Daily Times

More Republicans are warning that the election of Kamala Harris as president could lead to World War-III.

Republicans further assert that a Trump presidency would eliminate that threat. And their so-called reasoning was that if Trump had won in 2020, the Gaza War would never have started and the Ukraine conflict would have been resolved.

People are entitled to their opinions regardless of reality. Facts are different. In the case of those who see the likelihood of global war as possible, their argument goes like this. China is flexing its economic might as it embarks on a major military buildup. China’s President Xi Jinping has directed his military to “be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027.

Vladimir Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons against NATO if it allows Ukraine to use Western systems to attack deeply into Russia or intervenes in some form, the war in Gaza is expanding to Lebanon. Iran is increasing its “malign” terrorist and cyber activities.

All that is true. But a deeper inspection is needed. The use of thermonuclear weapons in a world war cannot be discounted.

Thermonuclear weapons are 1000 times more powerful than nuclear weapons. Extinction of much of society would follow in America, Europe and Russia. As leaders of the US, Russia and China have maintained, nuclear war must never be fought and can never be won.

Despite Putin’s threats, Russia does not have the ability to launch a conventional attack west against NATO.

Since a global war risks becoming a nuclear war, deterrence will work. As Xi’s direction to prepare to invade Taiwan by 2027, China will not have the military capability measured in thousands of ships and small craft and hundreds of thousands of troops to launch a direct amphibious assault. It has other, non-military options from economic blockade to regime change from within.

Despite Putin’s threats, Russia does not have the ability to launch a conventional attack west against NATO. In every category other than tactical nuclear weapons, NATO has an overwhelming military superiority over Russia.

Five other wars in the Middle East – 1948; 1956; 1967; 1973; and the 1982 invasion of Lebanon did not escalate globally. Iran’s malign activities, especially cyber, are not new. Thus, if an objective, fact-based analysis is made, no matter how dangerous conditions may superficially look, no evidence is forthcoming that suggests a world war looms.

War by accident or miscalculation is a different issue. We have read The March of Folly. The closest the US and USSR came to nuclear war was not the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 but a relatively obscure NATO exercise called Able Archer in 1983 that almost led to disaster. Moscow erroneously thought NATO was launching a first strike. It was not.

About those who maintain that in a second Trump term, neither the war in Gaza nor the invasion of Ukraine would have taken place, history is an unkind referee.

The disastrous Afghan withdrawal is cited as the basis for convincing Hamas and Russia that a Biden administration would tolerate or appease any aggressive action on their part.

The Trump administration signed the Doha Accords in 2019 with the Taliban promising to withdraw from Afghanistan by May 2021 provided the Taliban did not attack Americans. The Afghan government was not present. And Trump would order complete US withdrawal from Afghanistan in December 2020. That order was not followed. Nor was his invitation to the Taliban to join him at Camp David on 9/11, 2019.

The accord was regarded as “erratic” by National Security Advisor John Bolton and so distasteful that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo refused to sign it, directing negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad to that duty. Had Trump been in office, the US would still have withdrawn. And while that proved to be a disaster, that could have happened to Trump.

One of the achievements of the Trump administration was the Abraham Accords that brought Israel and the Gulf states closer ultimately leading to mutual recognition with Saudi Arabia. Iran could not tolerate that happening. October 7th ensured recognition was on hold.

Whether Trump was president or not, Putin would still have invaded Ukraine. The reason was that Putin expected to seize control of Kyiv and thus Ukraine within days. Whoever was the US president made no difference.

History and facts count. If both do, crying “ready, fire, aim” may be a bit premature. Let us look more closely before predicting a looming world war.

The writer is a senior advisor at Washington, DC’s Atlantic Council and a published author.