foreign financial assistance rather than fostering sustainable growth through trade and investment.

In terms of global diplomacy, Pakistan’s relationship with the United States has been one of sharp highs and lows. Pakistan was a key U.S. ally during the Cold War and the Global War on Terror (GWOT). However, as U.S. priorities shifted towards India, especially in the context of countering China’s rise, Pakistan’s significance in Washington’s eyes diminished. Today, while there is still military and intelligence cooperation, particularly regarding counterterrorism, economic and developmental cooperation has largely stalled. Pakistan’s challenge lies in re-engaging the U.S. on issues of mutual interest, such as regional security and economic cooperation, without being overshadowed by India’s rising global stature.

The failures in Pakistan’s diplomacy are particularly evident in its inconsistent policy stances in multilateral forums and its approach to regional power dynamics. Pakistan’s position in the Middle East, for instance, has often appeared ambiguous. The Abraham Accords, which saw several Arab states normalize relations with Israel, posed a diplomatic challenge for Pakistan. While Islamabad has consistently maintained a pro-Palestinian stance, its refusal to take a definitive position in the changing Middle Eastern landscape risks isolating it from potential economic partnerships. Pakistan’s reluctance to engage with Israel on any diplomatic front, despite the normalization efforts by key Gulf allies, is indicative of its broader struggle to balance ideological commitments with pragmatic diplomacy.

The global stage presents opportunities as well. Pakistan’s active participation in the United Nations, particularly through its contributions to peacekeeping missions, has earned it a degree of respect within the international community. Pakistan has been one of the largest contributors to UN peacekeeping forces, and its role in conflict zones like Congo and Sudan has showcased its commitment to global peace. This has earned Pakistan a positive image internationally, though the economic benefits of such soft power remain limited. The challenge for Pakistan is to leverage this positive diplomatic capital into economic partnerships and trade agreements that can help its ailing economy.

A SWOT analysis of Pakistan’s diplomacy reveals a complex picture. Pakistan’s strength lies in its strategic geographical location, which positions it as a potential gateway for trade between South Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Its strong military and nuclear capabilities provide it with a certain level of deterrence and regional influence. However, the weaknesses are glaring. Pakistan’s over-reliance on a few key allies, particularly China and Saudi Arabia, makes it vulnerable to shifting global power dynamics. Its inconsistent foreign policy, especially about India and the Middle East, undermines its broader diplomatic objectives.

The opportunities for Pakistan, however, are vast. As global power shifts towards a multipolar world, Pakistan can align itself with emerging powers like Turkey and Russia, both of whom have shown interest in expanding ties with Islamabad. Turkey’s growing influence in the Middle East and Central Asia offers Pakistan a potential partner that shares both religious and strategic interests. Similarly, Russia’s increasing engagement in South Asia presents Pakistan with an opportunity to diversify its diplomatic and economic partnerships, especially in the energy and defence sectors.

The threats to Pakistan’s diplomatic standing are equally significant. The instability in Afghanistan continues to pose a security and economic risk. The possibility of renewed conflict with India, particularly over Kashmir, remains a constant threat. Moreover, the shifting alliances in the Middle East, particularly the growing ties between Israel and Gulf states, challenge Pakistan’s traditional alliances. Economic instability, compounded by external debts and an over-reliance on foreign assistance, threatens to undermine Pakistan’s ability to conduct effective diplomacy.

Global examples highlight both the challenges and opportunities Pakistan faces. Countries like Turkey and Malaysia have successfully balanced regional and global diplomacy to their economic advantage. Turkey’s active foreign policy, particularly under President Erdo?an, has allowed it to engage with both Western and Eastern powers, ensuring a diversified approach to diplomacy. Malaysia, under Mahathir Mohamad, navigated its economic crises by engaging with both Western financial institutions and Eastern powers like China, ensuring that it did not become overly reliant on any one partner. These examples provide valuable lessons for Pakistan as it seeks to navigate the complex web of regional and global diplomacy.

Pakistan’s diplomatic landscape is marked by a mixture of successes and failures. Its long-standing relationships with China and Saudi Arabia continue to yield benefits, but over-reliance on these alliances exposes vulnerabilities. Diplomatic efforts with Afghanistan and India remain fraught with challenges, while Pakistan’s engagement with global powers like the U.S. and multilateral institutions remains critical for economic stability. As Pakistan navigates a multipolar world, its ability to balance regional dynamics with global diplomacy will be crucial in shaping its future economic and political trajectory.

The writer is a financial expert and can be reached at jawadsaleem.1982@gmail.com. He tweets @JawadSaleem1982.